DFS: The Slate, Part II - A Detailed Look at the Week 12 Schedule
Here's a breakdown of the late-Sunday and Monday slate of games (click here for Part I; all times ET):
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers, 4:05 p.m.
Line: 49ers +8 (opened at +10 1/2)
O/U: 45 1/2 (opened at 44 1/2)
Weather: Clear, 56 F; N wind @ 3 mph
As Cardinals QB Carson Palmer consistently returns strong value, his salary hasn't budged much. That makes him a week-to-week lock, and Week 12 is no exception as he faces a woeful San Francisco defense he torched in Week 3. Play Palmer in all formats. ... RB Chris Johnson has had three rough weeks in a row, but a game against the 49ers - whom he scalded for 22-110-2 in Week 3 - should remedy things. That said, he may see his workload eased in order to keep him fresh, so consider him more of a high-floor cash-game play than a home-run GPP option. ... WR Larry Fitzgerald posted a 9-134-2 line in the first meeting with the Niners; duplicating that may be a tall task, but he's still an every-game lock with major upside. ... Whoever plays between John Brown and Michael Floyd is in for a solid day as a No. 2 option in a high-octane offense; if both suit up, Brown is a stronger option. ... The majority of the 49ers' skill players aren't strong GPP options; if you're looking for a long shot, consider WR Anquan Boldin, who should see enough volume regardless of game flow to return value on his bargain salary.
Prediction: Cardinals 31, 49ers 10
DFS MVP: Larry Fitzgerald
Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 p.m.
Line: Seahawks -3 (opened at -5 1/2)
O/U: 46 1/2 (opened at 44 1/2)
Weather: Clear, 47 F; SSE wind @ 6 mph
Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has had an extra week to allow his wonky knee to heal - and while the Seahawks defense is intimidating, it does have weaknesses. Big Ben is an acceptable tournament play this week, but avoid him in cash games. ... RB DeAngelo Williams has had better matchups, but sees the kind of volume that makes him a decent tournament option; it only takes one long run for him to return value. ... WR Antonio Brown went into the bye with 27 catches for 423 yards and two touchdowns in a two-game span. He can't be defended. Fire him up everywhere. ... Martavis Bryant has also been on fire, including a 178-yard, one-TD showing in Week 10. He's a nice stack alternative if you'd rather not pay up for Brown. ... Seahawks QB Russell Wilson is in good position to build on his three-TD showing in Week 11, with the Steelers having allowed the fifth-most passing yards. His price is right in both formats. ... RB Thomas Rawls is going to be a popular option this week, but you may be better off looking elsewhere; the Steelers are allowing just 3.8 yards per carry, and have allowed a paltry three rushing scores. Rawls will see enough volume to return modest value, but his upside is capped. ... Seahawks receiving options are an inconsistent bunch; if you're looking to roster one, choose Tyler Lockett, who has a bargain-basement price tag and the highest upside of the group. ... TE Jimmy Graham is an afterthought in the Seattle offense and daily fantasy alike. Stay away.
Prediction: Steelers 27, Seahawks 24
DFS MVP: Antonio Brown
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Broncos +2 (opened at +3 1/2)
O/U: 42 1/2 (opened at 46)
Weather: Snow, 23 F; NNW wind @ 3 mph
Tom Brady loves a challenge - and he has a big one this week, facing a Broncos defense limiting opponents to 191 passing yards per game with an 8:10 TD:INT ratio. Add in New England's battered receiving corps, and Brady should be left unowned this week. ... RB LeGarrette Blount has an equally tough task against a Denver run defense holding foes to 3.5 YPC. He'll need a score to return value, making him a GPP-only play - and a risky one, to boot. ... James White should see plenty of action, making him a sneaky tournament option. ... WR Danny Amendola is a decent tournament play if healthy; if he isn't, Brandon LaFell is the only receiver worth considering - and he has a brutal matchup with a relentless Denver secondary, making him unplayable. ... TE Rob Gronkowski will see plenty of targets - and double teams. Spending up for him in cash games is just too prohibitive given his low floor, and with TE value plays so critical in tournaments, you probably shouldn't roster him there, either. ... Broncos QB Brock Osweiler had a solid first start, but faces a much stiffer test this week. His price is low enough to make him a worthwhile punt option, but his ceiling isn't as high as other low-priced QBs. ... RBs Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson saw a 20-12 carry split last week; expect a similar breakdown against New England, making Hillman a stronger option in all formats. ... WR Demaryius Thomas should give the Patriots fits; he's a solid play across the board, and an absolute must-roster if Emmanuel Sanders misses the game. ... TEs Vernon Davis and Owen Daniels finished with 137 combined receiving yards in Week 11 - 69 for Davis and 68 for Daniels. With a virtual split in workload, neither player is a worthwhile option.
Prediction: Broncos 24, Patriots 23
DFS MVP: Demaryius Thomas
Monday
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Browns -3 1/2 (opened at -1)
O/U: 41(opened at 41)
Weather: Chance of rain, 41 F; ESE wind @ 11 mph
It has come to this for the Ravens: QB Matt Schaub will get the start following yet another season-ending injury to a Baltimore skill player. Don't even think about rostering Schaub in DFS. ... RB Javorius Allen is a popular DFS option this week, and should be a decent value play. The Browns have allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL, and game flow should keep the ball in Allen's hands. ... WR Kamar Aiken is the only receiver worth considering in daily fantasy - and with Schaub slinging the ball, his upside is minimal. ... TE Crockett Gillmore is in the same boat; he'd be a strong matchup play with a competent QB, but not this week. ... Browns QB Josh McCown exploded for a team-record 457 passing yards in his first meeting with Baltimore; he won't get close to that tally in this one, but 300 yards and multiple scores is a reasonable expectation. That makes him a sensational value play. ... RB Duke Johnson Jr. gets a bump in value with McCown under center, as does WR Travis Benjamin and TE Gary Barnidge. Johnson is playable in GPPs, as is Benjamin; Barnidge is a top-3 tight end option and is usable in all formats.
Prediction: Browns 24, Ravens 13
DFS MVP: Gary Barnidge