CFB Week 12 big games: Coin-flip contests await College Football Playoff hopefuls

The underdogs weren't all that dangerous in Week 11. Even the one that covered - Utah - needed a series of events to do so, including a blocked chip-shot field goal and this:

You can't make a point spread high enough for Penn State to cover if James Franklin knows his athletes are better than his opponent's. When it's time to play Ohio State and Michigan, throw out the power rankings because it's not happening. The Wolverines ran the ball 30 straight times (not an exaggeration) to knock the Nittany Lions out of relevance yet again.

No. 9 Louisville @ Miami (+1, 46.5)

Louisville is the ninth and final team that can, with help, make the College Football Playoff. The Cardinals start a run of Miami, Kentucky, and Florida State in the ACC title game that, if they sweep, would give them at least an argument.

The point spread reflects two comparable teams from a metric standpoint - nearly equal offensive efficiency - but Louisville boasts better defense, and I question how much Miami has left to give.

After Mario Cristobal cost the team its undefeated record, Miami's lost three more times, with home wins over Clemson and Virginia. Last week might have been its final push in a rivalry game with Florida State, so all that's left is waiting to see what mid-tier bowl awaits the 'Canes.

At a time of year when caring matters, Louisville keeps a magical season in play for another week.

Pick: Louisville (-1)

SMU @ Memphis (+8.5, 66.5)

The top of the American Athletic Conference is lit. That's what the kids that are into G5 football are saying.

In an accidental stroke of scheduling genius, SMU-Memphis is the first of two virtual conference semi-finals - Tulane-UTSA being the other next week.

Of the 14 teams in the American, here are the preseason ratings of SMU's six opponents: 14, eight, seven, 11, 12, and 10. And when the Mustangs played Temple (7), the Owls were missing their starting quarterback.

SMU's rating increase is built on weak competition since losing to Oklahoma and TCU. Meanwhile, Memphis's two blemishes are close losses to ranked Missouri and Tulane. As a result, keeping this game close at home should be the expectation.

Pick: Memphis (+8.5)

No. 16 Utah @ No. 19 Arizona (PK, 44.5)

Since Noah Fifita took over at quarterback, Arizona's offense is clicking at a level comparable to Drake Maye's North Carolina unit.

While Utah's defense is more heralded, with the No. 1 unit in EPA/Play, the Wildcats aren't far behind in defensive Early Down Success Rate (EDSR). Covering -10 on the road at Colorado against Shedeur Sanders wasn't something we should have been interested in, but back at home this weekend, needing only to win, that's where we want to be backing Arizona.

Pick: Arizona (PK)

No. 1 Georgia @ No. 21 Tennessee (+10.5, 59.5)

That train you hear coming down the track? It's the mean machine in red and black of the Bulldogs.

Brock Bowers is back, and the offense is firing on all cylinders ahead of a meeting with Alabama in the SEC Championship, where Georgia has been installed as -4 favorites in lookahead lines. That suggests an ample boost to the Bulldogs' rating since it's a neutral-site game against the surging Crimson Tide.

Whether undefeated or not, a win in Atlanta should give the Bulldogs a place in the College Football Playoff. So, while the premise of this article is an investigation into the big games of the week, this trip to Knoxville is actually somewhat meaningless.

Tennessee completely no-showed on the road at Missouri last week, but we'll assume the two-time national champions will have their attention this week. The Vols' defense ranks better in EDSR and EPA/Play than Georgia, with the biggest discrepancy coming in run defense. The Bulldogs are 84th in EPA/Play against the run, which suggests Tennessee could go drive-for-drive with Georgia.

Pick: Tennessee (+10.5)

No. 5 Washington @ No. 10 Oregon State (-2.5, 63.5)

This is the game I've been dreading and why we put in place our Bo Nix/Oregon futures before last week.

If you have future positions in Washington, the only move is to hope the team wins the toughest game on its schedule, which has gone from a pick'em to Oregon State -2.5.

The Beavers are a problem, with two three-point road losses preventing a battle of undefeated teams. Oregon State easily handled Utah and UCLA at home and is still in the hunt for the Pac-12 championship. Reser Stadium should be rocking, and the Beavers' strength is their pass defense - a key in slowing Michael Penix. Meanwhile, D.J. Uiagalelei can move the ball against the Huskies' 108th-ranked run defense by EPA/Play.

Pick: Oregon State (-2.5)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.