Moving a core player the only way forward for Avalanche

Things have never been lower in the Mile High City.

Indeed, it's been a rocky season for the Colorado Avalanche. Following Thursday's 6-0 stomping by the Toronto Maple Leafs in front of their home fans, the Avalanche fell to 11-20-1 on the season, further cementing their place in the NHL's basement.

The loss comes less than two weeks after the Avs lost by more than a touchdown to the Montreal Canadiens, on the wrong end of an ugly 10-1 score. Things weren't much better against Toronto, where Colorado failed to tally on two separate 5-on-3 man advantages, leaving the Denver faithful - who have witnessed just four home wins on the season - wanting more.

It's been a nightmare month for the Avalanche, who have come away with just two wins through 11 games in December. That stretch has seen the Avs shutout three times, and out scored 42 to 18.

Those aren't the results expected from a roster that boasts the likes of Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Matt Duchene.

It's a roster that once included Paul Stastny, who left in free agency, and Ryan O'Reilly, who was sent to Buffalo for a package of players including Mikhail Grigorenko and Nikita Zadorov, neither of which has had much impact through two seasons in Denver.

But for all of their offensive options, the Avalanche can't seem to score. And they surely can't defend with so little depth on the back end.

That problem was further compounded following the loss of top blue-liner Erik Johnson, sidelined with a broken leg and not expected back on the ice until February. The Avalanche are 2-7 in his absence. That's left Tyson Barrie and veteran Francois Beauchemin to hold down the fort in the meantime. Really? 50 more games of this?

Things were supposed to get better once Patrick Roy left his coaching post. After all, it was supposedly his system and his style that was holding back the Avalanche. But new coach Jared Bednar, fresh off a Calder Cup win in the AHL, hasn't been swept up with offense of his own. Still, as a first-year on the job, he's safe for now.

And short of a world where the Avalanche can cut loose general manager Joe Sakic, the most prolific player in franchise history, that means change must come elsewhere.

Poor drafting

It starts at the draft table, where the Avalanche have scored with their higher picks. MacKinnon, Landeskog, and Duchene were all taken within the top three, and are now big pieces of the Colorado core. Meanwhile, the likes of Tyson Jost and Mikko Rantanen, both 10th overall picks in the past two drafts, have delivered impressive early returns.

But the team hasn't had nearly as much luck on the second day of the draft, where clubs make their picks in rounds two through seven. Go back a decade and the results just aren't there. Outside of the opening round, only five picks have seen 100 games in the NHL - Barrie, O'Reilly, Kevin Shattenkirk, who was flipped to the St. Louis Blues for Johnson, plus T.J. Galiardi, now in the KHL, and the ever-obscure Bradley Malone.

So what's the answer for the one-time dominant franchise that made the postseason every year in its first 10 after uprooting from Quebec, a stretch which included two Stanley Cups and four other trips to the Conference Finals?

It's a distant past for the Avalanche, winners of a single playoff series since 2007 and just a three-time postseason participant in that time.

Blueline repair

A team that once featured the likes of star blue-liners Rob Blake and Adam Foote, former teammates of Sakic, surely knows the value of defense. After all, it wins championships.

Owners of the league's worst goals against, the Avalanche allow 3.25 goals per game. And at minus-40, their goal differential is a full 10 points worse than the second-last club, and 20 worse than the third-lowest.

That's led to many long nights for goaltenders Calvin Pickard and Semyon Varlamov, who both own save percentages in the .900s, despite standing behind a porous defense. Varlamov, after all, is just two years removed as a Vezina nominee. Surely the 28-year-old's game hasn't fallen off that quickly.

Change is needed. Let the Edmonton Oilers serve as a model for the Avalanche. Like Colorado, Edmonton had collected years of scoring talent at the draft table, only to be continuously mired in losses and poor play. That ended last offseason, when the Oilers flipped former first-overall pick Taylor Hall to the New Jersey Devils for defenseman Adam Larsson, who has played a major role in reshaping Edmonton's defensive game.

Today, the Oilers sit fifth in the West, 18 points ahead of the Avalanche, and poised to make their first playoff appearance since 2006.

That is the path forward for the Avalanche, who have the opportunity to repair their ailing blueline, with just three defenders - Johnson, Barrie, and Beauchemin - signed through 2017-18. Depth is badly needed, and perhaps an entire second pairing all together.

That means one of MacKinnon, Landeskog, or Duchene should be on the outs. As captain, Landeskog is likely safe, and the same for MacKinnon, a dynamic talent and former Calder Trophy winner. That makes Duchene the likely candidate.

It's now up to Sakic to find the right trade partner, to not only strengthen his team's blue-line, but return the Avalanche to respectability and the glory days with which he is familiar.