MLB Betting Preview: Picks, Predictions, Recommended Wagers
With the start of the MLB season approaching, the staff at theScore put on their prognosticator hats to offer up futures selections on some of the more notable offerings on the board.
AL East odds
Team | BetOnline | Pinnacle | Sportsbook.ag |
---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox | +190 | +217 | +180 |
Toronto Blue Jays | +225 | +254 | +260 |
Baltimore Orioles | +360 | +381 | +450 |
New York Yankees | +450 | +478 | +500 |
Tampa Bay Rays | +650 | +718 | +700 |
Gino Bottero: The Boston Red Sox drew all the headlines for their offseason acquisitions, but the Toronto Blue Jays did a pretty solid job of supplementing an already strong core themselves. The Blue Jays aren't getting the credit they deserve for a pretty strong edge on the mound. If the trio of Marcus Stroman, Drew Hutchison and Aaron Sanchez can solidify the rotation, Toronto can run away with the East. Blue Jays +260 (Sportsbook.ag)
Dan Toman: The Red Sox don't pay well enough for me to invest in their starting rotation, and it's hard to get behind the Blue Jays as the next-best favorite with their razor-thin depth and underwhelming bullpen. Predicting the AL East has been an exercise in futility in recent years, and there's no reason to believe that will change in 2015. Give me the Baltimore Orioles at double the payout of Boston to surprise everyone and successfully defend their AL East title. Orioles +450 (Sportsbook.ag)
Greg Warren: This division is by far the toughest to call, but I like the Orioles to repeat as AL East champs. Yes, they lost Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz to free agency, but a healthy Manny Machado and Matt Wieters, combined with a bounce-back season from slugger Chris Davis, should be more than enough to compensate. Baltimore's starting rotation, which lacks true star power, is the most underrated in the league and will likely be undervalued by the average bettor. Orioles +450 (Sportsbook.ag)
AL Central odds
Team | BetOnline | Pinnacle | Sportsbook.ag |
---|---|---|---|
Cleveland Indians | +170 | +240 | +232 |
Detroit Tigers | +175 | +225 | +227 |
Chicago White Sox | +300 | +225 | +253 |
Kansas City Royals | +600 | +450 | +453 |
Minnesota Twins | +2200 | +1800 | +3020 |
Bottero: The Cleveland Indians' starting rotation has the potential to be the best in baseball. The batting order has enough juice to be solid as well, if it can handle left-handed pitching. In what is shaping up to be a down year for the Detroit Tigers, big things could be in store for Terry Francona's squad. Indians +240 (Pinnacle)
Toman: Despite their star power and pedigree of success, the Tigers don't feel like a favorite. Unfortunately, they don't really pay like an underdog, either. The Minnesota Twins should finish last and the Kansas City Royals are doubtful to win another AL pennant, but all bets are off after that. My monopoly money's on Cleveland to unseat Detroit, but I'd be tempted to put the real dough on the White Sox and the division's best rotation if I'm getting 3-to-1 odds. White Sox +300 (BetOnline)
Warren: The Tigers have won this division four consecutive times, but there will be a changing of the guard this season. The Indians very quietly amassed 85 wins a year ago behind breakout years from Michael Brantley and Corey Kluber, and added even more pop by acquiring Brandon Moss this winter. I have a feeling Detroit will really suffer from the loss of Max Scherzer, and Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera already have injury concerns entering the campaign. Indians +240 (Pinnacle)
AL West odds
Team | BetOnline | Pinnacle | Sportsbook.ag |
---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles Angels | +155 | +175 | +160 |
