MLB offseason: Analyzing Tucker, Bichette, plus all major moves

The MLB offseason is underway. Follow along for analysis of all major transactions over the winter.

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Kyle Tucker I Ranger Suárez I Nolan Arenado I Alex Bregman I Edward Cabrera I Kazuma Okamoto I Tatsuya Imai I December I November

Jan. 16

Mets quickly pivot to Bichette after Tucker miss

✍️ 3-year, $126M contract

What it means for Mets: Just 14 hours after missing out on Kyle Tucker, the Mets quickly pivoted to the next-best bat available in Bo Bichette. It seemed like the 27-year-old was poised to land in Philadelphia, and a reported seven-year, $200-million contract with the Phillies was apparently in the works before New York offered Bichette a loaded short-term deal with a pair of opt-outs. The Mets must be thrilled to get a player of Bichette's caliber while keeping him away from one of their biggest rivals.

David Stearns has spent the offseason completely remaking his roster, and Bichette represents the third new infielder brought in alongside Jorge Polanco and Marcus Semien. Bichette and Semien grew particularly close during their time with the Blue Jays, so the Mets' newest signing is likely excited about the reunion, and Semien's mentorship should help as Bichette changes positions.

The lifetime shortstop entered the winter open to moving to second base, but Bichette will slide over to third in Queens. He hasn't played third base at any level since turning pro in 2016. He graded out as a poor defensive shortstop, though playing alongside Francisco Lindor should help cover for his limited range. Bichette also has a below-average arm, which will be tested at his new position. However, the Mets are hoping that a less physically taxing spot on the diamond will keep Bichette healthier.

What the Mets are really paying for here is Bichette's excellent bat. He's coming off a season in which he slashed .311/.357/.483 with 18 home runs and 44 doubles while posting a career-best 14.5 K% across 139 games. Bichette would have easily led New York in batting average last season, and he had one fewer extra-base hit than Juan Soto despite 87 fewer plate appearances. The trio of Lindor, Soto, and Bichette at the top of the lineup is elite, helping mitigate the losses of Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo.

Bichette's patience in free agency paid off, and he capitalized on Tucker landing in Los Angeles. Though Bichette didn't ink a long-term deal, by securing a $42-million AAV - the fourth highest in MLB in 2026 - with a pair of opt-outs, he sets himself up nicely. If Bichette proves himself to be a capable third baseman in 2026, he can re-enter the market next winter as arguably the top free-agent position player and won't be attached to a qualifying offer.

Tucker was a cleaner positional fit - the Mets still need to address their outfield - but signing Bichette for $126 million is a much better use of the club's resources. We'll see what Stearns does with the money that's perceived to be "left over."

What it means for Blue Jays: It never felt like Toronto truly pursued a reunion with Bichette, as evidenced by how quickly he signed with the Mets despite the Blue Jays missing out on Tucker. The writing was on the wall for Bichette last winter when Toronto acquired Andrés Giménez, who will take over full time at shortstop.

The Blue Jays' lineup remains solid, especially after signing Kazuma Okamoto, who fits the team's contact-oriented approach. Some observers will also point out how well Toronto played in September and most of October without Bichette. But subtracting his bat from this lineup is still a significant loss, and it puts a lot of pressure on the supporting cast. Anthony Santander becomes an enormous X-factor for the club.

Bichette led the Blue Jays in hits, doubles, extra-base hits, and average last season while finishing top three in OBP, slugging, and OPS. Losing Bichette at the expense of signing Tucker would have been completely justifiable, but not having either one takes some sting out of the offense.

The free-agent position player class has significantly thinned out, although Cody Bellinger is still available. Bellinger would be a really strong fit, and he'd offer some stability with George Springer and Daulton Varsho a year away from free agency, but he's reportedly seeking a seven-year deal worth roughly $30 million per season. The Blue Jays could opt to pursue a trade instead, or go into the season with the lineup as currently constructed, and they've still had a successful winter either way.

