NFL contender tiers: Who actually has a chance to win it all?

Every team enters a new season with high hopes, but there are only so many that realistically have a chance of putting together a deep playoff run. From the top dogs down to the bottom feeders, let's separate the true contenders from the rest of the pack.

Front-runners

This tier probably doesn't require much explaining. Nobody is going to be surprised if the 2025 season produces an immediate Super Bowl rematch. The Eagles and Chiefs were similarly outstanding in making their way to football's biggest stage last season, and the argument can be made that both will be even better in the year ahead.

Among those who could reasonably pose a threat to the top two, the Ravens and Bills are clearly in a class of their own. Baltimore's improved defensive backfield may well make this the only roster in football that rivals the collection of talent in Philly. Lamar Jackson, a two-time NFL MVP, is somehow still getting better with every passing year. The same can be said about Josh Allen, who's coming off his first career MVP award. And with some exciting, young pieces added to the defense, this could be the year Buffalo finally gets over the hump.

In the mix

This group has its share of questions marks. For one reason or another, these teams should all be considered a clear step below those in the top tier. But each still has what it takes to go on a Super Bowl run if everything breaks right.

For the Lions, that means avoiding any sort of schematic setbacks after losing rising stars at both offensive and defensive coordinator. The talent is there otherwise. The Packers' offense figures to take another step forward, but can the defense repeat last year's surprise effort without adding a game-changer up front or at corner?

J.J. McCarthy has been afforded the perfect opportunity to hit the ground running at the professional level, as the Vikings made significant improvements to a roster that won 14 games last year. This team may not miss a beat if the de facto rookie quarterback can avoid any major growing pains out of the gate. The Rams are one of the best-coached teams in football, and the Davante Adams addition has the potential to put this roster over the top. But Matthew Stafford's lingering back injury is a real concern. His availability likely makes or breaks their season.

And then there's the Texans. Houston might be a surprising member of the second tier, considering the disappointment of last season, but it's a new year. Incoming offensive coordinator Nick Caley should be a major upgrade over Bobby Slowik, potentially putting C.J. Stroud back on the superstar path he established with an incredible rookie season. Anything in the range of a top-10 offense would be a dangerous complement to the elite unit DeMeco Ryans has built on the other side of the ball.

Outside chance

Maybe the Commanders deserve to be a tier above. Some might argue for even more after last year's unexpected run to the NFC title game. But are we sure this defense has done enough to improve? The NFL's oldest roster taking on a much more difficult schedule opens the door for Washington to disappoint anyone still hung up on last year's magical run.

Sean Payton seems to be building something special in Denver. The defense alone should have this team comfortably in the playoffs. The question is whether Bo Nix can build on a promising first year. The 49ers will always score points with Kyle Shanahan running the offense, and Robert Saleh's return should raise the floor on defense, but an offseason cap reset has this team facing too many questions.

While the Bucs may have an offense capable of hanging with the best, the pass defense has been one of the NFL's worst for two years running. It remains to be seen whether adding Haason Reddick and a pair of rookie corners will be enough to turn things around right away.

Capped playoff potential

Last season's playoff appearance was a great start to the Jim Harbaugh era in Los Angeles. The Chargers are probably still another year away from having the defensive talent to maximize Jesse Minter's scheme. The Bears should quickly start heading in the right direction under Ben Johnson before potentially emerging as a legitimate contender in 2026.

The Steelers have been in the playoffs each of the last two years despite bad quarterback play. Aaron Rodgers should make the path back a little less bumpy, but it's tough to imagine the 41-year-old taking Pittsburgh much further. The Bengals could be a Super Bowl contender if they had even a league-average defense to go with their star-studded offense. Unfortunately, that's simply not the case.

Don't sleep on the Seahawks as a playoff contender this season. Mike Macdonald has quickly constructed one of the best defenses in football. If preseason reps are any indication, the arrival of new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak might give Seattle a suitable complement in the form of a consistent run game.

Bubble teams

The Cowboys are better than the constant drama might suggest. A playoff appearance is a real possibility, even if the defense does limit the potential for anything more. The Dolphins are in a similar situation, though it feels like this thing could fall apart in a hurry. The floor might be quite a bit lower than people think.

Atlanta is still looking for its first winning season since 2017. Michael Penix Jr. living up to his draft status in his first full year as a starter would go a long way toward making that a reality. The Cardinals are on the rise after a quietly encouraging 2024 season on both sides of the ball, but they'll have to take another big step forward in the tough NFC West.

The Raiders might have a playoff-caliber offense with Geno Smith and Ashton Jeanty added to the mix. Pete Carroll will need to work some magic if the defense is going to hold up its end of the bargain. The Patriots are probably still a year away, but this team will at least be a tough out. A productive first offseason under Mike Vrabel has solidified the foundation and put Drake Maye in position for a major sophomore breakout.

Playing for progress

The Jaguars and Panthers are trending up. Give these young teams another year to build and we could be talking about a pair of emerging playoff contenders. The Colts and Jets would be knocking on that door this year if they didn't have such uninspiring quarterback situations. As things stand in that regard, it's tough to have any real expectations.

There's a case to be made that this Giants team is underrated. A lethal pass-rush could make the defense a real force, and Russell Wilson will at least allow for more of a vertical passing game than was ever possible with Daniel Jones. The NFL's hardest schedule won't be doing them any favors though.

Cam Ward could be the franchise quarterback the Titans have been seeking. This roster still has a long way to go, so wins may be tough to come by in the short term. But that's not the important part this year. Ward starting strong would set Tennessee up to take a big jump in 2026.

Basement dwellers

It's going to be a long year for these two teams. As nice as it may be for Saints fans to be done with the Dennis Allen era, they might be in for a long wait before any sort of promising results are on the table. The Browns are in a similar position, still recovering from the all-time blunder that was the Deshaun Watson trade.

The silver lining is that next year's quarterback class should have much more to offer than the group that was available this past spring. Both the Saints and the Browns could be looking at brighter futures this time next year.

Dan Wilkins is theScore's senior NFL writer.