Euro 2020 semifinal betting preview


And then there were four.

The semifinalists head to London's Wembley Stadium with all four nations just two wins away from being crowned European champions.

Italy (+140) Draw (+215) Spain (+210)
England (-140) Draw (+265) Denmark (+420)

Italy vs. Spain
July 6, 3 p.m.

Italy is out to book its first trip to a major final since its 4-0 beatdown to Spain in the 2012 Euros. The Italians are worthy favorites to avenge that loss. They're fresh off a master class against Belgium, with Roberto Mancini acing his team selection. Giorgio Chiellini, back from injury, provided a big boost, while Federico Chiesa was superb in his return to the XI. Since Chiesa will undoubtedly start again ahead of Domenico Berardi, Mancini's only decision is whether Andrea Belotti should lead the line ahead of Ciro Immobile, who's really struggled in the knockout stages.

But confidence will be high in the Azzurri camp. They were energetic and enterprising in attack against the world's top-ranked team while surrendering very little in defense. The Red Devils' only goal resulted from a questionable penalty decision, and they only managed to create some isolated chances on the counter.

A devastating injury to Leonardo Spinazzola is a blow to Italy's back line, but can Spain take advantage? Ferran Torres and Cesar Azpilicueta don't offer much pace down the right flank. La Roja rely heavily on their midfield to dictate the tempo and generate chances for the front three, which is a concern versus the Italians.

Italy just bossed the middle of the park against a terrific Belgium midfield, with the trio of Jorginho, Marco Verratti, and Nicolo Barella hardly putting a foot wrong. Spain doesn't match up well, meaning chance creation will be very difficult for Luis Enrique's side. That's especially a problem given its profligacy in front of goal. Add in the fact that fatigue will be an issue for Spain after requiring extra time in each of its last two matches, and Italy is good value here to book a place in the final.

Pick: Italy (+140)

England vs. Denmark
July 7, 3 p.m.

One step closer to bringing it home, England faces a deceptively difficult test versus a Denmark side that's much more than a feel-good story. The Danes just squeaked through the group stage but were significantly better than their record suggested, outplaying all three opponents. They've been nothing short of excellent in the knockouts, growing stronger as the tournament's progressed.

Kasper Hjulmand has done an excellent job with this team. The Danes are organized, disciplined, and very tough to break down. They're professional in their approach and work incredibly well together. Their semifinal appearance should come as no surprise based on recent pre-Euro results, either, as they took four points from two matches against England in the Nations League, including a 1-0 win at Wembley in October.

Having fans in the stadium will be a boost for England, but it's still going to be far from straightforward against a Denmark side that plays a similar brand of football. The Danes possess some real quality in all four phases and are very physical when they need to be. England still has the edge in that regard, but Denmark is very comfortable playing these sorts of games.

This will be very similar to England's round of 16 contest against Germany, which was on a knife's edge until the final 15 minutes - and even then it could've ended very differently had Timo Werner finished. The Three Lions should advance to their first European Championship final due to an edge in quality, but they're overvalued here coming off a 4-0 beatdown of a Ukraine side that had little business being in a quarterfinal. Denmark will make life a lot more difficult for England in a match that could need an extra 30 minutes - and perhaps penalties - to decide.

Pick: Draw (+265)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Euro 2020 semifinal betting preview
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