MLB Roundtable: 3 burning questions as spring training nears
Only four weeks remain until spring training opens - where is Max Scherzer going to end up?
Jonah Birenbaum: Chicago Cubs president Theo Epstein proclaimed after signing Jon Lester that “the future starts in 2015,” and the club’s aggressive offseason strategy (along with their payroll structure) suggests it will end up signing Scherzer, too. Despite decades of futility, the Cubs remain among the most profitable teams in baseball and could easily accommodate Scherzer - and his reported $200-million price tag - on a roster comprised largely of talented youngsters earning close to the league minimum.
Dan Toman: Scherzer's reported demands have narrowed his list of suitors to an exclusive group of teams, but perhaps no club matches up better than the Detroit Tigers. With piles of money committed to veteran players, the Tigers remain all-in in their efforts to win. Given Justin Verlander's struggles, David Price's impending free agency and their already-rejected $24-million-per-year offer to Scherzer, they will eventually cave and re-up with their ace.
Greg Warren: The St. Louis Cardinals could emerge as a dark horse for Scherzer’s services, but the righty would need to take a hometown discount (Scherzer's a St. Louisan) for a potential deal to be struck. Adding Scherzer in the short term would help the Cardinals maintain their status quo as top dogs in the National League Central and fend off the rising Pittsburgh Pirates and Cubs. The former Cy Young Award winner will likely command way more cash than John Mozeliak is willing to cough up, but stranger things have happened.
Have the Astros done enough this winter to secure their first winning season since 2008?
JB: Probably not. Jeff Luhnow deserves credit for both building a formidable bullpen and bolstering his lineup this winter, but there’s simply too much uncertainty on Houston’s roster to confidently predict a 12-win improvement. Though the Astros have cultivated a strong core of players, it’s unreasonable to expect Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh to outperform their peripherals for a second straight year; it’s unreasonable to expect Jose Altuve to post a .360 BABIP again; and it’s unreasonable to expect George Springer to replicate the offensive success he enjoyed last year despite striking out 33 percent of the time.
DT: Not yet. While Houston's offseason pickups pair nicely with a developing young core, 12 wins is a lot to ask for a team in a division with 2-3 playoff-caliber teams (and a healthy Texas Rangers club, too). Combine their tough schedule with an underwhelming pitching staff, and the Astros should aim for a more modest benchmark of 75 wins.
GW: I love the bullpen upgrades Luhnow made this offseason (Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek) and I think this team finishes a few games shy of the .500 mark in 2015 with its current roster. More moves could be on the way, however, following the acquisition of Evan Gattis. If Luhnow can move Dexter Fowler as part of a package for a solid starting pitcher, this team may have an outside shot at 80-plus wins. One thing’s for sure: the Astros should improve on their 70-win total from a year ago.
Do the Orioles need to find better replacements for Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz to repeat as AL East champions in 2015?
JB: Much of Baltimore’s success last season was due to the club’s ability to pile up runs, so it really seems like the Orioles were remiss not to pursue replacements for two of their best hitters from 2014. Rather than address their outfield through pricey free-agent acquisitions, they opted instead to rely on Steve Pearce and an Alejandro de Aza/Delmon Young platoon to compensate for the loss of Markakis and Cruz. However, Pearce had never received more than 188 plate appearances in a season before 2014, and the aforementioned platoon boasts little upside, so it’s tough to envision the Orioles replicating their offensive success from last season.
DT: The Orioles were smart not to re-sign Markakis and Cruz to a combined $100 million, but that doesn't mean they're better off for it this year. As noted above, the Orioles' strength last season was scoring runs, so it stands to reason they need to do better to replace the pair than just Young. Colby Rasmus is and absolutely should be on their radar, but he alone won't come close to replacing the combined offensive loss. Instead, Baltimore will be banking on a bounce-back effort from 2013 home run champ Chris Davis and good health from Manny Machado and Matt Wieters. Those three would help offset Baltimore's offseason losses, and keep the club in position to contend in a wide-open AL East.
GW: Call me crazy, but I believe the Orioles still have a legitimate shot at the AL East title in 2015. Yes, Markakis and Cruz will be missed, but a rebound year from Davis, a healthy Machado and a strong return from Wieters could help the O’s keep pace offensively in the division. Baltimore has one of the most underrated starting rotations in the bigs, and it could be bolstered at some point during the season, if and when top prospect Dylan Bundy bursts onto the scene.