Jan. 15

Dodgers land Tucker with jaw-dropping deal

✍️ 4-year, $240M contract

What it means for the Dodgers: Mets owner Steve Cohen was asking for smoke. Well, he and the rest of the league got it. As New York and Toronto awaited Kyle Tucker's decision, Los Angeles put together an offer so big that you'd be forgiven if you initially thought it was a typo. The $240-million deal carries the second-highest average annual value ($57.1 million) in MLB history behind Shohei Ohtani after calculating deferrals.

If you're Tucker, how could you say no? He gets to join the reigning World Series champs, he received a record AAV, he can hide on a roster loaded with other big stars, he gets to live in Los Angeles, and he has the option to re-enter free agency in his age-31 season. That's a tough package for any other MLB team to beat.

So, the rich get richer. Tucker is the second star player the Dodgers have added this winter in addition to closer Edwin Díaz. It seems a bit silly to say, but Los Angeles actually needed to add an impact bat like Tucker despite winning back-to-back titles. The Dodgers ranked 20th in outfield fWAR last season after moving Mookie Betts to shortstop, so Tucker will serve as a significant upgrade.

While Tucker no doubt cashed in, it was a bit of a surprise how small his market was, with only three teams reportedly really in the mix. It's like the rest of the league forgot how good he is following a somewhat down season for the Cubs, which he played a large portion of while battling injury.

Since 2021, Tucker ranks fourth among MLB outfielders in fWAR behind Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Betts. Over that span, he's had two 30-homer seasons and owns an .878 OPS, 143 wRC+, and 105 stolen bases. He has an elite approach, ranking in 85th percentile in strikeout rate and 96th percentile in walk rate. He doesn't chase and owns neutral splits as a left-handed hitter (.877 career OPS versus RHP, .842 OPS versus LHP). He's a great player.

Is this bad for baseball? Plenty of owners will certainly argue that next winter when they push for a salary cap during new CBA talks. The Miami Marlins' entire competitive balance tax payroll for 2026 currently sits at $79.6 million. The reality is, the Dodgers have created such a desirable place to play that it's hard for any player to turn them down. But they also spend the money and have an elite player development system. They're firing on all cylinders and operating in a way that's simply unmatched. Until the rules change or other teams outbid them, this machine will keep rolling. Someone will have to beat them.

What it means for the Blue Jays: Ross Atkins has to be getting pretty sick of the Dodgers. Tucker would've been such a perfect fit for this Blue Jays team given his skill set and would have served as an excellent long-term complement to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Toronto's already had an incredibly aggressive and productive offseason, and Tucker would have been the final piece to that puzzle. There's certainly time and talent remaining on the market if the club chooses to pivot, and there's one familiar face in Bo Bichette still unsigned. Reuniting with Bichette makes a lot of sense, especially if he's willing to move to second base, but the Blue Jays' pursuit of Tucker has opened the door for teams like the Phillies to host Bichette for a meeting.

If the Blue Jays aren't sold on Bichette, maybe they turn to Cody Bellinger, who reportedly reached an impasse with the Yankees. The Dodgers landing Tucker only benefits the markets of Bichette and Bellinger. The pair just gained a lot of leverage. Given Toronto is already operating above the $300-million CBT mark, it could also opt to deal some of its position player depth to add more of an impact bat. As much of a blow as it is to miss out on Tucker, there are still a number of creative options on the table.

What it means for Mets: New York reportedly made Tucker a four-year, $220-million offer. Maybe Cohen should have sold a Picasso from his collection to cover the difference. In all seriousness, it's almost unconceivable to think that New York's $55-million AAV was outbid only a year after the club broke records to sign Soto. Its offer just wasn't enough this time.

The Mets have a much bigger need for an outfielder than the Dodgers, and it seems unlikely they join the bidding for Bichette, making Bellinger a prime target. David Stearns has already lured Devin Williams and Luke Weaver across town this winter, so why not add a third former Yankee? If the Mets don't want to pay Bellinger, who's reportedly seeking a seven-year deal, they could pivot to the trade market. Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran could be a potential fit. Stearns could also pivot to the starting pitching market with Framber Valdez and Zac Gallen among the arms still unsigned.