Seattle Mariners | +155 | +175 | +170 |
Oakland Athletics | +400 | +400 | +500 |
Texas Rangers | +700 | +650 | +600 |
Houston Astros | +2000 | +2300 | +2500 |
Bottero: The Los Angeles Angels won the division comfortably a year ago and didn't get any worse. The offense will be just fine, and the pitching staff isn't the albatross many make it out to be. Garrett Richards is ahead of schedule in his recovery, Jered Weaver continues to be effective even as his velocity drops and Huston Street will solidify the back end of the bullpen. Angels +175 (Pinnacle)
Toman: The Seattle Mariners weren't eliminated from the playoffs until the final day of the season last year, and all they've done since is acquire MLB's home run champ and shore up their offensive depth. Whereas the Angels are missing young lefty Tyler Skaggs and waiting on Richards, Seattle can expect even more stability in the league's top rotation with the emergence of Taijuan Walker. If you're in search of a value play, look no further than the Texas Rangers, who boast a solid one-through-three rotation and are returning a pair of All-Star bats in Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo. Mariners +175 (Pinnacle)
Warren: This is another tough division to call, but I'll side with the formidable pitching staff of the Mariners here. Seattle also added 40-homer man Nelson Cruz to the mix to bolster the offense. He may have a tough time replicating his numbers from a year ago at the cavern known as Safeco Field, but his bat in the middle of the order should be enough to put the M's over the top. Mariners +175 (Pinnacle)
NL East odds
Team | BetOnline | Pinnacle | Sportsbook.ag |
---|---|---|---|
Washington Nationals | -400 | -396 | -375 |
New York Mets | +500 | +693 | +700 |
Miami Marlins | +600 | +646 | +600 |
Atlanta Braves | +3500 | +2912 | +3500 |
Philadelphia Phillies | +8000 | +9517 | +8500 |
Bottero: The Washington Nationals are the easy pick here, but there's more value to be found in the New York Mets. With Matt Harvey back in the fold, the Mets have as deep a rotation as any team in baseball. If Lucas Duda can build on his breakout year and Michael Cuddyer proves to be an upgrade over Bobby Abreu, New York will be in the mix for the division title come September. Mets +700 (Sportsbook.ag)
Toman: The Mets offer nice value as a potential wild card team, but the Nationals are too stacked to not finish with the most wins over a 162-game season. The more compelling prop is whether Washington and its star-studded roster can win 100 games. Nationals -375 (Sportsbook.ag)
Warren: There's absolutely no value in betting the Nationals to prevail in the National League East, but there really isn't another option. Washington's pitching staff is deep and talented, and can sustain a winning record even if injuries rip through the rotation. If I was forced to take a long shot, however, I'd take the Mets. Nationals -375 (Sportsbook.ag)
NL Central odds
Team | BetOnline | Pinnacle | Sportsbook.ag |
---|---|---|---|
St. Louis Cardinals | +115 | +130 | +140 |
Pittsburgh Pirates | +260 | +255 | +220 |
Chicago Cubs | +300 | +360 | +300 |
Milwaukee Brewers | +1000 | +1000 | +1800 |
Cincinnati Reds | +1200 | +1150 | +1800 |
Bottero: The Milwaukee Brewers came on like gangbusters in the first half of last season. While the wheels came off in the second half, there's still a lot to like about the team. Giving away pitching in the offseason may not have been the right decision, but the lineup looks as potent as ever. Brewers +1800 (Sportsbook.ag)
