Biggest questions about 2026 Baseball HOF ballot

The Baseball Writers' Association of America will announce the results of the 2026 Hall of Fame ballot Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET. This year's vote will be fascinating, with potential ramifications for both the short and long term. To get you ready, let's dive into some of the biggest questions about the 2026 ballot.

Who's up for election anyway? The 2026 ballot contains 27 names, including 12 first-time candidates and one in his 10th and final year of eligibility. Players need 75% of the vote to be elected; those who earn less than 5% will be dropped from future ballots.

Why is this first-year class so weak? This really is one of the thinnest crops of debutants in ages. The pandemic-shortened 2020 season might have something to do with it - but truthfully, there's no good answer. Sometimes it just works out this way.

Seriously, though. Not one newcomer has a shot at first-ballot induction? No. Most of the first-timers are already assured of going one-and-done. Still, it's an honor to simply make the ballot, and these players all had tremendous careers they should be proud of.

OK, that's all fair. But are you telling me that not one first-time candidate will get to 5%? Well, there is one: Cole Hamels is currently polling at 31.5% on Ryan Thibodaux's tracker. Not only is he assured of coming back in 2027, he also might have a real shot at getting in down the road.

Hamels doesn't immediately stand out as a HOF starter: He only led his league in one major category (WHIP in 2008) and never finished higher than fifth in Cy Young voting. But he did quietly author a stellar career as a workhorse left-hander, ranking 12th in innings pitched (2,698) and seventh in strikeouts (2,560) since 2000. Playoff heroics, most notably winning both the 2008 NLCS and World Series MVPs while leading the Phillies to a title, and a no-hitter also boost his resume. On the metrics side, Hamels sits 72nd in S-JAWS and 71st in bWAR - well back of the HOF averages, but also on par with and even ahead of multiple Cooperstown inductees and several other well-known "borderline" names, including Johan Santana and Félix Hernández.

Last year, we outlined how Hernández will serve as the test case for what makes a modern Hall of Fame pitcher. Hamels now seems to be joining him as a pitching bellwether, and he might get off to a better start than his ballot-mate did in 2025.

Cool! But if there's no first-ballot lock, will the writers pitch a shutout? Barring something truly unforeseen, Era Committee selection Jeff Kent will have company on stage in July. The weak first-year class allows writers to begin clearing the ballot's backlog, starting with the likely election of Carlos Beltrán.

Though he never led a major offensive category and missed out on major milestones due to some hard-luck injuries, prime Beltrán was arguably his generation's greatest center fielder. A true five-tool talent, he's one of only eight players to record at least 300 career homers and steals. He ranks top 30 all time in both doubles and extra-base hits, owns the highest stolen-base percentage (86.4%) among players with at least 300 attempts, and has the third-most defensive runs saved (38) in center since the stat was introduced in 2003. Beltrán's a hair below the average HOF center fielder in both JAWS and b-WAR; everyone above him in both categories, save for the active Mike Trout, is already in.

At this point, the only reason it's taken so long to get him in is his prominent role in the Astros' sign-stealing scandal. Beltrán was the only active player named in the commissioner's report on the scandal, and the revelation cost him his job as Mets skipper before he even managed a game. Beltrán reached Cooperstown's doorstep last January when he received 70.3% of the vote; of the 26 players who crossed the 70% threshold without reaching 75% since modern BBWAA voting began in 1966, only four failed to be elected the following year, according to FanGraphs' Jay Jaffe.

Beltrán's now at 88.9% in the tracker, with a net gain of 12 on returning ballots and 100% of support from first-time voters. He's going in.

Who else has a legitimate chance? Based on the tracker, Andruw Jones is the only other candidate who should be keeping his phone charged Tuesday. Jones has a legitimate case as the greatest defensive center fielder ever. He's got the hardware - 10 Gold Gloves, trailing only Willie Mays and Roberto Clemente among outfielders; the stats - his 235 fielding runs, a metric that tracks defense across all eras, are 50 more than second-place Mays in center; and the highlights to dazzle in the eye test.

Jones' defense was so great that it credibly builds his entire Hall of Fame case, even accounting for his rapid decline at age 31. Without that sudden drop-off and a late-career move to Japan, he likely would've reached 2,000 MLB hits and maybe even 500 homers. Jones was a better hitter than you might remember - he won the Hank Aaron Award for his 51-homer 2005 season - but the lack of round offensive numbers forces his defense to carry the load. That's hurt his case with traditional voters and slowed his climb toward Cooperstown. Writers have never elected a player who played entirely in the expansion era (since 1961) and finished with fewer than 2,000 hits.

Jones, who debuted at 7.3% in 2018, finished above 60% in each of the last two cycles and is polling in this year's tracker at 83.8%. So yes, even if it's not as cut-and-dried as Beltrán, Jones has a real chance at election.

What about the steroid guys? Manny Ramirez, arguably the best right-handed hitter since World War II, was twice suspended by MLB for using PEDs. He's polling barely below 40% in his final year of eligibility. Alex Rodriguez, maybe the greatest shortstop ever and the face of the 2013 Biogenesis drug scandal, has a net gain of nine in the tracker, but his final numbers will almost certainly drop. It's just not going to happen for them. First-year candidate Ryan Braun - who was suspended for his own role in Biogenesis, two years after having a 50-game PED ban overturned on a technicality - will go one-and-done. His numbers never came close to the Hall's standard anyway.

The only candidate to watch with a known history of banned substance use is Andy Pettitte. He was named in the Mitchell Report and later admitted to using human growth hormone (a banned substance that's technically not a steroid) while recovering from an injury in 2002. Pettitte never failed a drug test after MLB began its program in 2004. Despite being far from a statistical lock, the Yankees icon is once again rapidly gaining support and seems poised to make a major jump for the second straight year.

Since it's so wide-open, who else could make big gains? The two names with skyrocketing support are Chase Utley and Félix Hernández. Utley, the Phillies' rock during their great late-aughts run, failed to reach 2,000 hits and inexplicably never won a Gold Glove. Yet he still ranks among the best second basemen ever based on an array of metrics. It seems like more voters are realizing this: After a very strong showing in his first two years, Utley's polling at 68.1% in the tracker with a net gain of 20.

Hernández's stock is soaring in Year 2. His net gain of 44 votes is by far the highest in the tracker, putting him in position to make a gigantic year-over-year leap. King Félix should have plenty of reason to smile Tuesday.

Other names to watch? Bobby Abreu, Mark Buehrle, and Jimmy Rollins are polling OK but still need tons of help. If Rollins can maintain his standing for now, the rapid rise of Utley - his longtime double-play partner - could help him in the long run, be it with the writers or a committee. For Abreu, another overlooked Phillies great, and Buehrle, who ate innings like nobody else in the 21st century, it's a bit of a different story because time is just not on their side. They should be hoping for more marginal gains to simply get into the 30% range, which might let them dream of a miracle.

And don't forget about Dustin Pedroia and David Wright, a pair of one-team icons who were flying toward Cooperstown before getting cut down by injuries. Their candidacies are still young, and after hanging onto their spots last year, they've both picked up a bit of new support in the tracker. Where they finish Tuesday could tell us a lot about future voting trends.