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40 Fantasy Facts - NL Central Edition

David Kohl / USA TODAY Sports

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Looking for an edge in your fantasy baseball drafts? Here are 40 facts from the 2016 season involving players from the National League Central:

Chicago Cubs

  • In a year where everyone hit 20 home runs, 3B/OF Kris Bryant hit 39. When few hit anywhere close to .300, Bryant hit .292. He shaved his K-rate from 30.6 percent in 2015 to 22.0 in 2016. He won the MVP and is a potential top-five pick in fantasy drafts.
  • 1B Anthony Rizzo posted an almost identical slash line to Bryant with .292/.385/.544. He hit seven fewer home runs, but he also struck out less often. With similar outputs, Rizzo can still be had if you wind up with a late first-round pick or one early in the second round.
  • Because C/OF Kyle Schwarber played only two games in 2016, he retained the catcher eligibility (in Yahoo!) that made his value linger. He has lost this eligibility at other sites, so buyer beware. He still has only 278 plate appearances to his name, but he has hit 16 home runs.
  • While most were (rightly) ecstatic about New York Yankees rookie backstop Gary Sanchez running roughshod over opposing pitchers in 53 games, Cubs rookie C Willson Contreras put up solid numbers, too. He hit 12 home runs and slashed .282/.357/.488. Contreras will be taken much later in drafts, making him a wait option if you elect to forego the top choices.
  • Among qualified hitters, OF Jason Heyward had the highest soft-contact percentage in the majors at 27.1 percent. It was the worst such rate since his sophomore season, even though his line drive percentage (20.5) was decent. He has worked on his swing in the offseason to potentially offset his struggles.
  • As good as RHP Jake Arrieta's 2016 was, every statistical category was worse than 2015. From the random (wins-losses) to the skill-based stats, Arrieta went from amazing to very good. His walk-rate of 3.47 was especially concerning. He's still being drafted as a top-10 SP, but warning signs have appeared.
  • LHP Jon Lester may be a safer pick. He has thrown at least 200 innings in eight of his nine full seasons in MLB -- the lone outlier saw him pitch 191 2/3 innings. He went at least six innings in 26 of his 32 starts in 2016, never allowing more than three earned runs in any of those. He minimized his blow-ups, relegating them to five especially horrific outings.
  • Reliever Wade Davis takes over the closer role after Aroldis Chapman's free-agent departure. In between DL stretches, Davis was his usual reliable self for the Kansas City Royals. He posted a 1.87 ERA with a 9.76 K/9, inducing a 13.1 percent swinging-strike rate. His velocity dipped a bit, but time will tell if it was due to injury or the beginning of a decline.

Cincinnati Reds

  • Few have a batter's eye as keen as 1B Joey Votto. He posted a .434 OBP when being intentionally walked only 11 times in 677 plate appearances. He has also sustained an ISO above .220 over his last two seasons, potentially quelling doubts about declining skills.
  • SS Eugenio Suarez hit the bulk of his home runs before July, belting 14 long balls in the first three months of the season before finishing with seven more in the second half. The catch? He hit for a better average and hit 20 second-half doubles compared to five in the months prior.
  • OF Adam Duvall finished just outside the 10 most strikeout-prone batters with a K% of 27.0. None of the players with a worse K-rate walked less often than him, ether, leading to a .297 OBP. The power would be even more palpable if the contact was steadier.
  • A career part-timer to date, 2B Jose Peraza will get starter's reps after the trade of veteran 2B Brandon Phillips. Peraza's speed is considered his greatest asset, as he stole 21 bases in 72 games while batting .324. He was also caught stealing 10 times.
  • Speed demon OF Billy Hamilton played a bit more to his strengths by showcasing a 47.7 percent ground ball rate and reducing the amount of fly balls he hit in 2016. This led to his first OBP above .300 over a prolonged stretch and allowed him to steal 58 bases. If he stays healthy, where might the number reach?
  • The Reds' pitching staff was not great in 2016, but RHP Anthony DeSclafani was a bright spot. He went 9-5 with a 3.28 ERA, striking out close to eight batters per nine innings. Only twice did he fail to complete five innings. He was expected to be the team's opening day starter before being diagnosed with a strained UCL.
  • Long gestating pitching prospect Robert Stephenson finally cracked the big league roster in 2016. It could have been better. He hasn't improved his command, walking more than 4.5 batters per nine innings at both the MLB and Triple-A levels, contributing to a 6.08 ERA with the Reds and a 4.41 ERA with their minor league affiliate.
  • Converted from a starter's role, RHP Raisel Iglesias was able to incrementally increase his velocity on his trio of pitches, averaging 93 miles per hour on his fastball. Slated to stick out the season in the bullpen, regardless of the shifting role, those figures stand to increase.

