Who ya got? Previewing Clippers vs. Mavericks

After a memorable six-gamer last year, the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks will tussle again in the first round. Will the outcome be different this time?

NBA feature writers Joseph Casciaro and Joe Wolfond are here to break it down.

Prediction

Wolfond: Clippers in 5

On the strength of Luka Doncic's explosive playoff debut, the Mavs gave the Clippers a proper scare in last year's first round, knotting the series at two games apiece before Kristaps Porzingis tore his meniscus and extinguished hopes of an upset. Dallas then took two of three off L.A. in this year's season series, including a 51-point drubbing in a game Kawhi Leonard missed. Doncic averaged 30.3 points and 11 assists across those three contests.

And yet, I still think this should be relatively light work for the Clippers. The Mavs still don't have great defensive answers for Leonard and Paul George. And while George bailed them out with a horrendous shooting display last year, that feels unlikely this time, especially given how effectively George is driving the ball, thereby making himself less jump-shot dependent.

Leonard, for his part, has cooked just about every defender the Mavs have tried on him, from Doncic to Dorian Finney-Smith to Maxi Kleber. Josh Richardson is a nice defensive addition on the wing, but he doesn't quite have the size or strength to match up with Leonard.

True, the Clippers haven't had much of an answer for Doncic, either. But he has far less help than L.A.'s stars do, especially with Porzingis dealing with soreness in his surgically repaired knee (an ailment that sidelined him for 10 of the Mavs' last 14 games). Dallas thrives by beating rotating defenses from the perimeter, but the Clippers are the rare team that has the horses to handle Doncic in single coverage and keep their other defenders home on shooters.

That said, L.A. has to avoid repeating its mistakes from last year's series, namely its needless switching. The Clippers would typically start out with one of Leonard or George guarding Doncic, but all Dallas had to do was bring a small screener into the action and Doncic would find himself dancing with Reggie Jackson or Landry Shamet instead.

Another bit of low-hanging fruit for L.A. is to play Ivica Zubac more, which seems likely to happen given that Serge Ibaka just returned from a back injury that cost him two months. Zubac has proven to be a very effective deterrent against ball-handlers in the pick-and-roll, walling off paths to the rim without abandoning the roll man. During last year's playoffs and this season, Doncic got to the rim and the free-throw line considerably less frequently, and committed far more turnovers, when Zubac was on the floor rather than Ibaka or Montrezl Harrell.

The Mavs can counter by having Porzingis pop to the 3-point line to draw Zubac out of the paint. It'll be interesting to see if the Clippers stash Zubac on a less threatening wing, like Finney-Smith, so he can rove more freely while throwing one of Leonard or George at Porzingis so they can switch Doncic-Porzingis actions.

There's lots of matchup intrigue here, but the Clippers just have way more advantages.

Casciaro: Clippers in 6

I don't really disagree with your analysis. The Mavs don't have the defensive personnel to deal with Leonard or George, the Clippers check every box of a championship contender, own every advantage in this series, and they'll lean more on Zubac this postseason, whether by choice or force.

L.A. should be overwhelming favorites, but I still believe in Doncic's otherworldly abilities - and his penchant for rising to the occasion - enough that I'm giving Dallas a couple of games. Perhaps it's also still the memory of the Clippers' 2020 postseason flameout. I was shook by the fact even Leonard - who previously seemed inevitable in postseason settings - cratered down the stretch against the Denver Nuggets. L.A.'s capable of being both dominant and vulnerable. There's still a sense the team hasn't quite figured things out yet.

It's also worth noting Dallas - which beat the Clippers once with Leonard in the lineup - performed better than any other team this year against the NBA's top tier.

There are plenty of reasons to pick L.A. in this series, but there are also enough indicators to suggest Doncic's Mavs won't just roll over.

Series X-factor

Wolfond: Tim Hardaway Jr.

Only three teams hoisted more 3-pointers than Dallas this season, and no Maverick launched them as often as Hardaway, who averaged 9.6 attempts per 36 minutes. His accuracy didn't quake under the volume, as he connected on 39.1% of those long-range tries. His shooting has the power to swing a game or two.

As a release valve who can capitalize on Doncic's on-ball gravity by drilling spot-up threes, Hardaway is pretty reliable. The in-between game is what comes and goes, and that's the unknown that could change the shape of the series. The Mavs need their complementary players to make productive plays when Doncic gets rid of the ball. Spot-up shooting is great, but what happens when those shooters get run off the arc?

Hardaway has shown the ability to attack closeouts and make plays off the bounce, and his incredible conversion rate at the rim (69.6%) shows how effective he can be as a straight-line driver. But he also gets tunnel vision, and when he can't get all the way to the basket, he tends to settle for ill-advised mid-range jumpers and floaters rather than reading rotations and finding the open man.

The Clippers do a good job of closing out and suppressing opponents' 3-point volume, which means Hardaway could be put in those situations a lot. How he handles them will have a lot to say about how Dallas' offense holds up against one of the league's best defenses.

Casciaro: Playoff P

The jokes may be played out, but let's not pretend George doesn't have a ton to prove this postseason.

It's simple. If the efficient, MVP-ballot-caliber PG that's appeared for most of the last three regular seasons or so shows up, and if George continues to diversify his offense with more drives - as he's done this campaign - the Clippers will be too much for Dallas, and can absolutely win a championship.

If the hesitant, indecisive version of George that plagued the Clippers last fall returns, and the seven-time All-Star settles for being a jumper-happy afterthought - even when that jumper isn't falling - L.A. will struggle to get out of the first round.

The good news for the Clippers is that given the player and shooter George is, the safest money is still on the best version of PG showing up for this playoff run. If he doesn't, it'll probably be best he takes a break from social media for a while.