EPL Matchweek 6 best bets: Spurs to capitalize on Fulham's defensive woes

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We didn't get off to the greatest of starts last weekend, losing each of our first two plays. Thankfully, West Ham came through Sunday with a juicy +210 victory to prevent our first losing weekend of the campaign.

We'll look to keep the streak alive - and scrape together some more profits - with three plays for the matchweek ahead.

Leeds (+220) @ Brentford (+110)
Sept 3, 10:00 a.m. EST

Brentford have claimed at least one point in four of five games this season and sit a respectable 10th in the table. Yet, they probably deserve better.

They sit sixth in the EPL in expected points with eight, putting them behind only Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham, and Brighton.

With only six points earned, Brentford sit two behind their expected total. Only Liverpool (2.25 below) have further underperformed xPTS thus far.

Saturday could be a get-right spot against Leeds United. While Leeds are off to a nice start to the campaign, they haven't enjoyed much success on the road. They settled for a draw against a mediocre Southampton side and were blanked by Brighton.

Additionally, Brentford have played just two home games. They thrashed Manchester United 4-0 scoreline and battled Everton to a draw despite a rather large disadvantage in expected goals.

With Brentford coming off consecutive 1-1 draws, there's value in backing them to bag three points in a winnable home fixture.

Bet: Brentford (+110)

Fulham (+500) @ Tottenham (-220)
Sept 3, 10:00 a.m. EST

Fulham are a fun side to watch, but with only four teams having claimed more points, they've overachieved in the early going.

While their offensive process has been good, Fulham's play without the ball has left a lot to be desired. They've allowed 9.14 expected goals through five fixtures, which is more than all but Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth.

Spurs have played well thus far, especially offensively. They're tied for fourth in goals and sit fifth in expected goals generated.

Led by Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son, Tottenham is more than capable of exploiting softer defenses, as evidenced by its recent 2-0 victory over Nottingham.

Back at home after a draw, I expect Spurs to dominate the ball and create chances aplenty en route to a multi-goal victory.

Bet: Tottenham -1.5 (+120)

Arsenal (+153) @ Manchester United (+157)
Sept 4, 11:30 a.m. EST

Arsenal are off to a fantastic start this season. Many of their new players have transitioned seamlessly and hit the ground running for the Gunners.

They've dominated at both ends of the pitch, sitting third in the Premier League in expected goals generated and first in expected goals allowed. Only City have fared better analytically thus far.

With all that being said, Arsenal have benefited from a soft schedule to begin their campaign. Outside of Crystal Palace, they haven't really played anybody of worth.

Leicester City, Bournemouth, and Aston Villa all rank in the bottom four in terms of expected points. They've combined to win only two of 14 fixtures.

Arsenal have also played the recently promoted Fulham, who are weak defensively.

I'm not knocking Arsenal; you can only play the teams in front of you and they've played them very well. I'm just not sure they're as untouchable as it seems.

Meanwhile, Manchester United are probably a little undervalued. Everyone was quick to pile on following consecutive losses to open the season, but, the Brentford game aside, things haven't been as bad as they've been made out to be.

A 2-1 defeat to Brighton - whose expected goal process has only been bested by City, Arsenal, and Liverpool - is hardly a cause for embarrassment. Plus, United have won two in a row.

I think Erik ten Hag's side is going to be up for this game against a rival on home soil. United will be the first club to cause Arsenal to drop points.

Bet: Draw (+245)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

EPL Matchweek 6 best bets: Spurs to capitalize on Fulham's defensive woes
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