4 questions for the 2nd half of the NHL season
As teams sidle up to and beyond the 41-game mark, the look of the 2014-15 season has started to take some permanent shape. Random example: The Edmonton Oilers have nine wins through 41 contests, so I feel pretty comfortable writing them off.
But there’s still plenty that hangs in the balance, so it feels like the right time to dial in which situations are the most volatile, and in turn worth keeping an eye on during the NHL’s second act.
Let’s dive in.
Are the Nashville Predators the team they appeared to be in the first half?
The Predators are certainly a better team than what many – most, actually – thought they would be heading into the season. It wasn’t necessarily that people thought they were bad, they just figured, hey, in a division with the Chicago Blackhawks and St. Louis Blues, a Colorado Avalanche team coming off a 112-point season, a stacked looking Minnesota Wild team and a much-improved Dallas Stars team, being just OK is going to get you trounced.
Well, they’re currently leading the division. That’s better than OK.
The Predators are a team with a rock solid D-corps (Shea Weber is a stud, Seth Jones is greatly improved, Roman Josi is great and Ryan Ellis took a huge stride this season) and possibly the best goaltender in hockey in Pekka Rinne. That’s going to win you hockey games.
They also seem like a team with a pretty mediocre group of forwards, to be polite. Mike Ribeiro and James Neal have been good, and young Filip Forsberg has become a first liner, but compared to the top talent of other contenders that’s not a very impressive group. All through the forward lineup, you can say they look fine enough, I guess, but they don’t have the difference makers you need to break open close playoff games.
If I had to guess, I’d say the Preds end up in a fight for home ice in playoffs, and once they get there, things will tighten up on that middling group of forwards, and they’ll struggle to produce enough offense to win.
Could Sidney Crosby fail to lead the league in scoring in a year he stays healthy? What’s going on there?
Yes, yes he could. Surprising, but very possible. Sid’s shot rate has gone down this season, which has become an easy number to point to for his declining output (he’s still seventh in the league with 43 points in 37 games, I should note), but the real question is why is it declining.
My best guess: Crosby has dealt with a mishmash of mediocre linemates throughout the season and this is a player who’s made it very clear he thrives on consistency. This season – again, this is in 37 games for Sid – he’s started the year with eight different sets of wingers. Those combos:
Chris Kunitz-Patric Hornqvist, Nick Spaling-Hornqvist, Kunitz-Pascal Dupuis, Evgeni Malkin-Bryan Rust, Kunitz-Blake Comeau, Kunitz-Rust, Spaling-Steve Downie, David Perron-Downie.
Surely this mess isn’t the sole reason he’s not on his usual scoring throne above the league, but it certainly doesn’t help. There’s no denying he’s still the odds-on favorite to win the Art Ross, of course. But he’s got some ground to make up, and he’s not in a situation he loves.
Which teams are sitting furthest from their true ability?
Our contenders:
The Avalanche are on pace to finish behind last season’s point total by about 30. Are they really this bad?
The Stars have been on an absolute tear of late, but still find themselves fifth in the Central after their abysmal start. They still have some climbing to do.
The Winnipeg Jets are 20-13-7 in a brutally tough division despite going into the year as one of the perceived Connor McDavid frontrunners. They have to fall off some, don’t they?
The Calgary Flames are above .500 by four games despite one of the more under-talented rosters in hockey. No offense meant there, Calgary, but you’re probably better off in the hunt for a top pick anyway.
And, the Wild were supposed to compete for the division lead and find themselves a point out of dead last in the Central. This makes Mike Yeo upset.
But, no, our winner in “farthest from where they should be” (points-wise) is the Columbus Blue Jackets, who didn’t just run into the injury bug to start the season, they ran head-first, mouth-open into a swarm that took no mercy on them.
They’re 12-2-1 since the start of December, fifth in the Metro (and still nine points out of fourth) and don’t look like a team ready to slow down. They’re your prototypical team that grabs a Wild Card spot after a four-month tear that makes a top seed go “please not them, please not them.”
Can Travis Hamonic or Johnny Boychuk be the anchor the Islanders need?
The Islanders appear to be Real Deal Holyfield after adding Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolay Kulemin, Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy in the same offseason that saw their young talent finally take the long-awaited steps they’d been hoping to see.
The thing is, every true Cup contender has a defenseman (or defensemen) they can lean on. The Blackhawks have Duncan Keith, the Los Angeles Kings have Drew Doughty, the Boston Bruins have Zdeno Chara, the Detroit Red Wings had Nick Lidstrom, the Anaheim Ducks had Chris Pronger. While exceptions exist (the 2009 Penguins), they’re extremely rare.
So if the Isles want to be more than just “improved” and actually contend, it will be interesting to see if the 30-year-old Boychuk can be step up, or if the 24-year-old Hamonic can fill that role. Somebody’s going to have to become “that guy” for the Isles, and both those players seem on the fringe of being able to handle the heat.