Toman: There are too many question marks with the St. Louis Cardinals' pitching staff for the team to pay such poor odds. I'm not as optimistic for the Pittsburgh Pirates as others might be, either, even in a division as muddied as the Central. I'll take the high upside play - and the higher payout - by putting my money on the Chicago Cubs. There's good value there for a talented young team that added veterans Jon Lester, Dexter Fowler and Miguel Montero over the offseason. Cubs +360 (Pinnacle)
Warren: The Cardinals have won the Central in back-to-back seasons and are once again the favorites to capture the division title, but I'll take a chance on the Pirates. Pittsburgh's roster remains virtually intact with the exception of losing Russell Martin to the Blue Jays, but the Bucs added some nice depth pieces to compensate in Jung-ho Kang, Sean Rodriguez and Corey Hart. Pirates +260 (BetOnline)
NL West odds
Team | BetOnline | Pinnacle | Sportsbook.ag |
---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles Dodgers | -250 | -236 | -220 |
San Diego Padres | +375 | +425 | +400 |
San Francisco Giants | +450 | +501 | +450 |
Arizona Diamondbacks | +4500 | +3800 | +5000 |
Colorado Rockies | +5000 | +4538 | +5000 |
Bottero: It's not an even-numbered year, and the team's offense took a hit in the offseason, but Bruce Bochy still has enough pieces to work with that he can keep the San Francisco Giants winning on a regular basis. The pitching staff would be in much better shape if they had a time machine and could go back in time five years, but those guys are competitive and will give the team a chance to win night in and night out. Giants +501 (Pinnacle)
Toman: Sure, the Padres improved considerably this winter, but not nearly enough to claim roster supremacy over the well-balanced Los Angeles Dodgers. The defending West champs stretched their rotation even deeper by signing Brandon McCarthy, and their lineup figures to be more consistent with significant upgrades behind the plate and at second base. Dodgers -220 (Sportsbook.ag)
Warren: The average bettor may be tempted to take the Padres here, but make no mistake, the Dodgers are still the cream of the crop in this division. L.A.'s Opening Day roster should feature four new faces - Yasmani Grandal, Jimmy Rollins, Howie Kendrick and Joc Pederson - so the team's success depends on how the new faces integrate with the rest of the already stacked roster. Pitching depth is the strength of this club, which should safeguard against injuries. Dodgers -220 (Sportsbook.ag)
World Series odds
Team | BetOnline | Pinnacle | Sportsbook.ag |
---|---|---|---|
Washington Nationals | +500 | +573 | +550 |
Los Angeles Dodgers | +700 | +791 | +800 |
Boston Red Sox | +800 | +1682 | +1200 |
St. Louis Cardinals | +1000 | +1246 | +1300 |
Los Angeles Angels | +1200 | +1263 | +1200 |
Seattle Mariners | +1200 | +1423 | +1500 |
Chicago Cubs | +1600 | +2736 | +1400 |
Detroit Tigers | +1600 | +1622 | +2200 |
Toronto Blue Jays | +1800 | +2333 | +2800 |
Cleveland Indians | +1800 | +2295 | +2500 |
San Diego Padres | +1800 | +2054 | +2000 |
San Francisco Giants | +2000 | +2433 | +1600 |
Chicago White Sox | +2200 | +2293 | +1800 |
New York Mets | +2500 | +3431 | +2800 |
Baltimore Orioles | +2500 | +2833 | +3000 |
Pittsburgh Pirates | +2500 | +2972 | +2800 |
Oakland Athletics | +2800 | +2937 | +2800 |
Kansas City Royals | +2800 | +2534 | +3500 |
New York Yankees | +2800 | +3748 | +3000 |
Milwaukee Brewers | +4000 | +5775 | +7000 |
Miami Marlins | +4000 | +4560 | +3500 |
Texas Rangers | +5000 | +5050 | +4000 |
Atlanta Braves | +6600 | +3851 | +10000 |
Tampa Bay Rays | +6600 | +5674 | +4500 |
Cincinnati Reds | +6600 | +5471 | +7000 |
Houston Astros | +9000 | +9116 | +6000 |
Minnesota Twins | +10000 | +14403 | +12000 |
Arizona Diamondbacks | +15000 | +14181 | +12500 |
Colorado Rockies | +15000 | +15721 | +12500 |
