Best bets for 2019 MLB home run leader
The 2019 MLB home run leader prop is loaded with players to choose from. Using some Statcast metrics and other projections, here are our top three candidates for the upcoming season.
Favorite - Giancarlo Stanton (+700)
It's easy to point out the rough patches of Giancarlo Stanton's first season with the New York Yankees, whether it be the 16-game stretch in which he struck out 28 times and hit zero homers or the four separate times he went 10-plus games without a jack. He was never going to duplicate his 59-homer season from 2017, but a trying start to his Yankees tenure and the collective onslaught of round-trippers throughout the lineup somewhat clouded the 38 that Stanton effortlessly parked last year.
Stanton continues to mash at a torrid pace, ranking in the league's top 10 in average exit velocity in each of the previous four seasons and top 5 in three of them. It's scary to think he crushed 38 homers last season despite barreling a career-low 15.1 percent of his balls after averaging 19.2 percent in the previous three years. FanGraphs projects Stanton to bash a league-high 45 long balls in 2019, five more than the next-leading hitter. If he can avoid the slumps he endured last season, Stanton should own this department.
Underdog - Matt Olson (+3300)
Oakland Athletics first baseman Matt Olson is on the verge of becoming one of the league's prolific power hitters. His potential was on display in 2017 when he slugged 24 homers in 59 games in his age-23 season and during stretches of his 29-homer campaign last year. His exit velocity in 2018 trumped that of J.D. Martinez and Khris Davis, while his average home run distance edged out Stanton and Mike Trout's respective clips.
A player who ranked No. 5 in hard-hit percentage (52 percent) last season and has a swing tailored to launching the ball out of the yard, Olson deserves a second look.
Long shot - Rhys Hoskins (+5000)
Rhys Hoskins of the Philadelphia Phillies has flashed raw power ever since he entered the majors. After shattering a string of MLB home run records down the stretch of the 2017 campaign, he quietly hit 34 last season despite a massive dip in slugging percentage. Hoskins is another Statcast savant, ranking No. 4 among big-league qualified hitters last season with an average launch angle of 22.4 degrees. Hoskins could be in for a huge year with more protection in the lineup and a return to his natural position at first base. Of all the long plus-money picks, he's our favorite.
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.