DFS: The Slate, Part I - A Detailed Look at the Week 12 Schedule
Here's a breakdown of Sunday's early slate of games (click here for Part II; all times ET):
New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Line: Texans -3 (opened at -3)
O/U: 48 (opened at 48)
Weather: Dome
Saints QB Drew Brees' home/road splits have been well-documented; he's a risky play against an improved Texans pass defense, though his floor remains among the highest at his position. ... RB Mark Ingram should also have a high floor against Houston's league-average run defense, with game flow expected to work in his favor. ... WR Brandin Cooks has emerged as the unquestioned No. 1 option, but this isn't an ideal matchup for him; the Texans have allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards and have been tough on top receivers. Avoid Cooks in anything but multi-entry GPPs as a deep flier. ... Willie Snead has fallen off the radar, and shouldn't be rostered. ... TE Benjamin Watson is Brees' safety valve, and should see a good share of targets in this one. Use him as a cost-saving play in all formats. ... Texans QB Brian Hoyer should tee off against a Saints defense that has allowed 17 passing touchdowns in the past four weeks and a league-worst 28 for the season. Former defensive coordinator Rob Ryan may be out of the picture, but the Saints won't be significantly better overnight. ... RB Alfred Blue sees enough volume to be an RB1, and New Orleans allows the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. He's a decent option in all formats. ... WR DeAndre Hopkins should be the highest-owned player in all formats - or at the very least, cash games. He should have no trouble racking up big chunks of yards in this one, and is the top WR of the week by a significant margin. ... Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts III are intriguing options, but it's hard to know which will emerge as the better play. Take a shot on either in GPPs, but avoid them in cash games.
Prediction: Texans 30, Saints 24
DFS MVP: DeAndre Hopkins
St. Louis Rams at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m.
Line: Bengals -10 (opened at -9)
O/U: 42 (opened at 42)
Weather: Mostly cloudy, 45 F; NE wind @ 7 mph
It doesn't really matter who is under center for the Rams - there's no DFS value there. Stay away from Case Keenum and the entire St. Louis receiving corps in Cincinnati. ... RB Todd Gurley is the only fantasy-relevant option on the team, and he's looking at a plus matchup against a Bengals run defense allowing a whopping 4.5 yards per carry. Gurley will see all the work he can handle - even if the Bengals build a lead - and has the highest floor at the position this week. Roster him everywhere. ... Bengals QB Andy Dalton has only had two dud games all season - but he may be headed for a third, with the Rams allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Fade him this week. ... RB Giovani Bernard remains the backfield option with the higher floor, while Jeremy Hill is a lottery pick capable of multiple TDs in the right situation. Bernard is the cash-game play, while Hill is a GPP option. ... WR A.J. Green will have his hands full this week; he has been supremely underwhelming, reaching value just once since Week 3. Avoid him. ... TE Tyler Eifert is an every-week play due to workload and red-zone reliance. St. Louis is only league-average at defending tight ends.
Prediction: Bengals 23, Rams 17
DFS MVP: Todd Gurley
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Line: Falcons -2 (opened at -2 1/2)
O/U: 45 1/2 (opened at 46)
Weather: Dome
Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater isn't a viable DFS option this week - or any other week for that matter. ... RB Adrian Peterson has 17 touchdowns in the 17 career games he has played following a sub-50-yard rushing performance. The Falcons have allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league, but Peterson is a different animal and should easily reach value based on volume. ... WR Stefon Diggs has followed three great games with three straight duds; he'll be focused on heavily by the Falcons, and is a GPP-only option. ... TE Kyle Rudolph is as unpredictable as they come; stay away. ... Falcons QB Matt Ryan has been one of the most disappointing players in the league this season - and a date with a formidable Minnesota pass defense likely won't help him shake his slump. Avoid him this week. ... RB Devonta Freeman was ruled out Friday, putting rookie Tevin Coleman in line for his third start of the season. The Vikings are one of five teams yet to allow a passing TD to a running back. Coleman is a risky value play, but he becomes an option due to the increased workload. ... WR Julio Jones is matchup proof; the only thing keeping him from being an every-format lock is Ryan's struggles. Roster him in cash games, but spend up for Hopkins if you're looking to choose between the two. ... No other member of the Atlanta pass attack is worth rostering.
Prediction: Vikings 24, Falcons 20
DFS MVP: Adrian Peterson
New York Giants at Washington Redskins, 1 p.m.