L.A.'s now swooped in and landed both Díaz and Tucker this winter. There's a bit of irony that the owners were so concerned about Cohen when he took over the Mets that they added the "Cohen Tax" to the CBA - only for him to be outbid by the Dodgers.

Jan. 14

Red Sox rebound from Bregman with Suárez

✍️ 5-year, $130M contract

What it means for Red Sox: Craig Breslow has done it! He signed a free agent! Boston was the last team to ink a player to a guaranteed deal this winter, and it was worth the wait. After missing out on reuniting with Alex Bregman, Breslow shifted his focus to the rotation, bringing in Ranger Suárez on the richest deal he's ever handed to a free agent in his three years as chief baseball officer with the Red Sox.

The 30-year-old Suárez spent his entire eight-year career in Philadelphia before hitting the open market this offseason. He's a legitimate starter, though he doesn't come with big velocity (seventh percentile) or strikeout numbers (8.6 K/9). He's also never thrown more than 158 innings and has missed time in each of the last two seasons with a back injury, making Boston's $130-million commitment a bit of a gamble. But the Red Sox couldn't afford the optics of being outbid again. What Suárez does well is eliminate hard contact, induce a lot of groundballs (48%), limit walks (2.2 BB/9), and keep the ball in the yard (0.8 HR/9). Those are all indicators that he should age well over the course of his deal. Suárez has also been an incredible playoff performer, posting a 1.48 ERA over 42 2/3 postseason innings.

Suárez slides in behind Garrett Crochet and gives Boston one of the deepest pitching staffs in the majors. The Red Sox can deploy any combination of Brayan Bello, Sonny Gray, Johan Oviedo, Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval, Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, and Kyle Harrison to fill out the rest of the rotation. You have to imagine the organization will package some of that depth in a trade for a much-needed bat. With Crochet, Bello, and Suárez all under contract through at least the 2029 season, Breslow could use one of Tolle or Early as a headliner in a deal for an impact position player. Suárez's addition makes trading one of those top prospects a little easier to swallow.

Boston's CBT payroll now sits at approximately $266 million - well above the first luxury-tax threshold. The club has been linked to Bo Bichette, though we'll see how aggressive the front office remains on free-agent spending. With numerous holes in the infield, there are a number of directions the Red Sox could go, but they must land at least one more impact bat before they can truly be considered a World Series threat.

Jan. 13

Cardinals' selloff continues with Arenado landing in Arizona

What it means for D-Backs: All the focus surrounding Arizona this winter has been on whether or not the club will trade star second baseman Ketel Marte. But after GM Mike Hazen declared he wouldn't deal Marte, he went to work bolstering his 2026 roster.

Arenado is certainly no longer the All-Star-caliber player he once was. He's coming off a season in which he posted career worsts in average (.237), on-base percentage (.289), slugging (.377), and OPS (.666). The 34-year-old also ranks in the bottom part of the league in hard-hit %, exit velocity, and barrel %. Although the offensive drop off has been considerable over the last two years, the D-Backs can still find value in his glove - especially considering they're only on the hook for $11 million spread across the next two seasons. To Arenado's credit, he remains difficult to strike out, posting an 11.2 K% in 2025, which ranked 10th-best in MLB (Min. 400 PAs).

The 10-time Gold Glove winner is still an excellent defender and a positive fWAR player who gives the club some certainty at a position where they failed to get much after trading away Eugenio Suárez. What Arenado's acquisition means for Jordan Lawlar remains to be seen. The 23-year-old dominated Triple-A last season but struggled in 28 games in the majors. All three of his defensive infield spots appear to be filled, though the D-Backs should be able to still get him enough at-bats by rotating through the DH spot. Arizona will hope that a fresh start and playing for a club with aspirations of winning can squeeze a little more out of Arenado. Worst-case, he serves as a veteran infielder who can mentor younger players, like Lawlar.