Philadelphia Phillies | +30000 | +14688 | +27500 |
Bottero: The Brewers showed last season that they can go toe-to-toe with the best in the game and come out on top. The pitching staff is a concern, but general manager Doug Melvin has shown a willingness to go out and acquire a hired gun to shore up the rotation. Milwaukee offers more value than any similar team with a similar talent profile. Brewers +7000 (Sportsbook.ag)
Toman: There's some nice value to be found in the middle here, with the Blue Jays, Indians, San Diego Padres, Pirates and Orioles all offering favorable payouts as playoff-caliber teams. But if I'm balancing good value and actual talent, the club that stands out most is Seattle. They've got the ace, and a pair of MVP-type players in Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager, to make a legitimate run this year. The fact I consider the Mariners a more complete team than three clubs favored above them makes this a pretty easy pick. Mariners +1500 (Sportsbook.ag)
Warren: I don't think the Red Sox are a World Series contender at this exact moment, but now may be the time to grab them at 16-1 before the trigger is pulled on a blockbuster trade. The signing of Cuban prospect Yoan Moncada deepened an already loaded minor-league system, so general manager Ben Cherington now has even more pieces to move in order to upgrade for a title run. If Boston goes out and acquires a top-end starter, like Cole Hamels, its odds could move to 10-to-1 or even 8-to-1. Red Sox +1682 (Pinnacle)
Win Total odds
Team | BetOnline | Pinnacle | Sportsbook.ag |
---|---|---|---|
Arizona Diamondbacks | 72.5 ov -110 | 72.5 un -115 | 71.5 ov -115 |
Atlanta Braves | 73.5 ov -115 | 73.5 ov -121 | 74.5 ov -115 |
Baltimore Orioles | 82.5 ov -120 | 82.5 un -110 | 82.5 ov -115 |
Boston Red Sox | 86 ov -110 | 85.5 ov -115 | 86 ov -115 |
Chicago Cubs | 82.5 ov -115 | 82.5 un -113 | 83 ov -130 |
Chicago White Sox | 82 ov -120 | 81.5 ov -131 | 83 ov -115 |
Cincinnati Reds | 78 ov -120 | 78.5 un -149 | 77.5 ov -115 |
Cleveland Indians | 84.5 ov -110 | 82.5 ov -157 | 84.5 ov -115 |
Colorado Rockies | 72 ov -110 | 71.5 ov -140 | 72.5 ov -115 |
Detroit Tigers | 84.5 un -125 | 84.5 un -131 | 84.5 ov -115 |
Houston Astros | 75.5 ov -125 | 75.5 ov -115 | 76 ov -115 |
Kansas City Royals | 80.5 un -115 | 80.5 un -120 | 80 ov -115 |
Los Angeles Angels | 87.5 ov -110 | 88.5 un -150 | 87.5 ov -115 |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 92.5 un -115 | 92.5 un -118 | 92.5 ov -115 |
Miami Marlins | 81.5 ov -130 | 81.5 ov -135 | 83 ov -115 |
Milwaukee Brewers | 78.5 ov -125 | 79.5 un -150 | 78.5 ov -115 |
Minnesota Twins | 71.5 ov -125 | 70.5 ov -142 | 73.5 ov -115 |
New York Mets | 81.5 ov -145 | 81.5 ov -150 | 83 ov -115 |
New York Yankees | 81.5 ov -130 | 81.5 un -110 | 82.5 ov -115 |
Oakland Athletics | 82.5 ov -110 | 81.5 ov -118 | 81.5 ov -115 |
Philadelphia Phillies | 68.5 ov -115 | 68.5 ov -108 | 68.5 ov -115 |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 83.5 ov -135 | 83.5 ov -150 | 85.5 ov -115 |
San Diego Padres | 83.5 ov -110 | 84.5 un -125 | 84 ov -115 |
San Francisco Giants | 83.5 un -115 | 84.5 un -158 | 83.5 ov -115 |
Seattle Mariners | 87.5 ov -110 | 83.5 ov -137 | 86.5 ov -130 |
St. Louis Cardinals | 87.5 ov -125 | 87.5 ov -115 | 88.5 ov -115 |
Tampa Bay Rays | 79.5 un -150 | 79.5 ov -111 | 79 ov -125 |
Texas Rangers | 77.5 ov -135 | 78.5 ov -110 | 79.5 ov -115 |
Toronto Blue Jays | 83.5 ov -110 | 82.5 ov -140 | 83.5 ov -115 |
Washington Nationals | 93.5 ov -125 | 93.5 ov -115 | 94 ov -115 |
