Big 12 season betting preview: Will favorites disappoint again?

If you're teaching a young, burgeoning football fan to memorize the teams in the Big 12, maybe wait another year. With more turnover to come, you might even be surprised to hear that BYU, Houston, Cincinnati and Central Florida are already in the conference.

The 10-team league we'd grown accustomed to has blown right past the 12 in its name and now has 14 teams but still refuses to shift into divisions - at least until it's clear who's committed to the conference. The current format makes it easier for the top two teams to get into the title game, though that hasn't helped frequent favorites - and future departees - Texas and Oklahoma. Baylor, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Kansas State have all made surprising appearances in Dallas the last two seasons.

Big 12 championship odds

High expectations for Texas? You're kidding! When the Longhorns find out they can't play both Quinn Ewers and mega-hyped recruit Arch Manning at the same time, they're going to be rattled. An even-money price on the Longhorns implies that it's not just 50-50 that they make the Big 12 title game, but that they win it. Even with a loaded roster in a "no days off" conference, that price is far too rich. For comparison, they were +280 last season and they had the best player in the Big 12 in Bijan Robinson.

As for who could sneak into the championship, it will be hard to top last year's effort in picking from a group of challengers. It's easy to forget that Kansas State won the title last year, which may earn the Wildcats the third-shortest odds, but Chris Klieman has to replace top skill-position players Malik Knowles and Deuce Vaughn.

All the big names - Max Duggan, Quentin Johnston, Kendre Miller, Derius Davis - departed after TCU's national finalist season, so the Horned Frogs are longer shots to win the conference than they were before last year - particularly since so many of their wins came by the skin of their teeth.

Big 12 team ratings

Using regular-season win totals and how the strength of the conference affects their schedule, Matt Russell, theScore's lead betting analyst, has estimated how the betting market rates each team on a national level. Using a rating system allows you to project point spreads and track any change in how the market has reacted to recent games.

Odds via theScore Bet

While Kansas got attention for its big leap last year, Texas Tech only technically improved by one game. However, Joey McGuire's Red Raiders did it against a tougher schedule than usual, and they were competitive despite having to start three different quarterbacks. Unlike teams under a brighter spotlight, Texas Tech's win total and rating haven't risen way above their program's usual standard.

Supporting the idea that there's no easy game in this version of the Big 12, even the rating for the bottom team in the conference is that of an average team nationally.

Best bets

theScore betting writer Sam Oshtry looked at regular-season win totals earlier this summer. Here are his two best bets:

Let's look at some additional wagers worth considering for the Big 12 this season.

Texas Tech: Over 7.5 wins (+115)

Here's a hot take: The Red Raiders could be undefeated when they face Texas in the regular-season finale.

That includes their big nonconference showdown. While most eyes will be on Texas-Alabama in Week 2's prime-time slot, sixth-year quarterback Tyler Shough faces Oregon - where he spent his first three college seasons - in Dallas. There's no "Game of the Year" line available in the market, but Texas Tech should be getting over a touchdown against a defense that Shough could be able to exploit.

Zach Kittley is among the crop of young, sharp offensive coordinators, and the Red Raiders have no shortage of talent at the skill positions. If a planned shuffle among the offensive line can do a better job of keeping Shough upright, he can limit the turnovers that plagued Tech's offense last year, and the Big 12 schedule sets up nicely for an in-state showdown late in the season. By then, the Red Raiders should have already banked eight wins.

The market has sniffed out Texas Tech's value in the conference title odds, as it's down to 12-1. That number that might get longer once the season starts, especially if the Red Raiders stay under the radar with a loss to Oregon.

Oct. 7: Oklahoma (+6.5) vs. Texas

The lookahead line for the Red River Rivalry favors Texas by a couple of points more than market ratings would suggest. As tempting as it is to wait in hopes of a +7, I have this neutral-site line projected at -4.5. There's value in grabbing the Sooners at +6.5 (-105) now, as Oklahoma should be undefeated and Texas might not be. With a healthy Dillon Gabriel, the Sooners should be primed for a better showing than last year's debacle without him.

Oct. 21: TCU @ Kansas State (-4.5)

TCU's putting on a brave face after losing its core from an epic 2022 season, but this line is more likely to go up than drop closer to pick'em, as the Horned Frogs are expected to struggle to match their rating in the first six weeks of the season. Take the favorite now and expect K-State to be closer to a full touchdown favorite once the Wildcats kick off the Big 12 title-game rematch in the Little Apple.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.