Why the Padres are the right fit for Harper, Machado, other big guns

With Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and many other considerable talents remaining on both the free-agent and trade markets during another interminably tepid offseason, something has to give; or rather someone.

The San Diego Padres have entered the fray, granting respite from the back-and-forth speculation about which of the Philadelphia Phillies or Chicago White Sox would strike first and sign one of the top free agents. After expressing interest in Machado, the Padres met with Harper on Thursday and appear interested in at least kicking the tires on a possible deal.

Past that, they're a player in the J.T. Realmuto trade bonanza and are eyeing veteran left-hander Gio Gonzalez. While interest in acquiring Corey Kluber from Cleveland has been muddied by the team's reported intention to flip him were a deal to materialize, the Padres have their fingers in a lot of pies. And they should. Let's take a look at five key reasons why San Diego is the perfect fit for each and all of the names they've been connected to.

How the West was won

First and foremost, the National League West is in a state of transition. The Arizona Diamondbacks are essentially rebuilding after trading franchise staple Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis while watching outfielder A.J. Pollock and southpaw Patrick Corbin leave via free agency. The San Francisco Giants have no identity other than "old," and aren't expected to be super competitive right away - especially if they eventually trade ace Madison Bumgarner.

That leaves the Rockies and reigning division champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Colorado was the surprise of the league when it eked into the postseason in 2018 on the back of a young and impressive starting rotation. Its top addition this offseason has been veteran infielder Daniel Murphy. Top prospect Brendan Rodgers will presumably make the jump at some point in 2019, and the club will also have a full season of the speedy and versatile Garrett Hampson.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers signed Pollock and haven't done much else other than jettisoning Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, and Alex Wood to Cincinnati in what amounted to a salary dump (that initially looked like a road toward Harper).

If the Padres sign Harper, Machado, or both, it's immediately more impressive than what either top division has done. Topping it off with Realmuto and/or another trade would insert them into the discussion as the favorite to come out of the wild West. But haven't we been here before?

It's different this time, we swear!

Padres general manager A.J. Preller went for it in a big way prior to the 2015 season by making the following moves:

• Signed P James Shields to four-year, $75-million contract
• Traded for OF Justin Upton
• Traded for OF Matt Kemp
• Traded for OF Wil Myers in three-team deal that cost San Diego Trea Turner
• Traded for RP Craig Kimbrel, OF B.J. Upton

After all that fanfare, the Padres went 74-88 (three fewer wins than the year before) to finish fourth in the division. In an admission of defeat, Preller dismantled the core swiftly. By the middle of 2016, Myers was the only player listed above remaining on the roster.

Kemp was bad with the Padres, though he had been declining since his near-MVP campaign in 2011. Upton was better, and Shields wasn't an unmitigated disaster, but the wins didn't follow so the team cut bait. It didn't work then, but that doesn't mean a similar approach will have an identical fate. Now, the Padres are in a much better position to succeed.

Harper, Machado, and Realmuto are all among a different breed of baseball player at this point in their careers than the crew acquired in 2015 was. They are superstars. These guys can anchor a team's offense for a decade to come and help issue in an era of competition heretofore unseen by the Padres faithful. Harper's ceiling is higher than Kemp's or Upton's ever would have been, and Machado has consistently been among the best hitting infielders since he debuted.

Additionally, the Padres have built a better supporting cast by re-stocking the farm system and otherwise cutting costs. And now, Preller has a ton of flexibility.

Payroll and prospects pave the way

Eric Hosmer's contract aside, the Padres aren't hamstrung financially. The projected payroll for the 25-man roster currently sits at just north of $80 million, according to Cot's Contracts. Adding one of the top names even at a massive $30-million annual hit wouldn't even put the team's 2019 payroll above the league average of $121.4 million, per Spotrac. Adding both Machado and Harper at identical deals worth $30 million annually, the Padres still wouldn't be at the same level as the Dodgers, Red Sox, or Yankees.

This has been made possible in part by how well the San Diego has developed the farm system. The Padres have a league-record 10 players on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 prospects list including soon-to-be promoted Fernando Tatis Jr., ranked as the second-best in the game after Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Eventually, long-term retention of those players will become tricky - especially with Hosmer's deal being on the books through 2025. But, the now is what's important for a franchise that has never won a World Series and has only made it to the Fall Classic twice (losing to the Tigers in 1984 and a series sweep at the hands of the Yankees dynasty in 1998).

Even with a top-shelf system, prospects are never a certainty. Recent highly ranked Padres prospects Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot haven't exactly hit the ground running since they reached the pros. They're certainly expendable for a player like Harper.

As the other young players graduate to the majors, it's paramount to surround them with complementary pieces that push the team over the top. Harper, Machado, and Realmuto would all help in that regard. Sure, they already added second baseman Ian Kinsler, but he's not the impact name he used to be.

It'd be a bad look to move Tatis or electric 19-year-old southpaw MacKenzie Gore, but the pitching pool is deep even beyond those in the top 100. Use the surplus to address needs, whether that's at catcher, third base, or the starting rotation.

It's San Diego, it's gorgeous

Besides being closer to home for Vegas-native Harper (spring training is in Arizona, too), it's hard to argue with the Southern California climate, especially since residents of Philadelphia and Chicago can find themselves trapped in the middle of a polar vortex during winter.

Plus, Petco Park is one of MLB's nicest ballparks, consistently ranking near the top in terms of overall aesthetic.

San Diego may not be the metropolis of New York, Chicago, or Los Angeles, but its agreeable climate and proximity to the Pacific Ocean should be a major selling point. Playing half the season at one of the best stadiums around isn't bad either. It's also the only game in town with the Chargers now playing in L.A., so a winning Padres team would rule the city.

Spite, the great equalizer

The entire offseason has been one giant unfulfilling game of chicken. Every team in baseball should, in theory, be actively interested in signing generational talents to long-term deals. They can help now and later. With the market appearing much smaller, the Phillies and White Sox have become the only obvious options.

Maybe those franchises are trying to squeeze as much savings as possible in contract negotiations, or maybe not. Either way, neither Harper nor Machado have been bowled over by the offers on the table or they'd probably have contracts by now. This kind of hubris could open the door for a team like the Padres to swoop in.

They'll still need starting pitching - the rotation is a bit of a mess - but that can be addressed by trade, free agency next offseason, or internal promotion through the stacked system.

Hey, they landed Hosmer (a Scott Boras client, like Harper) at the last minute a year ago. Please, kick it up another notch, San Diego, and save us all from this miserable winter.