DFS: Targeting High-Event NHL Teams
Ottawa Senators D Erik Karlsson is oft-criticized for his risky style of play that can lead to mistakes and goals against.
While often overblown to an extent, it's that style of play that makes him a favorite of daily fantasy hockey players. Not only are he and his teammates excellent targets, but so are a lot of their opponents.
Karlsson is what is known as a "high-event player". He generates a lot of shots for, but there can also be a lot of shots against while he's on the ice.
The Give-and-Take Relationship
The following chart shows the top 10 teams from the 2014-15 season in terms of average shots on goal per game. The associated numbers in bold also represent a top-10/bottom-10 rank in the respective category.
| Team | Shots For/Game | Goals/Game | Shots Against/Game | Goals Against/Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 33.9 | 2.79 | 30.2 | 2.30 |
| NYI | 33.8 | 3.07 | 28.3 | 2.80 |
| NAS | 31.9 | 2.83 | 28.3 | 2.54 |
| PIT | 31.6 | 2.70 | 29.3 | 2.56 |
| SJ | 31.6 | 2.78 | 29.7 | 2.83 |
| NYR | 31.5 | 3.07 | 29.5 | 2.34 |
| DAL | 31.2 | 3.18 | 29.9 | 3.17 |
| BOS | 31.0 | 2.60 | 29.9 | 2.57 |
| OTT | 31.0 | 2.90 | 32.1 | 2.62 |
| LAK | 30.9 | 2.68 | 27.0 | 2.50 |
The teams that allowed the most shots against per game in 2014-15:
| Team | Shots Against/Game | Goals Against/Game | Shots For/Game | Goals/Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 35.6 | 3.28 | 24.2 | 2.35 |
| TOR | 33.5 | 3.13 | 29.2 | 2.51 |
| COB | 33.4 | 3.02 | 28.9 | 2.77 |
| ARI | 33.2 | 3.26 | 29.2 | 2.01 |
| COL | 33.2 | 2.72 | 27.9 | 2.55 |
| OTT | 32.1 | 2.54 | 31.0 | 2.83 |
| NJ | 30.7 | 2.55 | 24.5 | 2.15 |
| PHI | 30.3 | 2.72 | 29.4 | 2.59 |
| CHI | 30.2 | 2.27 | 33.9 | 2.68 |
| MON | 30.1 | 2.24 | 28.5 | 2.61 |
The Islanders, Sharks, Stars, Senators and Blackhawks are the teams to focus on. All of these teams had a top-10 offense in 2014-15, accompanied by a bottom-10 defense in at least one category. These four teams can be referred to as high event teams, with an above-average total goal expectation in their games.
The goalies from these teams, as well as those of their opponents, should be avoided, but stacking the forwards and defensemen from these matchups is an excellent strategy. The increased pace of the game allows for additional production via several other secondary statistics such as shots on goal and penalty minutes.
The Extra Advantage
In addition to total shot counts, teams that both take and draw a lot penalties represent the potential for exploitation in daily fantasy hockey. Here are the teams that took the most penalties in 2014-15, and their corresponding penalty kill percentages:
There are plenty of interesting teams from this group. The Blue Jackets and Flyers were both in the bottom 10 penalty killing teams last season, but both were in the top 10 on the power play. The Blue Jackets, along with the Senators and Maple Leafs, ranked in the top 10 in both penalty minutes taken and penalty minutes drawn.
These were the best teams to either target players from or against, as they have or provide increased opportunities for scoring, especially when playing each other.
On a night-to-night basis, scoring in the NHL is highly volatile and unpredictable. While selecting players on hot streaks and picking against struggling goaltenders are the common strategies, digging deeper and selecting players based on a high-likelihood for opportunity will offer more long-term success.
This isn't only a good way to target the high-priced players, but it's the best way to find value. Selecting cheap players from a game with plenty of scoring opportunities is an excellent way to "luck into" the extra production needed to win a large-field GPP.