CFB futures betting: Who's in the best position to be profitable?
Exactly one year ago, we looked at the two big futures markets in college football, the College Football Playoff champion and Heisman Trophy, and made two bets at significant odds.
Tennessee (+1800) got stunned by South Carolina when Hendon Hooker tore his ACL, torpedoing the Volunteers' season. But that lost ticket was forgotten when Caleb Williams (+750) took home the big award for player of the year.
College Football Playoff champion odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Michigan | +225 |
| Georgia | +260 |
| Florida State | +500 |
| Ohio State | +650 |
| Alabama | +900 |
| Oregon | +1000 |
| Washington | +1200 |
| Texas | +1400 |
| Ole Miss | +10000 |
| Penn State | +10000 |
*Other teams available at theScore Bet at 150-1 or longer
In mid-August, we pinpointed a pair of teams at valuable prices to make the College Football Playoff: Texas (+300) and Washington (+600). Those teams are currently +125 and +150, meaning we succeeded in identifying potential contenders, but just because you're in a good position with previously purchased tickets doesn't mean you should ignore value elsewhere. Texas has a clear path to the CFP, but Washington faces higher hurdles.
Oregon (+1000)
At this point, only Michigan, Georgia, Ohio State, and Alabama are rated higher than Oregon in the betting market. The Ohio State-Michigan matchup should extinguish one of those teams' chances for the CFP and the SEC title game should act as a play-in as well. That leaves Oregon as a close third team in the CFP should the Ducks run the table.
| WEEK | OPPONENT | PROJECTED LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | USC | -14.5 |
| 12 | @Arizona State | -16 |
| 13 | Oregon State | -14 |
| Pac-12 title game | *Washington | -2.5 |
*Projected opponent on neutral site in Las Vegas
The Ducks are favored by two touchdowns in their final three regular-season games, so barring a big upset, they'll have an opportunity to avenge their loss to Washington. That game was great for Huskies bettors, but the Ducks objectively outgained Washington in Seattle and subjectively looked like the tougher team. A Washington defense that we hoped would come around hasn't done so (60th in EPA/play).
The next issue is whether the Ducks can hang with the top teams in the CFP. As alluded to above, Oregon's been rated within a touchdown of Michigan and Georgia. Unlike past College Football Playoffs, the "surprise team" in the semifinals wouldn't be lined as a huge underdog.
Lastly, Dan Lanning - the former Georgia defensive coordinator - has the Ducks' defense sixth in EPA/play and among the top 10 in Standard Down Success Rate (SDSR). They wouldn't be overwhelmed by the top-rated teams, and their offense is arguably the best of the group, led by Bo Nix.
Heisman Trophy odds
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | +140 |
| Bo Nix | +200 |
| Jordan Travis | +750 |
| J.J. McCarthy | +850 |
| Carson Beck | +1500 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | +1800 |
*Other teams available at theScore Bet at 35-1 or longer
Dillon Gabriel and Drake Maye had their flirtations with candidacy, but the crown jewel of our preseason Heisman bets was Michael Penix Jr. (+1600), who's spent the most time as the favorite after that win over the Ducks. Again, that mission is accomplished, so what do we do now?
Looking at Washington's schedule indicates that it's worth making a plan to defend these good positions on Penix and the Huskies.
| WEEK | OPPONENT | PROJECTED LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Utah | -9.5 |
| 12 | @Oregon State | -3 |
| 13 | Washington State | -23 |
| Pac-12 title game | *Oregon | +2.5 |
*Projected opponent on neutral site in Las Vegas
Washington being an underdog in the Pac-12 title game is the headline, but even before that, the Huskies' schedule is much more challenging than the Ducks', and Nix isn't far behind Penix statistically.
| PLAYER | COMP% | YARDS | TOTAL TD:INT | RUSH TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penix | 69.4 | 3201 | 26:7 | 1 |
| Nix | 78.1 | 2723 | 25:2 | 5 |
Bo Nix (+200)
With USC's horrific defense and an offense good enough to force Oregon to play 60 minutes, now's the time to buy Nix.
Important: Backing Nix to win the Heisman primarily acts as a hedge to defend the previous positions on Penix and Washington. Here's how that would look.
| BET | ODDS | UNIT BET | NET UNITS TO WIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penix (Heisman) | +1600 | -1 | +14 |
| Maye (Heisman) | +1800 | -1 | |
| Gabriel (Heisman) | +4000 | -1 | |
| - | |||
| Washington (Make CFP) | +600 | -1 | +6 |
If Washington goes undefeated and wins the Pac-12, we net +20 units on our Huskies positions. However, the Huskies aren't currently favored to do so. With Penix and Nix taking up 75% of the implied win probability in the Heisman market, the quarterback of the winning team will bring home the award. Taking a handful of those projected units and putting them on Nix would set you up to profit regardless of who wins that game.
| BET | ODDS | UNITS | GROSS | NET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | +200 | 5 | +10 | +6 |
This plan would leave +15 units of profit if Washington comes through and +6 if it doesn't. Of course, you can go bigger on Nix, but there remains the remote possibility that Oregon wins out and someone from another conference emerges as the Heisman winner. The odds suggest there's only a 25% chance of that happening. Risking nine units to win six (or more) is a -150 bet (66.6% implied win probability) or an 8.3% edge with high upside - especially if Washington wins the Pac-12 in a close game and makes the CFP while Nix wins the Heisman.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.