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Is OF Ryan Braun an underrated fantasy asset? He hit 30 home runs, stole 16 bases, and hit .305 in 2016. This made him one of only 25 qualified batters to hit .300 or better. While his stretch between 2007 and 2012 was otherworldly, he wasn't too far off.
  • 2B/SS Jonathan Villar led the majors with 62 stolen bases -- Cincinnati's Hamilton being the next closest. It was also his first opportunity to play as a full-timer. He posted a respectable 11.6 percent walk-rate as well, leading to a .369 OBP. With 19 home runs, a mix of power and speed can be reasonably expected, though he'll be drafted much earlier in 2017.
  • Brewers top prospect SS Orlando Arcia underwhelmed in 55 games, batting only .219 while striking out 21.8 percent of the time. His speed, a trademark, has resulted in fewer stolen bases at each level in the minors since 2014.
  • IF/OF Hernan Perez set a personal best with 430 plate appearances, showcasing his skillset, stealing 34 bases and hitting 13 home runs. He walked in only 4.2 percent of his plate appearances, swinging at 53.8 percent of pitches.
  • OF Eric Thames spent the last three seasons playing baseball in Korea, where he slashed .348/.450/.720, hitting 124 home runs with 379 RBIs. He struggled to find consistency in MLB between the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners, but his power has appeal making him a sleeper candidate.
  • Despite being 31, RHP Junior Guerra still had rookie status in 2016. He went 9-3 with a 2.81 ERA over 121 2/3 innings before the plug was pulled. A journeyman who played between Mexico and Venezuela between minor league stints, he remains a bit of a mystery. He'll likely be an early streaming option worth holding if he doesn't turn out to be a fluke.
  • Perhaps the next best fantasy starter in Milwaukee's rotation was RHP Zach Davies. He's also the youngest. He pitched 163 1/3 innings in 2016, keeping his ERA (just) below 4.00 and posting pedestrian K and BB rates. His average fastball velocity was only 89.3 mph, though he mixed pitches at a greater rate than in his 2015 audition.
  • Reliever Neftali Feliz reignited his career in Pittsburgh with a 3.52 ERA and 61 strikeouts in 53 2/3 innings pitched. He could be poised to get the lion's share of save opportunities, a role he hasn't filled consistently since 2011.

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Despite playing in only 129 games, OF Starling Marte stole 47 bases and hit .311. His back injury put a damper on his speed, as he did attempt only two steals in seven September games, converting one. His power also took a hit despite increasing his fly ball percentage. His HR/FB rate was a career-low 8.4 percent.
  • OF Andrew McCutchen had the worst season of his career. He stole fewer than 10 bases for the first time, and was actually caught (7) more often than he was successful (6). Formerly a lock for 20 or more, he hasn't exceeded that marker since 2013.
  • OF Gregory Polanco may have hit only .258, barely improving over his .256 mark in 2015, but he made-up value with an improved ISO of .205 and 22 home runs. His HR/FB of 14.4 percent was well above his previous rate of 5.5.
  • 1B/OF Josh Bell walked more often than he struck out in his 45-game rookie showing. He walked 21 times compared to 19 strikeouts. Only 24 years old heading into 2017, this is admittedly a small sample size, but his minor league numbers showcased a steadily improving batter's eye.
  • C Francisco Cervelli hit one home run in 393 plate appearances, and managed only 16 total extra-base hits. He had the lowest ISO (.058) of all major league batters with at least 300 plate appearances.
  • What are you getting when you draft RHP Gerrit Cole? He slowly polished his work, gradually increasing his exposure until a dynamite 2015 where he threw 208 IP with a 2.60 ERA. He missed time due to injury and watched his K/9 and BB/9 go in the wrong direction last season.
  • Going slightly later is RHP Jameson Taillon. He debuted in 2016, pitching 104.0 innings. His command helped him stand out. Many pitching prospects struggle to find the strike zone, but Taillon managed a BB/9 of only 1.47. In Triple-A, he posted a BB/9 of 0.88. Fewer balls means fewer baserunners.
  • For a few years, it was speculated LHP Tony Watson would take over for RHP Mark Melancon as the team's closer. It happened once Melancon was traded, and Watson wasn't as sharp in 2016 seeing both his walk rate and ERA worsen. He's still a decent option in the later rounds, but his role isn't set in stone.

St. Louis Cardinals

  • You want a clockwork offensive performer in the middle rounds with multi-position eligibility? 1B/2B/3B Matt Carpenter is your man. While he hasn't turned into the perennial .300 hitter he once teased, he has never hit worse than .271 and has hit 20-plus home runs in consecutive seasons.
  • The Cardinals are not being targeted too heavily in fantasy, but OF Stephen Piscotty may simply continue to improve. He hit 22 home runs in his first full season, and his power has gradually developed. He's going later than some comparable names.
  • He may be old, but you can't go wrong with C Yadier Molina if you forego the position until late. The days of double-digit home runs are probably over, but a batting average close to .300 is believable. He swings the bat, striking out only 10.8 percent of the time in 2016 while walking in 6.7 percent of his plate appearances.
  • The latest member from the "where did they find this guy?" club is SS Aledmys Diaz. In his rookie season where he turned 26, he hit 17 home runs and finished with an even .300 batting average. He missed all of August before stumbling in September, batting only .216 in the last three weeks, though he hardly struck out during this time.
  • IF Jedd Gyorko showcased some serious pop with 30 home runs despite mostly playing in a reserve role. Despite this, he had only 40 total extra-base hits. He may have gotten a bit lucky with his 24.4 percent HR/FB rate.
  • RHP Adam Wainwright's 2016 looks like a terrible season for a pitcher of his reputation. The most concerning element was his loss of control, walking 2.67 batters per nine innings. It was his worst average since 2007, his first as a starter. He still labored to 198 2/3 innings, and it was his first year post-injury, but he is turning 36 years old this August.
  • RHP Carlos Martinez has shown consistency through his first two full seasons in the Cardinals rotation. He mixed in a curveball more in 2016 while also throwing his change-up more often. He has never been prone to the long ball, and allowed only 15 home runs in 195 1/3 innings last season.
  • When Trevor Rosenthal imploded, RHP Seung Hwan Oh, or the appropriately nicknamed "Final Boss," mowed down opponents with abandon in his first MLB season. He struck out 103 batters in 79 2/3 innings. He's a solid closer type if you miss out on the consensus top names.

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