What it means for Cardinals: St. Louis finally succeeded in trading away Arenado after attempting to do so for over a year. This winter has marked a considerable sell-off under the Cardinals' new president of baseball operations, Chaim Bloom, as he's now dumped the salaries of Arenado, Sonny Gray, and Willson Contreras. Bloom's ability to carve out playing time for younger players and shed payroll should help him mold his roster in his view. Ownership deserves credit, as the club is on the hook for approximately $59 million in salary for that trio to not play for them.

Brendan Donovan appears to be the next player Bloom could move, potentially opening the door for top prospect JJ Wetherholt to crack the Opening Day roster. While Bloom acquired some decent prospects in the earlier trades, Donovan represents his greatest trade chip, and there won't be any need to cover his salary to facilitate a deal. St. Louis is entering somewhat of a soft rebuild, but there's still a lot of young talent on this roster, and they could be an entertaining watch this season. The Cardinals currently don't have a position player on the projected 26-man roster over 30 years old.

Jan. 10

Cubs land marquee bat in Bregman

✍️ 5-year, $175M contract

What it means for Cubs: Chicago's awoken from its offseason slumber with an eventful three days. The addition of Bregman helps mitigate some of the offense lost with Kyle Tucker hitting free agency, and gives the Cubs an elite defense on the left side of the infield when paired with Dansby Swanson. Interestingly enough, Bregman was the second pick in the 2015 draft behind Swanson, and wears No. 2 because of it. Now the two are teammates.

Bregman brings a lot to a Cubs team that's coming off their first playoff appearance in five years. Chicago finished 27th in fWAR and 29th in OPS at third base last season, so Bregman immediately addresses a significant need. He also does a great job controlling the zone, and is coming off a season in which he posted a 14.1 K% and 10.3 BB%. That should mesh well with a Cubs team that struck out the sixth-fewest times in the majors in 2025.

Bregman's made the playoffs in each of the last nine seasons, has won two World Series titles, and has been heralded for his strong leadership. He'll be able to mentor some of the team's younger players in Pete Crow-Armstrong, Moisés Ballesteros, Kevin Alcántara, and Matt Shaw, though this does open the door for the team to potentially trade Shaw.

Wrigley Field will likely be the worst offensive home ballpark for Bregman in his career, but he surprisingly posted a higher OPS on the road (.875) than at Fenway Park (.761) last season, which is a bit of a surprise given his pull-heavy swing (47.4%). Bregman increased his hard-hit rate and exit velocity in 2025 over the previous season, though he sat somewhat troublingly in the 31st percentile in bat speed.

It's nice to see the Cubs being aggressive and acting like a big-market team once again. And, in Bregman, they have a core veteran locked up long term. Chicago only had $55 million committed in guaranteed salary in 2027, so it was able to stretch themselves in order to get Bregman signed.

What it means for Red Sox: So, what now for Boston? The Red Sox fully hitched their wagon to Bregman last season, and even with the opt-opts in his deal, it always felt like the two sides would work something out long term. But now, the organization caused an entire mess with Rafael Devers for one season of Bregman, and now they have neither. What makes it even worse is they are still in search of a middle-of-the-order bat, and are facing a potential hole at third base. Yikes.

Boston is the only team that has yet to sign a free agent to a guaranteed contract this winter. Yes, they've traded for Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, and Johan Oviedo, but there is a clear reluctance to bid at the top of the free-agent market under Craig Breslow. This regime does not seem to want to spend big or offer long-term deals to players in their 30s.

With Bregman off the board, the pressure really ramps up for Boston. Luckily, there's still a number of options in free agency should the club feel any urgency. Signing Bo Bichette and deploying him at second base makes a lot of sense, though he will almost assuredly cost more than Bregman. Kyle Tucker fits on any team, though Boston is deep in left-handed hitting outfielders. Eugenio Suárez is the top third base option remaining on the market. There are also potential trade candidates like Alec Bohm, Brendan Donovan, Isaac Paredes, and Nolan Arenado.