Line: Redskins +2 (opened at +1)
O/U: 48 (opened at 46 1/2)
Weather: Chance of rain, 48 F; NNE wind @ 7 mph
Giants QB Eli Manning has roasted the Redskins over their last three encounters, throwing for an average of 276 yards with nine touchdowns and just one interception. Manning is a great pick in all formats. ... Of the Giants running backs to trust in a GPP this week, Shane Vereen sits slightly ahead of Rashad Jennings. This game should feature plenty of passing. ... WR Odell Beckham Jr. is rolling, with 339 receiving yards and four TDs in his last three games. Washington isn't going to slow him down; consider him in all formats as an alternative to the pricier Hopkins. ... Manning spreads the rest of the targets around, making it tough to pinpoint a decent value receiver. Aim for Dwayne Harris, who racked up 82 yards last week and has three TDs in his last three games. ... The real Kirk Cousins sits somewhere between Week 10's four-TD showing and Week 11's dud; the Washington QB has a plus matchup against the Giants' reeling defense, but keep expectations in check. He's a GPP-only play. ... You simply can't trust the Washington running back corps, especially this week. ... WR DeSean Jackson scored a long TD last week and should see plenty of targets as the Redskins look to keep pace with Manning; he isn't quite in the cash-game conversation, but he does make for a potentially strong stack option with Cousins. ... Pierre Garcon has so little upside that he can't be trusted. ... TE Jordan Reed is another Cousins stack candidate; he posted a 6-96 line in the first meeting with the Giants and is a good bet to match that production Sunday.
Prediction: Giants 27, Redskins 24
DFS MVP: Eli Manning
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Line: Colts -3 (opened at -3)
O/U: 46 (opened at 46 1/2)
Weather: Dome
Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston strengthened his Offensive Rookie of the Year resume with five touchdown passes last week; don't expect that kind of ceiling this week, but trust him in all formats as a high-floor, medium-ceiling alternative. ... RB Doug Martin erupted for 235 rushing yards in Week 11, and should manhandle a Colts defense allowing the eighth-most points to running backs. Trust Martin everywhere. ... WR Mike Evans is no longer an automatic play thanks to the return of Vincent Jackson; he'll still see enough volume to sustain a high floor, but his ceiling shrinks with a likely matchup against Colts DB Vontae Davis. He's an iffy cash-game play. ... Jackson shouldn't be rostered; his upside just isn't there on a consistent basis. ... Colts QB Matt Hasselbeck has a decent floor, but he won't win you a tournament; fade him. ... RB Frank Gore may find himself conceding more work to Ahmad Bradshaw; neither is a strong play this week. ... WR T.Y. Hilton in three weeks under Hasselbeck: 7-67, 5-88, 2-21; he can't be trusted this week. ... Neither can Donte Moncrief, who has lines of 6-75, 1-3 and 5-41 with Hasselbeck under center. ... TE Coby Fleener would be a solid punt candidate were his price a little lower; as it stands, he can be left unowned.
Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Colts 16
DFS MVP: Doug Martin
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m.
Line: Chiefs -4 (opened at -6)
O/U: 41 1/2 (opened at 42)
Weather: Chance of rain, 37 F; NE wind @ 7 mph
The value tied to Bills QB Tyrod Taylor's rushing ability make him a middle-of-the-road option when he isn't running - and with just 10 rushes for 13 yards in his last two games, he's a fade candidate this week. ... RB LeSean McCoy will see all the volume he can handle, but his ceiling is slightly lower with a matchup against a formidable Kansas City run defense. That said, he's usable in all formats. ... WR Sammy Watkins has six receptions combined in the past two weeks, prompting him to not-so-subtly suggest he should get the ball more. The Bills' coaching staff agrees - but whether that happens this week is anyone's guess. As it stands, he's a GPP-only option. ... TE Charles Clay should be ignored against a Chiefs unit allowing the fewest points to tight ends. ... Chiefs QB Alex Smith is DFS poison. Run away. ... RB Spencer Ware becomes the third No. 1 running back in Kansas City, and should return value easily based on volume. His upside is unknown, but worth a flier as a cash-game punt or cost-saving tournament option. ... WR Jeremy Maclin has exactly three catches in four consecutive games; there's not much DFS value here, even with a home matchup against Buffalo. ... TE Travis Kelce is the best DFS option on either side; he should soak up the targets and provide a high floor for his price. Roster him anywhere.
