NL Central Primer: Favored Cubs have high expectations
After an exciting offseason that brought them Jason Heyward, John Lackey, and Ben Zobrist, the Chicago Cubs are favored to not only win the NL Central, but take it all. Standing in their way are the St. Louis Cardinals who always find ways to win, and the Pittsburgh Pirates, whose outfield is among the best baseball's seen in a long time. The NL Central's three-headed monster should reign atop the division once again, but who ultimately takes home the pennant is going to make for an interesting race.
Division Primers
AL East | AL Central | AL West
NL East | NL Central | NL West
Chicago Cubs
2015 record: 97-65
2016 payroll: $163M (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 89 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 9-2 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Kris Bryant (5.6)
X-factor: Jon Lester
Prospect to watch: Gleyber Torres (MLB.com: #28; Baseball America: #41; Baseball Prospectus: #41)
Winter report card: A+
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Arrieta | 30.1 | 2.95 |
| Jon Lester | 32.2 | 3.16 |
| John Lackey | 37.4 | 3.68 |
| Jason Hammel | 33.6 | 3.76 |
| Kyle Hendricks | 26.3 | 3.49 |
Cubs win the division if ...
If the Cubs stay healthy and everyone plays to their capabilities, there is no doubt Chicago should be able to take home its first division crown since 2008. They have it all and the only team that could presumably beat them are themselves. But curses are a funny thing and there are no guarantees in baseball, so watching how things turn out for the Cubs should be one of the more interesting storylines of the season.
Prediction: 1st in NL Central (99-63)
St. Louis Cardinals
2015 record: 100-62
2016 payroll: $141.7M (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 87.5 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 15-1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Matt Carpenter (3.7)
X-factor: Matt Holliday
Prospect to watch: Alex Reyes (MLB.com: #13; BA: #7; BP: #10)
Winter report card: C-
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | 34.6 | 3.52 |
| Michael Wacha | 24.7 | 3.68 |
| Mike Leake | 28.4 | 3.99 |
| Jaime Garcia | 29.7 | 3.39 |
| Carlos Martinez | 24.5 | 3.47 |
Cardinals win the division if ...
The Cardinals always find ways to win. During a campaign without Holliday, Adam Wainwright, and Matt Adams, St. Louis still managed to win 100 games. The Cardinals have their ace back, but lost Lance Lynn for the entire year and are without Jhonny Peralta for two-to-three months. The Cardinals' pitching should be fine, but Holliday must return to form and support Matt Carpenter if they expect to outdo the Cubs and Pirates for the division crown.
Prediction: 2nd in NL Central (91-71)
Pittsburgh Pirates
2015 record: 98-64
2016 payroll: $95.8M (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 87 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 18-1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Andrew McCutchen (5.6)
X-factor: Gregory Polanco
Prospect to watch: Tyler Glasnow (MLB.com: #10; BA: #14; BP: #11)
Winter report card: C
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | 25.5 | 3.30 |
| Francisco Liriano | 32.4 | 3.35 |
| Jon Niese | 29.4 | 4.08 |
| Ryan Vogelsong | 38.7 | 4.37 |
| Juan Nicasio | 29.6 | 3.79 |
Pirates win the division if ...
Arguably the best outfield in baseball will be counted on once again. McCutchen is the heart and soul of the team, but he's got impressive backup in Polanco and Starling Marte. The club lost important pieces in the offseason, and acquired low-cost additions to replace that value, but the Pirates have been exceptional at finding worth in forgotten players in the past, so if the trend continues, they could be on track for another playoff appearance.
Prediction: 3rd in NL Central (88-74)
Milwaukee Brewers
2015 record: 68-94
2016 payroll: $50.2M (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 71.5 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 120-1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Jonathan Lucroy (2.7)
X-factor: Jeremy Jeffress
Prospect to watch: Orlando Arcia (MLB.com: #6; BA: #8; BP: #12)
Winter report card: D
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Wily Peralta | 26.9 | 4.55 |
| Jimmy Nelson | 26.8 | 4.30 |
| Matt Garza | 32.3 | 4.57 |
| Taylor Jungmann | 26.3 | 4.70 |
| Chase Anderson | 28.3 | 4.35 |
Brewers win the division if ...
Like Cincinnati, the Brewers are entering a rebuild, and figure to have little chance of winning the division. But the club still possesses the dangerous combination of Lucroy and Ryan Braun. The Brewers also brought in veteran additions such as Chris Carter and Aaron Hill to stabilize positions of need, but their rotation was one of the worst in the NL last season and it hasn't improved. In their current capacity, the Brewers look like a fourth-place club.
Prediction: 4th in NL Central (68-94)
Cincinnati Reds
2015 record: 64-98
2016 payroll: $78.9M (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 71 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 150-1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Joey Votto (4.6)
X-factor: Billy Hamilton
Prospect to watch: Jesse Winker (MLB.com: #34; BA: #51; BP: #50)
Winter report card: D-
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | 25.9 | 4.01 |
| Raisel Iglesias | 26.2 | 3.58 |
| Brandon Finnegan | 22.9 | 3.65 |
| Alfredo Simon | 34.9 | 4.28 |
| Jon Moscot | 24.6 | 4.41 |
Reds win the division if ...
Even with great seasons from Votto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Phillips, it's hard to envision the Reds placing anywhere but near the bottom of the NL Central. Their starting rotation lacks experience, their bullpen lost closer Aroldis Chapman, and they're in the initial phase of a long rebuild. Cincinnati should be in a dogfight with the Brewers to stay out of the division basement.
Prediction: 5th in NL Central (62-100)