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Squad Up Daily NHL Fantasy Dose: Toews won't need luck to continue against ARI

Geoff Burke / USA TODAY Sports

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Here is a look at the Squad Up daily NHL fantasy picture for Thursday, Feb. 23 (all advanced statistics courtesy of Corsica.Hockey and Natural Stat Trick and apply to 5v5 situations):

Dynamic Duos

  • LW Richard Panik (46K) & C Jonathan Toews (67K), Blackhawks (vs. Coyotes): Toews has compiled six goals and 14 points through eight games in February. He has tallied at least four shots on goal in all but three of those games, though his 21.4 shooting percentage is more than double his season rate. The Coyotes rank 29th in Corsi For percentage over each teams' past 10 road games at 42.91 percent.
  • LW James van Riemsdyk (54K) & C Tyler Bozak (42K), Maple Leafs (vs. Rangers): The Rangers have posted a CF% of just 47.59 through their past 10 games, though they've outscored their opponents 22-16 at 5v5. They went 7-2-1 during the stretch, but they'll meet a Maple Leafs team operating at a 52.46 possession rate. The Bozak line owns a team-best 62.18 rating.
  • C Calle Jarnkrok (32K) & RW James Neal (63K), Predators (vs. Avalanche): While Predators LW Filip Forsberg stole headlines with a hat trick in the team's most recent game, but it was actually the trio of Jarnkrok, Neal and RW Colin Wilson which led the team playing 25 percent of 5v5 minutes. The trio has highest Corsi rating of any active threesome on the team.

Goalie Breakdown

  • TARGET - Pekka Rinne (120K), Predators (vs. Avalanche): The Avalanche have averaged a moderate 53.48 shot attempts per 60 minutes since Feb. 1, but they still rank 24th in the league with just 7.22 scoring chances per 60. Rinne has allowed at least three goals in each of his past four starts, but he'll come with very low ownership ahead of Thursday's matchup.
  • BARGAIN - Thomas Greiss (76K), Islanders (at Canadiens): Montreal has averaged 55.90 shot attempts per 60 minutes over the past nine games, but is turning just 7.41 of those into scoring chances. The Islanders have held opponents to just 54.46 shot attempts per 60 over their last 11 outings.
  • FADE - Corey Crawford (123K), Blackhawks (vs. Coyotes): While Crawford has an outstanding chance of picking up the win bonus, the Coyotes have averaged just 48.49 shot attempts per 60 minutes over their past nine games. Crawford won't be able to make enough saves to fulfill his position-leading salary.
  • CONTRARIAN - Henrik Lundqvist (85K), Rangers (at Maple Leafs): The Maple Leafs' offense is highly dangerous, as noted above and by their league-best 13.03 scoring chances per 60 minutes since Feb. 1. Lundqvist has been remarkably better on the road this season, posting a .921 save percentage in 18 starts. He has made 30-plus saves in five of his past eight starts.

Bargain Plays

  • D Alex Goligoski (25K), Coyotes (at Blackhawks): Goligoski has recently been freed from having to carry the weight of Michael Stone as a defense partner at 5v5. He is now paired with the significantly better Connor Murphy. He operates on the second power-play unit against a Chicago team ranked near the bottom of the league in penalty-kill efficiency.
  • C Nick Schmaltz (25K), Blackhawks (vs. Coyotes): Owners not willing to pay the price of Toews' current hot streak can opt for his minimally-priced linemate. Schmaltz has two goals and five assists this month. While he doesn't shoot nearly as often as Toews, the two spend enough time together to rack up some secondary production.
  • LW Matthew Tkachuk (25K), Flames (at Lightning): Tkachuk has inexplicably fallen to the minimum salary, making him a clear target for bargain hunters. He is faced with a difficult matchup, but he enters on a three-game point streak with six SOG and five points. His ice time has dipped slightly, but he has been a part of the most-common 5v5 trio.

Top Fades

  • RW David Pastrnak (53K), Bruins (at Kings): There's no denying Pastrnak's goal-scoring prowess, but he doesn't provide reliable contributions in any other Squad Up scoring category. The Kings' defensive system is one of the best at shutting down opponents, capping Pastrnak's potential.
  • LW Johnny Gaudreau (59K), Flames (at Lightning): Gaudreau notched four assists his last time out, but he remains without a goal this month and has just four SOG over his past two outings. He has a tough road matchup against a Lightning team with the second-best CF rating since Feb. 1.
  • C Auston Matthews (67K), Maple Leafs (vs. Rangers): Matthews is tied with Toews as the highest-priced centers, despite having a much more difficult matchup. He has been a steady producer and his Corsi rating supports him, but owners should opt for Bozak's lower salary in a difficult matchup for both.

Contrarian Options

  • C Tyler Toffoli (52K), Kings (vs. Bruins): Toffoli is less popular than linemate C Anze Kopitar and owners have to choose between the two when lined up together. The Bruins will start backup G Anton Khudobin, shifting the odds heavily in L.A.'s favor.
  • LW Viktor Arvidsson (48K), Predators (vs. Avalanche): Like the case in Los Angeles, owners will need to choose between Arvidsson and LW Filip Forsberg, Thursday, as the two have been re-united with C Ryan Johansen. Opt for some salary savings and pair Arvidsson with the center.
  • D Drew Doughty (41K), Kings (vs. Bruins): Doughty doesn't have the offensive ceiling of other defensemen on Thursday's slate, but his matchup against a backup goaltender provides a boost. Owners can always rely on hits and blocked shots in a worst-case scenario.

(Photos courtesy Action Images)

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