Deontay Wilder vs. Luis Ortiz: Betting preview and picks
WBC heavyweight champion Deontay Wilder (41-0-1, 40 KOs) will put his title on the line Saturday night against Luis Ortiz (31-1-2, 26 KOs). The two fighters met back in March 2018, with Wilder winning by a 10th-round TKO. Does the underdog Ortiz have a shot at the upset this time around? Here are the odds, betting info, and picks for Saturday's fight.
Odds
As expected, the unbeaten heavyweight champion is a big -700 favorite in this matchup, with the underdog Ortiz at +400. Wilder has won 40 of his 42 fights by stoppage, so bettors must lay -290 for him to win by KO/TKO. Ortiz did last 10 rounds in the first fight but oddsmakers don't see him going the distance this time around - Wilder winning by decision is +550. If you like Ortiz, the odds are in your favor. Ortiz winning by KO/TKO is +550 and the odds for the challenger to take the fight via decision are a whopping +1600.
Matchup
Since stopping Ortiz last year, Wilder has gone 1-0-1. His much-anticipated fight with Tyson Fury ended in a draw, and then Wilder demolished Dominic Breazeale in 2:17. Ortiz has won three straight fights since getting stopped by Wilder, with victories over Razvan Cojanu (TKO), Travis Kauffman (TKO), and Christian Hammer (UD).
Wilder and Fury are on a collision course to fight again next year. The only thing that can derail the much-hyped rematch is an Ortiz upset Saturday night. In the first fight, Ortiz looked good early until Wilder finally caught him in Round 5 and recorded the first knockdown of the bout. While it appeared Wilder had taken control, Ortiz rebounded in the seventh round. Wilder took big shots on the ropes and Ortiz was close to finishing the fight, but Wilder was saved by the bell. Ortiz was so dominant in that round that all three judges scored it 10-8, despite Wilder not going to the canvas.
However, Wilder recovered from the damage he took in the seventh and dropped Ortiz twice in the 10th before the fight was stopped. At the time of the stoppage, all three judges had the fight 85-84 in Wilder's favor. Ortiz tired in the later rounds but he's the only fighter outside of Fury to come close to giving Wilder the first loss of his career. It'll be interesting to see if Wilder starts off slow Saturday or goes right after Ortiz now that he's seen the challenger's somewhat unorthodox style.
Ortiz will come in with confidence knowing he almost stopped Wilder in the first fight. His counterpunching and technical boxing skills gave the champion trouble, as Wilder initially kept his distance and used his jab. However, while Ortiz is a smart fighter and can be hard to figure out at times, expect Wilder to be more aggressive in the rematch to try and get him out early.
Picks
As he showed in the first bout, Ortiz is a dangerous opponent. His movement in the ring may be the best in the heavyweight division outside of Fury. Still, Wilder is the younger, more talented fighter, and he has devastating power. The fact the two have already faced each other is also an advantage for the champion. Wilder at -700 is a bit steep, so take the champ at -290 to win by KO/TKO. I also like Wilder to win in Rounds 4-6 at +200. I don't see this fight lasting as long as the first bout. And since it's boxing and the judges are so unpredictable, the fight ending in a draw at +3300 is worth a couple of bucks as well.