NL East Primer: Nationals, Mets to battle for crown
The National League East is expected to be a two-horse race this year, with the Washington Nationals and New York Mets set to do battle for top spot in the division. Washington is coming off a disastrous 2015 campaign, while New York is riding high following a trip to the World Series. Both teams have tweaked their rosters in anticipation of this year's dogfight, which should come down to the wire.
Division Primers
AL East | AL Central | AL West
NL East | NL Central | NL West
Washington Nationals
2015 record: 83-79
2016 payroll: $139.9M (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 87 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 14-1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Bryce Harper (6.5)
X-factor: Stephen Strasburg
Prospect to watch: Lucas Giolito (MLB.com: #3; Baseball America: #5; Baseball Prospectus: #3)
Winter report card: C
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 31 | 2.72 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 27 | 2.93 |
| Gio Gonzalez | 30 | 3.73 |
| Joe Ross | 22 | 3.90 |
| Tanner Roark | 29 | 4.13 |
Nationals win the division if ...
New manager Dusty Baker becomes a calming influence on a turbulent clubhouse. The health of Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, and Jayson Werth will also be key to the Nationals' success. Veteran closer Jonathan Papelbon grabbed headlines for all the wrong reasons after choking Harper last year, and with Drew Storen now gone, the pressure to close out games falls solely on his shoulders.
Prediction: 1st in NL East (90-72)
New York Mets
2015 record: 90-72
2016 payroll: $125.1M (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 88 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 10-1(Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Matt Harvey (4.5)
X-factor: David Wright
Prospect to watch: Steven Matz (MLB.com: #15; BA: #13; BP: #9)
Winter report card: A
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Harvey | 27 | 3.10 |
| Jacob deGrom | 27 | 3.17 |
| Noah Syndergaard | 23 | 3.14 |
| Steven Matz | 24 | 3.59 |
| Bartolo Colon | 42 | 3.84 |
Mets win the division if ...
There's no question New York boasts the top starting pitching staff in the division, and perhaps the entire major leagues. But will the Mets be able to score enough runs to capture a second straight NL East title? Re-signing Yoenis Cespedes certainly helps, but how new additions Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera fit into the equation offensively will likely determine this team's fate. Solid production from Wright would be an added bonus, but there are huge question marks surrounding his ailing back.
Prediction: 2nd in NL East (88-74)
Miami Marlins
2015 record: 71-91
2016 payroll: $62.5M (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 80.5 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 60-1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Giancarlo Stanton (5.1)
X-factor: Jose Fernandez
Prospect to watch: Jarlin Garcia (MLB.com: Not ranked; BA: Not ranked; BP: Not ranked)
Winter report card: B+
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Fernandez | 23 | 2.75 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | 30 | 3.37 |
| Jarred Cosart | 25 | 4.17 |
| Tom Koehler | 29 | 4.36 |
| Adam Conley | 25 | 3.93 |
Marlins win the division if ...
Fernandez puts together a Cy Young-worthy campaign, and Stanton slugs his way into the NL MVP conversation. Miami should have no issues scoring runs under the tutelage of new hitting coach Barry Bonds, but its starting pitching depth behind Wei-Yin Chen and Fernandez could potentially be a serious issue. Someone at the back end of the rotation (Jarred Cosart, Tom Koehler) will need to step into the spotlight.
Prediction: 3rd in NL East (81-81)
Atlanta Braves
2015 record: 67-95
2016 payroll: $74.3M (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 65 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 500-1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Freddie Freeman (3.8)
X-factor: Hector Olivera
Prospect to watch: Dansby Swanson (MLB.com: #8; BA: #17; BP: #27)
Winter report card: A+
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Teheran | 25 | 3.82 |
| Matt Wisler | 23 | 4.16 |
| Bud Norris | 31 | 3.86 |
| Williams Perez | 24 | 4.50 |
| Manny Banuelos | 25 | 4.45 |
Braves win the division if ...
The Braves are in full rebuild mode, so it's highly unlikely they'll finish anywhere close to .500. This team is looking ahead to its first season at new SunTrust Park in 2017, and its cupboard is stacked with high-profile prospects. Atlanta is likely in for a long season, but monitoring the development of its young players should be interesting. Cuban slugger Hector Olivera is one player who could make some noise with his big bat.
Prediction: 4th in NL East (70-92)
Philadelphia Phillies
2015 record: 63-99
2016 payroll: $77.1M (Cot's contracts)
Over/Under win total for 2016: 66.5 (Atlantis Race and Sports Book)
Odds to win World Series: 500-1 (Westgate Las Vegas odds)
Highest projected WAR: Maikel Franco (2.6)
X-factor: Aaron Nola
Prospect to watch: J.P. Crawford (MLB.com: #5; BA: #6; BP: #4)
Winter report card: B
Projected starting rotation
| Player | Age | Projected ERA (Steamer) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hellickson | 29 | 4.22 |
| Aaron Nola | 22 | 3.87 |
| Charlie Morton | 32 | 3.85 |
| Vincent Velasquez | 23 | 3.62 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | 25 | 4.02 |
Phillies win the division if ...
It's going to be another long season for the Phillies. They'll be competing to stay out of the basement with the Braves, but like Atlanta, also have some intriguing young players that could blossom. Franco is on a torrid home run pace this spring, and Nola has the potential to become an effective front-end starter. Veteran Ryan Howard is the carryover from the glory days, when Philadelphia captured five straight division titles from 2007-2011.
Prediction: 5th in NL East (67-95)