CFB betting: Best long shots to steal a ticket to the CFP
It was some of our best work in 2022 college football betting, and it seemed like the most ridiculous. Even though it feels like it's all blue bloods all the time in the College Football Playoff, we somehow pinpointed TCU as a long-shot team that could tip-toe the landmines of the regular season and make it impossible for the CFP selection committee to keep the program out (even after a Big 12 Championship loss to Kansas State).
As we theorized before last season, Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio State saw their names called last year in the CFP semis. I'd expect three teams to come out of the SEC-Big Ten juggernaut again, but there are plenty of losses to go around in the Big 12, ACC, and Pac-12, meaning the fourth spot is up for grabs.
Odds to make the College Football Playoff
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Georgia | -250 |
| Ohio State | -110 |
| Michigan | +110 |
| Alabama | +140 |
| USC | +270 |
| Clemson | +300 |
| Florida State | +300 |
| Texas | +320 |
| Penn State | +320 |
| LSU | +340 |
| Notre Dame | +500 |
| Oregon | +550 |
| Washington | +600 |
| Oklahoma | +700 |
| Tennessee | +800 |
| Utah | +900 |
| Wisconsin | +1100 |
| Texas A&M | +1300 |
| North Carolina | +2000 |
| Iowa | +2500 |
| Oregon State | +2500 |
| Texas Tech | +3000 |
| UCLA | +3000 |
| Mississippi | +3000 |
Here's the checklist for making the College Football Playoff:
- Win 12 games
- Get on the radar early
- Beat a big-name school
- Have a quarterback voters believe in
Last year, TCU received attention by trouncing Oklahoma and upsetting Texas en route to a 12-0 start. Even its lone loss saw the nation go wild over Max Duggan (second in Heisman voting).
A year before that, Cincinnati went 13-0 to win the American Athletic Conference, taking out Notre Dame early in the season. Desmond Ridder also impressed enough to get drafted in the third round in the NFL.
Best bets
Texas (+300)
When it comes to the contenders, you lump some teams together because of the schedule. For example, Week 1's Florida State-LSU matchup will create a comparison between the SEC and ACC that'll affect Clemson, North Carolina, and anyone on LSU's schedule.
Out west, Texas would get the upper hand on that whole group if the program could win at Alabama in Week 2. The Longhorns can still win 12 games with a loss there, and either Quinn Ewers or Arch Manning will capture the nation's attention with a long winning streak. I much prefer taking a big program like Texas - which will get the benefit of the doubt from the committee - to make the playoff at +300 than to back the program to win the Big 12 at just even money.
Washington (+600)
Washington opens the year with sneaky brand name Boise State and a road game in the Big Ten. Sure, the Huskies will be favorites against both the Broncos and Michigan State, but wins there are just interesting enough to legitimize what could be a 5-0 start before Oregon comes to Seattle.
Washington walked into Autzen Stadium and knocked off the Ducks in Kalen DeBoer's first season - an under-the-radar 11-2 campaign - and while the University of Nike is backing Bo Nix, he's not the best quarterback in this matchup.
“He’s focused. He’s having fun. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a dark horse for the Heisman.” https://t.co/AnzQTxDVzo
— Ducks Wire (@Ducks_Wire) August 17, 2023
Michael Penix should have the billboard, having led the nation's best passing game (368.8 yards per game) and second-best overall offense in just his first year in teaming up with offensive guru DeBoer. There's no drop-off coming.
That means it's on the defense to hold up. Bralen Trice is pass-rushing's best-kept secret in the Pacific Northwest, and a secondary that was leaky last season has been bolstered by Oklahoma State transfer and shutdown corner Jabbar Muhammad. That'll come in handy when the Huskies go to USC. A win there would solidify Washington's candidacy for the elusive CFP spot.
Texas Tech (+3000)
Now we're talking long shots! Like its in-state brethren last year, Texas Tech isn't even listed to make the playoff in many places. However, its 250-1 title odds are long enough to play it that way and hedge out a healthy profit come the new year.
With apologies to Baylor-Utah, Arizona State-Oklahoma State, and Colorado-TCU, the game that binds the Pac-12 and the Big 12 this season is the Oregon-Texas Tech matchup in Dallas in Week 2. If the Red Raiders lose that contest, we'll rip a $20 ticket that could win $5000 and chalk it up to the game. However, if they win ...
Kansas State and TCU have to come to Lubbock, and the Red Raiders' first four conference road games are very manageable and don't feature any back-to-backs. Then comes a season finale at Texas. While that's a daunting task, we thought the same thing when undefeated TCU went to Austin as 7.5-point underdogs and won outright. Plus, we have a Texas ticket anyway.
As discussed in the Big 12 preview, Tyler Shough could be set up for a big season, and the Red Raiders' defense is way better than you think it is. Priced amongst Purdue, Pittsburgh, Arizona State, and others that don't have a path or the talent of Texas Tech, the Red Raiders are worth a couple of dollars to follow in the Frogs' footsteps.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.