Unlike other seasons, it doesn't appear as if the big free agents will see their markets collapse. So Breslow is likely going to need to step outside his comfort zone if he's to land a key bat in free agency, or swing yet another trade.

Jan. 7

Cubs finally make big move with Cabrera trade

What it means for Cubs: After making a number of depth moves, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer finally took a big swing this offseason by acquiring Edward Cabrera. The right-hander is an enticing starter who's struggled to stay healthy throughout his five-year career. He threw a combined 294 MLB innings for the Marlins from 2021-2024 while landing on the injured list seven different times over that span with various ailments, including shoulder and elbow issues. What's encouraging for the Cubs, though, is that Cabrera is coming off the best season of his career: a 3.53 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 1.23 WHIP, and 150 strikeouts over 137 2/3 innings in 2025. He did miss almost four weeks in September with a right elbow sprain, but came off the IL to make two starts down the stretch, and will head into this spring healthy.

Chicago's done a great job getting the most out of its starting pitching in recent years, and there's reason to think they'll be able to do the same with Cabrera. He brings big-time velocity and also throws some strong secondary pitches, although hitters feasted on his sinker last year (.609 SLG). He was, however, able to lower his walk rate by over a full batter from 2024 and did a better job limiting home runs. Cabrera also comes with three years of team control at an extremely modest cost; he's projected to earn just $3.7 million through arbitration in 2026. Even if he's more of a No. 4 starter long term, the Cubs should still consider that a win.

With Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, and potentially Matthrew Boyd all hitting free agency after the coming season, Chicago desperately needed to acquire a pitcher with some years of control. The question for the Cubs, though, is why they were willing to deal away their top prospect for pitching help, rather than just signing one of the top free-agent arms. Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, and Zac Gallen are all still available, and each has longer track records of health and success. They'll obviously all come at a much higher dollar figure, but Chicago sits well below the first luxury-tax threshold, and only has $55 million in guaranteed salary committed to the 2027 roster. This shouldn't be an issue for a big-market team.

If the Cubs are able to use the savings from Cabrera's salary to sign an impact bat or even another starter, this move makes a lot more sense. Owen Caissie wasn't going to take at-bats away from any regulars in 2026, but he was projected to potentially replace Kyle Tucker's production long term. Now, they might need to find that production outside the organization.

What it means for Marlins: Miami's once again dealt from its starting pitching depth to try and address a long-term offensive need. Trading Trevor Rogers to Baltimore for Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby at the 2024 deadline worked out well for the Marlins, and the team now hopes Caissie is another foundational offensive piece to build around. The 23-year-old brings a lot of left-handed power to his new club's lineup, and has a legitimate shot at making the Marlins' Opening Day roster. He put up a .937 OPS with 22 home runs in 99 games at Triple-A Iowa last season.

The biggest knock on Caissie is there's a lot of swing-and-miss in his bat. He struck out in 28% of his plate appearances at Triple-A in 2025, and in 41% of his 27 big-league PAs after being called up to the Cubs in August. Caissie's still very young and likely will benefit from having made his debut last year, but he'll need to do a much better job controlling the strike zone if he's to reach is potential.

Still, the Marlins have to be thrilled to get a player with Caissie's ceiling, along with two other prospects (Hernandez is now No. 12 in their system) for a pitcher that they seemingly couldn't trust to be reliably healthy moving forward. Cabrera's career season allowed Miami to sell high and deal from an area of strength in order to get a power bat with the type of potential they almost certainly would never pay for in free agency.

Jan. 3

Blue Jays keep spending with surprise Okamoto addition

✍️ 4-year, $60M contract

What it means for Blue Jays: Toronto's aggressive offseason continues. With so much focus on whether the club will sign Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, or Bo Bichette, general manager Ross Atkins went off the board by bringing in Japanese corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto. The 29-year-old enjoyed an incredible 11-year career in NPB and possesses the exact offensive profile that's made the Blue Jays successful.

