Quote of the Weekend
“I made the call to keep him on the pitch because of the signs he was giving. He was determined to continue and looked concentrated, driven and focused enough for me not to make the call to replace him. The saves he did after the incident proved that right.”
-Andre Villas-Boas on why he decided to leave Hugo Lloris on the pitch despite his losing consciousness following a shin to the face from Everton’s Lukaku. I guess “saves” and not “good neurological health” are what determines right and wrong in these situations.
Five Things We Unlearned This Weekend
1. Liverpool can ride their way to the top on the Suarez/Sturridge partnership alone
Brendan Rodgers’ compelling 3-5-2 has allowed, for now, the return of the two striker system in English football. And both Suarez and Sturridge have lived up to the billing this season with six and ten goals between them respectively. This has meant a lot of nostalgia for the days of Cole and Yorke and Morientes and Raul and etc. etc. and some fairly easy op-eds about the return of the good old days.
Those op-eds are deserved. The problem isn’t with Suarez and Sturridge exactly, even though the love affair between the two was shaken a little after Suarez missed with a desperate Sturridge screaming at him in disgust at the Emirates on Saturday. Rather, the problem is with the means Rodgers has accommodated them, with the use of wing-backs. In attack, the formation works very well—both Suarez and Sturridge can pour forward happy in the support of the additional wide players to over load the opposition back four.
In defence, well…Arsenal’s first goal is a good example of what can happen when things fall apart.
Liverpool’s wide players were still tracking back during an effective Arsenal counter allowing Santi Cazorla the time to rebound his own header off the woodwork after an early cross from Bacary Sagna. This is one of the problems with the formation—you need discipline to ensure everyone tracks back in defence to make up for the thin numbers at the back in the attacking phase. A goal doesn’t matter as much when you’re one or two ahead and/or playing lower calibre opposition. But in an away match against a rampant Arsenal, there was always a risk of things going pear-shaped.
Liverpool’s shots ratio is low in large part due to the high number of shots conceded. Rodgers will need to find a way to mitigate the damage whilst keeping his two most effective attacking players happy.
2. Newcastle are a crappy team
Nerds and ne’er-do-wells know that two metrics are always better than one. For those of us who’ve been following Newcastle for a while, there were two particular statistics which gave us decent evidence Alan Pardew’s struggling Toon would improve in spite of itself.
Readers of this site will already know which ones…TSR and PDO.
Newcastle’s shot ratio is the fifth highest in the league, and their shots ratio in a tied game state (that is, untainted by goal effects) is the second highest, behind Spurs (although I don’t know how many minutes they enjoyed at a tied scoreline than other teams). And yet Newcastle have been kind of mediocre, with a 3-2-4 record heading into Saturday’s home match against Chelsea. And so we glance and at their PDO and…yep. Fourth worst in the league.
And it’s not in one area either. Both their save and shot percentage, which largely reflects random variation, are low. Again, the lesson here is simple and effective. Newcastle are doing the right things but getting some raw luck on the business end of either side of the pitch. That tick of the random needle went decidedly in their favour on Saturday, including a wonderful free header from Yoan Gouffran on a set-piece assist from Yohan Cabaye. It would not be a mistake to bank on Newcastle ticking up even higher as the weeks pile up.
3. Fulham are going to get better at some point, right?
This is what Martin Jol believes about Fulham, the West London club that is just sort of inconsistent in his eyes:
“It is hot and cold with us. You have strengths and weaknesses and sometimes we show a few weaknesses, and sometimes we show a few strengths, because we have got good players.”
Jol is right. Basically the names on paper and Kasami’s goal of the year candidate in their 1-4 win against the lowly Crystal Palace are the only strengths in this team. Fulham take way fewer shots than they concede to opposition teams, more so than any other team in the table, despite the presence of players like Bryan Ruiz and Dmitar Berbatov up front. And they are on par, as far as luck is concerned, with average save and shot percentages, so no bad/good luck at play.
Fulham, in short, are terrible, a team whose players are likely doing what they can in spite of the manager. Their 1-3 loss against Manchester United on Saturday was about as pro forma as a match you’ll see, and was witness to some of the worst defended goals in a top five European league this weekend (and yes, that includes Norwich’s seven conceded to City) despite what some considered to be an “inspired” second half performance.
There is not hot and cold with Fulham, only dark, horrible winter. If anyone should be shown the door at this stage in the season, it’s Martin Jol.
4. Roma were going to just keep winning forever and eventually just be handed the Scudetto in March or something
It seemed after Kevin Strootman’s goal in the 28th minute—an advantageous effort a few passes after their nine hundredth corner, basically—that it was all going to happen again. Roma enjoyed the lion’s share of chances away against Torino up to that point and a second surely was only a matter of waiting for their record 11th win in a row.
Then Torino began testing the incredible Morgan De Sanctis who parried several attempts as the game progressed. In the 63rd minute, it happened in the most cruel way imaginable. A long ball (ugly!) latched onto by Meggiorini who seemed at the time to foul his Roma’s Mehdi Benatia (dirty!), was crossed short to Cerci who scored a tap in (easy!). Despite a penalty shout and a near-miss corner header, Roma finished 1-1. The streak is over at 10 games.
Now the difficult part begins. Despite their incredible start, Roma are only three points ahead of Juventus and Napoli, although they will enjoy a pair of fairly tame home fixtures against Sassuolo and Cagliari to help maintain their slender lead. But it’s a reminder that the “streak” is still a nice bauble as far as the title itself is concerned.
5. The children are our future
Check the kid on the right, very closely. No respect for the refs these days.
Tactical Notes
It seems pretty daft to use a 7-0 drubbing which in large part involved an error-prone goal keeper not named Hart (hello John Ruddy!), but Manchester City’s overwhelming defeat of Norwich provides a mini-case study over the crucial importance of the first goal. Norwich obviously didn’t want themselves in a position of having to chase the game away at the Etihad, but the flukey OG opener in the 16th minute forced Norwich to press up the pitch for an equalizer, which allowed the floodgates to open when David Silva doubled their tally four minutes later when Norwich got caught out high up the pitch.
At that point the rest of the five goals were academic, although that negative goal differential could be crucial at the relegation party come April/May. The advice here isn’t necessarily NOT to concede the opening goal (because, duh), but rather to come up with a better game plan to adjust for the effects of the goal, which goes beyond just bombing up the pitch in the hopes of getting right back into it.
Goal of the Weekend
GOLAZO! For LA Galaxy against Real Salt Lake, the game-winner and only goal of the match, giving LA a series lead in the Western Conference semis:
Interesting Read of the Day
Juergen Klopp speaks to the Guardian. Man it’s always gold with this guy…at the risk of quote dumping, it’s hard to just take snippets:
“For me, he is Sir Arsène Wenger, he is really something, I love him,” Klopp adds, before miming a polite handshake. “But I’m this guy, with high fives. I always want it loud. I want to have this … ” Klopp makes the sound of an exploding bomb. (An article with him demands stage direction).
“If Barcelona’s team of the last four years were the first one that I saw play when I was four years of age … with their serenity, winning 5-0, 6-0 … I would have played tennis. Sorry, that is not enough for me. What I love is that there are some things you can do in football to allow each team to win most of the matches.
“It is not serenity football, it is fighting football – that is what I like. What we call in German – English [football] … rainy day, heavy pitch, everybody is dirty in the face and they go home and can’t play football for the next four weeks. This is Borussia.
