Best Week 4 total bets: Ravens to rebound, Saints to tumble
A 1-2 record on total bets in Week 3 brings us to 4-5 on the season. Let's turn it around and find some winners this week.
As we settle into the season, the great teams separate from the good who separate from the bad. That should give us a clearer picture of the offenses we can trust and those we can fade.
Falcons @ Jaguars under 43.5
The Jaguars' offense, for whatever reason, hasn't lived up to expectations this season. After a divisional-round playoff appearance last campaign, Jacksonville is 1-2 to start 2023 while averaging 19 points per game, which ranks 21st in the league.
Trevor Lawrence hasn't been phenomenal, but more blame lies with the pieces around him. The offensive line is barely holding up, and the Jaguars' weapons, which were supposed to improve with the addition of Calvin Ridley, have been subpar.
Ridley has three drops on the season, while Jacksonville has a combined eight - tied for the most in the NFL. The Jaguars might eventually turn it around, but they aren't capable of hitting a switch and becoming a prolific offense like the Chiefs are. This will take time, meaning there's no reason to expect Jacksonville to turn it around any time soon.
The Falcons offense isn't much better. They average even fewer points per game than Jacksonville. Two of Atlanta's three games have gone way below 43.5.
Saints team total under 21.5
Derek Carr is out, and Jameis Winston is in for the Saints this weekend. Saints fans and bettors are in for the roller-coaster ride that is the Winston experience. He appeared in three contests last season, throwing five interceptions. However, he averaged just under 300 passing yards per game.
When Carr went down last week and Winston came in for relief, the Saints offense looked stale. Winston has an entire week to prepare as the starter, but New Orleans' offense - with either Carr or Winston - has been pedestrian.
It's a revenge game for Winston as he faces his former team - the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay's defense is great, and coach Todd Bowles is one of the best defensive minds in the game.
The game total is 39.5, the lowest of the weekend. Instead of touching a side on that, it's smarter to fade Winston and the Saints by playing their under 21.5 points.
Ravens team total over 19.5
Last week's outcome isn't indicative of the Ravens', or their offense's, future. As long as Lamar Jackson is healthy, Baltimore's offense is in good shape. Part of the reason this number is low is due to the Browns' great defense - or so it's perceived to be.
The Browns are holding teams to the fewest points per game through three weeks. But that statistic can be misleading based on Cleveland's opponents. They limited the Bengals to three points in Week 1 with a hobbled Joe Burrow and surrendered just three points to a horrific Titans offense last week.
The Browns also allowed the Steelers to put up 26 points on them two weeks ago. Their defensive unit is certainly good, but it's overrated.
The Ravens will bounce back from last week's loss and won't have a problem scoring points against an overvalued Browns team. The Ravens are 3-point road underdogs. It might also be worth taking the points, but the Ravens team total is likely a safer bet.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formally known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.