Prediction: Chiefs 23, Bills 20
DFS MVP: Travis Kelce
Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Line: Titans +1 (opened at +2)
O/U: 45 (opened at 44)
Weather: Rain, 56 F; SSE wind @ 3 mph
Raiders QB Derek Carr saw his streak of four consecutive high-value games end abruptly in Week 11; he may scare off enough DFS players to be a strong contrarian option, but his ceiling may be limited thanks to a solid Titans pass defense and an early start on the East Coast. ... RB Latavius Murray has struggled in back-to-back weeks, and his role in the passing game has shrunk considerably. He's a GPP-only play, with volume sparing him a spot on the trash pile. ... WRs Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree have switched positions, with Crabtree the more dependable option and Cooper a speculative play with a lower floor and ceiling. Both should see plenty of work. ... Titans QB Marcus Mariota has had a tournament-winning performance twice already this season, and has a sensational matchup against a weak Raiders pass defense. Fire him up in all formats. ... RB Antonio Andrews will see his workload diminished further by rookie David Cobb; neither is a viable DFS play in this one. ... WR Kendall Wright returns to a favorable matchup - but he doesn't see the volume of a typical No. 1 and doesn't have a high enough ceiling to trust. He's worth a shot in a multi-entry GPP, but that's about it. ... WR Dorial Green-Beckham isn't seeing enough work to trust. ... TE Delanie Walker should be the star of the show, as he often is when Mariota is dealing. Walker should be rostered in all formats; he has as good a chance as anyone of finishing atop the tight end scoring ledger this week.
Prediction: Titans 24, Raiders 20
DFS MVP: Delanie Walker
San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m.
Line: Jaguars -4 1/2 (opened at -4)
O/U: 46 1/2 (opened at 46 1/2)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 73 F; NE wind @ 9 mph
Chargers QB Philip Rivers has disappointed in back-to-back weeks, and will struggle to reach tournament-caliber value in a cross-country road game. That said, his floor is high thanks to Jacksonville's underwhelming pass defense. ... RB Danny Woodhead is once again the backfield option of choice, he's had duds in two of his last three games, but his ceiling is worthy of tournament consideration. ... WR Stevie Johnson lacks Keenan Allen's ceiling, but will see enough work to be worth a cash-game play. ... TE Antonio Gates is not worth consideration given his extended slump and nagging injuries. ... Jaguars QB Blake Bortles has a favorable home matchup against a woeful Chargers defense; he's rosterable in all formats and should return big-time value relative to his salary. ... RB T.J. Yeldon won't have a better matchup all year, tasked with a No. 1 workload against a San Diego defense allowing a stunning 4.9 yards per carry. Yeldon should be in most of your cash-game lineups and some of your GPP rosters, as well. ... WRs Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns are both recommended plays this week; look to Robinson in cash games with his sky-high floor, while Hurns is a GPP lock due to his big-play ability. ... TE Julius Thomas had a TD last week, but he remains a distant No. 3 in targets and should be unowned.
Prediction: Jaguars 27, Chargers 17
DFS MVP: T.J. Yeldon
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Line: Jets -4 (opened at -4)
O/U: 43 (opened at 42 1/2)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 50 F; N wind @ 8 mph
For all the struggles Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill has had, he actually maintains one of the highest floors among mid-level quarterbacks; that said, this week's matchup is a difficult one. He should be faded. ... With rookie Jay Ajayi lurking, RB Lamar Miller is no longer guaranteed 20-plus touches - and the chances are good that he won't do much with the work he does get. Miller is a GPP-only play, and a risky one at that. ... WR Jarvis Landry will avoid a date on Revis Island, making him the strongest Miami play of the day; he'll see enough volume to reach value, though his ceiling isn't the highest. ... Rishard Matthews went 1-16 in his previous meeting with the Jets, and has just one TD since Week 3. Stay away. ... Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has a floor similar to that of Tannehill, and this matchup is better; he can be trusted in cash games as a QB punt. ... RB Chris Ivory has seen his touches drop two straight weeks; with Bilal Powell seeing more work, Ivory can no longer rely on heavy volume to reach value. He's a GPP-only play this week. ... WRs Brandon Marshall (6-foot-4) and Eric Decker (6-foot-3) should make life miserable for Miami's smallish secondary; Marshall is an every-format option, while Decker is a decent alternative with high TD potential.
Prediction: Jets 27, Dolphins 17
DFS MVP: Brandon Marshall