Okamoto has posted six 30-plus homer seasons since 2018 and is coming off a year in which he slashed .322/.411/.581 with 15 home runs, 23 doubles, and only 36 strikeouts in 314 plate appearances (77 games). While his power numbers will likely dip when moving to MLB, his ability to make contact, hit the ball in the air, and not strike out is a skill set that should translate easily. The ceiling might not be as high as Munetaka Murakami's, but the profile offers a higher floor.

Okamoto's arrival spurs several questions for Toronto, most importantly: Where does he play? He's mainly split time at first and third base, with a little bit of work in the outfield in Japan. Although he grades as an OK defensive player at the hot corner, there are concerns that his glove might not be good enough at the position at the major-league level. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. entrenched at first base for the next decade, the Blue Jays need to be confident that Okamoto can at least spend some time at third base. Toronto prides itself on bringing in players with defensive versatility, and as long as his bat plays, the organization will be able to find a spot for him. That said, the corner outfield and DH spots are now getting pretty crowded. The Blue Jays might need to move player(s) off the major-league roster to address other needs.

Bringing in Okamoto certainly doesn't take the Blue Jays out of the running for Bichette, Bregman, or Tucker, especially considering how aggressive the front office has been. However, this makes it slightly more complicated to get there. Toronto's CBT payroll now sits around $309 million for 2026 - the second-highest in MLB behind the Dodgers. The club hasn't really been operating with any payroll restrictions, but every team has its limits. Toronto has significant salaries coming off its books next winter, so maybe the front office sees this offseason as the perfect time to stretch its spending limits, given an underwhelming free-agent class and a potential lockout in 2027.

The Okamoto signing represents another really nice piece of business for the Blue Jays. If the team is able to still sign one of Bichette, Tucker, or Bregman, or acquire another star bat in a trade, the move looks even better. If Okamoto is the key bat the team acquires this winter, it changes the perception pretty drastically, as there will be more pressure on Addison Barger to build off a breakout season, and Anthony Santander to return to his 2024 All-Star form. We'll have to wait and see how the rest of the dominoes fall, but this is exactly the type of aggressive offseason you'd want to see from your team if it just fell short of winning a World Series.

Jan. 1

Astros address hole in rotation with Japanese ace

✍️ 3-year, $54M contract

What it means for Astros: Houston finally made a significant move with the surprise signing of Tatsuya Imai. The Astros needed to add at least one mid-rotation starter or better with Framber Valdez hitting free agency. Houston doesn't appear likely to bring back Valdez, though his return remains a possibility until he signs elsewhere. Imai can fill those innings, even if his ceiling is lower. If he pitches to expectations, he should slide in behind Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier as a capable arm.

Much like Munetaka Murakami, Imai signed a deal well beneath initial projections, as there's skepticism about how his stuff - in particular his secondary pitches - will translate to MLB and whether he can sustain his improved control. There's still a lot to be intrigued about after he pitched to a 1.92 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 9.8 K/9 over 24 starts last year in Japan. He only allowed six home runs across 163 2/3 innings. The ability to keep the ball in the park should boost his potential for success in the majors.

While Imai didn't land a lucrative, long-term contract, his ability to opt out after each of the next two seasons could be very valuable. If he pitches well in 2026, he can hit the open market again entering his age-29 season. This deal also carries almost no risk for the Astros. If Imai opts out, they get a very capable starter for at least one season at a relatively inexpensive salary ($18 million-$21 million based on innings pitched). Even if he struggles and performs like a back-end starter, he's only signed for three years at a reasonable cost.

Houston's front office did well to land Imai, but it really needs to add more impactful starting pitching. Brown is a legitimate ace, but there are a lot of questions behind him: Javier's made 15 starts over the last two seasons, Lance McCullers Jr. has continued to struggle to remain healthy and effective, and Mike Burrows has thrown more than 100 innings in a season just once since turning pro in 2021.

Earlier offseason moves 👉