AL West Primer: Young Astros ready to take flight
There's a changing of the guard happening in the American League West. Houston is ready to seize control of the division after years of building for this moment, while the Angels - long the kings of this roost - appear to be at a crossroads despite still employing arguably the game's best player. Of course, the state of Texas is home to two talented teams, both of whom are hungry for October success - which should make for a fascinating stretch drive.
Division Primers
AL East | AL Central | AL West
NL East | NL Central | NL West
Houston Astros
2015 record: 86-76
2016 payroll: $88,812,500 (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 85.5 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 10-1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Dallas Keuchel (4.8)
X-factor: Jason Castro
Prospect to watch: Alex Bregman (MLB.com: #22; Baseball America: #42; Baseball Prospectus: #39)
Winter report card: B+
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Keuchel | 28.2 | 3.03 |
| Collin McHugh | 28.8 | 3.84 |
| Mike Fiers | 30.8 | 3.73 |
| Scott Feldman | 33.1 | 4.31 |
| Doug Fister | 32.2 | 4.45 |
Astros win the division if ...
They learn from last year's mistakes. The Astros are young, talented, and are returning their 2015 wild-card winning roster virtually intact. They're also wiser after experiencing both the high of a playoff win at Yankee Stadium, and the low of their collapse in the ALDS just six outs from advancing. Last year's run will pay off for the Astros, especially when they battle with Texas down the stretch. Make no mistake, though: This team's just getting started.
Prediction: 1st in AL West (90-72)
Texas Rangers
2015 record: 88-74
2016 payroll: $157,014,990 (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 86 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 18-1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Adrian Beltre (3.8)
X-factor: Ian Desmond
Prospect to watch: Joey Gallo (MLB.com: #9; BA: #10; BP: #8)
Winter report card: C
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Cole Hamels | 32.3 | 3.79 |
| Derek Holland | 29.5 | 4.11 |
| Colby Lewis | 36.7 | 4.72 |
| Martin Perez | 25.0 | 3.94 |
| A.J. Griffin | 28.2 | 4.32 |
Rangers win the division if ...
They play to their potential. The Rangers have quietly built a good veteran team that's complemented by solid young players. There are still question marks, though: How effective will Yu Darvish be when he eventually returns? Will the Desmond left field experiment bring the defense down? Unlike last year, October baseball in Arlington is expected in 2016. Getting there as a division winner, however, means some hard work is in store.
Prediction: 2nd in AL West (88-74)
Seattle Mariners
2015 record: 76-86
2016 payroll: $136,144,260 (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 83 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 30-1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Felix Hernandez (4.3)
X-factor: Robinson Cano
Prospect to watch: Alex Jackson (MLB.com: #94; BA: NR; BP: #94)
Winter report card: B-
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Hernandez | 30.0 | 3.32 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | 35.0 | 3.51 |
| Wade Miley | 29.4 | 4.09 |
| Taijuan Walker | 23.6 | 3.77 |
| Nate Karns | 28.3 | 4.01 |
Mariners win the division if ...
They hit. Bats have long been the issue in spacious Safeco Field, and the right combination of mashers has eluded the Mariners. This year, they've decided to try a lefty-heavy lineup, with Nelson Cruz as the only true right-handed power threat. Hernandez will continue to be terrific, but the bats - especially Cano's - need to wake up quickly if baseball's longest postseason drought is going to end.
Prediction: 3rd in AL West (83-79)
Los Angeles Angels
2015 record: 85-77
2016 payroll: $160,586,190 (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 82.5 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 40-1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Mike Trout (9.0)
X-factor: Albert Pujols
Prospect to watch: Taylor Ward (MLB.com: NR; BA: NR; BP: NR)
Winter report card: C-
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Richards | 27.8 | 3.53 |
| Andrew Heaney | 24.8 | 3.85 |
| Jered Weaver | 33.5 | 4.36 |
| Hector Santiago | 28.3 | 4.02 |
| Matt Shoemaker | 29.5 | 3.66 |
Angels win the division if ...
The organization doesn't implode. Trout can do many things, but he can't wallpaper over this mess. The Angels need more production from their corner outfielders, Pujols has to finally live up to his megadeal, and their rotation has to hold up over 162 games if they're to have even a shot at this. There's also no farm system to provide help when it's inevitably needed. Trout is capable of carrying them to the playoffs, but last September's collapse could be a sign that trouble's brewing in Anaheim.
Prediction: 4th in AL West (79-83)
Oakland Athletics
2015 record: 68-94
2016 payroll: $80,613,334 (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 75.5 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 100-1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Sonny Gray (3.4)
X-factor: Sean Doolittle
Prospect to watch: Sean Manaea (MLB.com: #68; BA: #48; BP: #45)
Winter report card: C-
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 26.4 | 3.74 |
| Rich Hill | 36.1 | 4.05 |
| Chris Bassitt | 27.1 | 4.23 |
| Kendall Graveman | 25.3 | 4.53 |
| Felix Doubront | 28.4 | 4.18 |
Athletics win the division if ...
They catch some lucky breaks. A lot of the focus in Oakland has been on how quickly the team fell after trading Josh Donaldson. While all that was going on, Billy Beane quietly planted the seeds for the next surprising Athletics playoff run. Lots of holes still exist, from Billy Butler's contract, to the rotation behind Gray, but this team isn't short on talent. While they won't be contending for the playoffs this year, the Athletics could surprise a few people.
Prediction: 5th in AL West (76-86)