Bottero: Backing the under on the highest win totals on the board and the over on the lowest win totals on the board is a profitable endeavor most years. The Twins won 70 games a year ago and found some guys to solidify their lineup along the way. The top two names in the starting rotation are solid. Twins 71.5 over -125 (BetOnline)
Toman: The Angels didn't do enough this offseason to maintain their grip at the top of the West, and with the emergence of several East and Central teams, I'm not convinced Mike Trout's crew is playoff-bound, either. Even with the best player in the league, it's reasonable to suggest their offense overachieved last year. They'll be hard-pressed to squeeze any production out of Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols isn't getting any younger and the loss of Howie Kendrick should prove significant. Not only am I skeptical of them winning 90 games, I'm not so sure they win enough for the wild card. Angels 87.5 under -105 (Sportsbook.ag)
Warren: This team was awful a year ago (66 wins) and general manager Jeff Bridich did absolutely nothing to improve the club over the winter. The pitching staff is horrendous and I have a feeling Troy Tulowitzki and/or Carlos Gonzalez will be traded at some point during the season, sending this team into a nosedive. Rockies 71.5 under +124 (Pinnacle)
Home Run King odds
Player | BetOnline | Sportsbook.ag |
---|---|---|
Giancarlo Stanton | +650 | +650 |
Jose Abreu | +900 | +850 |
Edwin Encarnacion | +1000 | +1200 |
Chris Carter | +1000 | +1800 |
Mike Trout | +1000 | +1500 |
Jose Bautista | +1200 | +1200 |
Miguel Cabrera | +1400 | +1500 |
Anthony Rizzo | +1600 | +2000 |
Chris Davis | +1600 | +1500 |
Paul Goldschmidt | +2000 | +2000 |
Josh Donaldson | +2000 | +4000 |
Evan Gattis | +2500 | +8000 |
George Springer | +2500 | +3000 |
Adam Jones | +3300 | +5000 |
Mark Trumbo | +3300 | +2500 |
Nelson Cruz | +4000 | +4500 |
Bryce Harper | +4000 | +4000 |
Troy Tulowitzki | +5000 | +3000 |
David Ortiz | +5000 | +6000 |
Jay Bruce | +5000 | +5000 |
Carlos Gonzalez | +6600 | +5000 |
Ryan Braun | +6600 | +4000 |
Albert Pujols | +6600 | +6000 |
Prince Fielder | +6600 | +2500 |
Yasiel Puig | +7500 | +10000 |
Bottero: In the past three seasons, Edwin Encarnacion has finished fourth, third and seventh in home runs. No other player ranked in the top seven each year in that time. Last season's performance was particularly impressive as he knocked only two balls out in April and missed 34 games due to various injuries. With more lineup protection this year in the form of Josh Donaldson, this could be the year Edwin finally breaks through. Edwin Encarnacion +1200 (Sportsbook.ag)
Toman: Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Abreu might be the safe picks to lead the league in homers, but Paul Goldschmidt is the value play. The Diamondbacks first baseman matched Abreu's 2014 output two seasons ago with 36 homers as a 25-year-old, but had his season cut short at 109 games last August after breaking his hand. Goldschmidt's odds are appropriately discounted as a result of the injury, but so far he's reported no issues with his wrist or hand. He might not possess the prolific power of Abreu, Stanton or even Encarnacion, but at +2000 I'm willing to find out if he does. Paul Goldschmidt +2000 (widely available)
Warren: George Springer belted 20 home runs in only 78 games during his inaugural campaign, and 16 of those came in the months of May and June. And the Astros outfielder will benefit even more this time around due to added protection in the lineup from new addition Evan Gattis. Minute Maid Park is a haven for right-handed power hitters due to the short distance (315 feet) to the overhanging left-field "Crawford Boxes." Springer is certainly a long shot at 30-1, but well worth the risk. George Springer +3000 (Sportsbook.ag)
Odds courtesy BetOnline, Pinnacle, Sportsbook.ag.