In this five-part series, theScore's MLB editors break down the pros and cons of signing the top free agents in this year's class and predict where they'll end up. Today, we're looking at J.D. Martinez, a one-time All-Star who split last season with the Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks.
Pros/Cons
The Power is Real
It's not every day you can sign the "King Kong of Slug."
Martinez is coming off a torrid second half that saw him bash 29 home runs in 62 games with the Diamondbacks, finishing with 45 on the year in just 119 games. It's the fourth straight season in which he's clubbed at least 20 homers, and he's one of 12 players to hit at least 100 home runs over the last three seasons - despite missing 89 games.
The 30-year-old led the majors with a .690 slugging percentage last season - more than 50 points higher than Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, and Aaron Judge. Martinez's 9.6 home runs per at-bat was also the best mark in baseball among players with at least 450 plate appearances. There's simply not a better offensive threat on the free-agent market than Martinez.
More than just a HR hitter
As astonishing as Martinez's power is, he's not just an all-or-nothing hitter. Martinez posted a .305 average, .375 on-base percentage, 61 doubles, and five triples in 239 games over the last two seasons. Of the 16 players to hit at least 65 homers during that time, Martinez ranked third in average and fourth in OBP.
While he did reach triple-digit strikeouts in each of the last three seasons, Martinez's 26 percent strikeout rate was just the 26th-highest in the majors, below All-Stars Cody Bellinger, Justin Upton, Aaron Judge, and Miguel Sano. He also walked during 10.8 percent of his at-bats, a number equal to Nelson Cruz, Justin Turner, Corey Seager, and Mookie Betts.
A defensive liability
Martinez can be a savior at the plate, though it's best not to rely too heavily on his glove. The seven-year veteran has spent his entire career serving in the corner outfield, with the last three seasons coming exclusively in right.
Over the past two seasons, Martinez has been crushed by advanced defensive metrics. He's posted minus-27 defensive runs saved, a minus-24.9 ultimate zone rating, and 10 errors over that time while contributing just six outfield assists. Of the 282 outfielders to play at least 100 innings since 2016, Martinez ranks 279th in DRS, and last in UZR.
Agent Scott Boras hopes to land a $200-million deal for Martinez, but as the market has dictated in the past with names such as Mark Trumbo, teams aren't willing to pay a premium for sluggers who are defensive liabilities.
Best fits
Boston Red Sox
- Martinez would immediately remedy the Red Sox need for power. Boston finished last in the American League in homers in 2017, and slotting the right-handed hitting slugger into the middle of the lineup would once again give them the formidable bat they lost when David Ortiz retired. Signing Martinez would only cost the Red Sox money, as he does not come attached with draft-pick compensation. With a young outfield already in place, Martinez would be relegated to designated hitting duties, unless he was open to working out at first base. Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has familiarity with Martinez from their days with the Tigers.
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Martinez posted the best stretch of his career during his short stint in Arizona. Despite only arriving in August, Martinez finished third on the team in home runs, and was a major part in the club reaching the postseason for the first time since 2011. While both parties expressed interest in reuniting this winter, the requested $200-million price tag will likely keep the D-Backs out of contention. Should the cost drop significantly, expect Arizona to try to retain Martinez.
San Francisco Giants
- Much like the Red Sox, the Giants are in search of an impact bat in the middle of the order, and have also been heavily linked to Stanton. San Francisco ranked last in the majors in home runs and OPS last season and didn't have a single player hit more than 18 homers. Deploying Martinez defensively at AT&T Park could be a bit of an adventure, and his arrival could push fan favorite Hunter Pence to the bench or out the door, but if Martinez can help them score runs, the club will likely be more than satisfied with the trade-off.
Prediction
Martinez signs a 5-year, $125-million deal with the Red Sox.
Check out the previous installments in this series:
