Targeting teams: an underrated aspect of DFS lineup construction
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The thing about hockey is that nothing is ever guaranteed. It is easily the toughest sport to predict on a game-to-game basis, considering 2.71 was the league average for goals per game. Any one of the 18 skaters on a team could be accountable for those two-to-three goals per game.
When drafting your daily fantasy hockey lineup, it's very important to look at how team's match up against each other. It's clearly important to look at how individual players matchup, but the team aspect often get's overlooked.
Certain advanced stats are very helpful when attempting to identify team vs. team mismatches. Using Corsica.Hockey is an outstanding way to look at advanced team stats.
Possession numbers
It's very simple: if a team dominates the game's time of possession, they will likely win the game. It's important to roster players against teams who struggle to get the puck out of their own end. It's also crucial to draft players on teams with high possession numbers. The greater the difference between two teams' possession stats, the higher your player's likelihood of success is.
A simple way to gauge this is the stat Fenwick For Percentage (FF%), which represents the percentage of unblocked shots taken by one team during the game. If there was a game in which Team A took 60 shots and Team B took 40 shots, Team A's FF% would be 60 percent. Over the course of the season, teams that allow more shots than they take will be worth targeting in DFS.
For example, the Colorado Avalanche finished dead last with a FF% of 45.25 at 5v5. The Los Angeles Kings' 56.17 FF% at 5v5 was the best in the NHL. Whenever they matched up against each other, stacking the Kings, whether the first line or second line, was a great idea.
Other low possession teams from last season that can be targeted are Arizona, Vancouver and New Jersey. High possession teams in addition to L.A. include Nashville, Anaheim and San Jose.
Aside from Fenwick, or Corsi for that matter, DFSers can look at Offensive Zone Finish percentage (OZF%) and Defensive Zone Finish percentage (DZF%) to help determine possession mismatches.
Shooting Stats
Rather than looking at a given player's shooting percentage, shots on goal, or opponents shots on goal, DFSers should be looking at the the quality of shots that opponents are allowing. High-Danger Shots Against (HDSA) and Average Shot Distance Against (Avg.DISTA) are the best way to determine that.
Last season, the teams that had the shortest Avg.DISTA at 5v5 were, in order: the Islanders, Rangers, Hurricanes, Oilers, Blues, Canucks, Blackhawks, Flames, Jets and Stars.
The top 10 teams that allowed the most high-danger shots were, in order: the Rangers, Islanders, Blue Jackets, Canucks, Stars, Avalanche, Hurricanes, Blackhawks, Red Wings and Flames.
The Hurricanes are a classic example of how your standard shots on goal against can be an incomplete stat. Though they allowed the fifth-fewest shots against last season, they ranked third in Avg.DISTA and seventh in HDSA. Cam Ward wasn't tested often, but when he was, he was hung out to dry.
Scoring Chances
To reiterate, goals are incredibly difficult to project, especially on a game-to-game basis. Looking at the amount of scoring chances a team is generating is a better way to predict the amount of goals a team will score. If they have been generating a ton of chances in their recent games, they are bound to start filling the net.
Surprisingly, the Blue Jackets led the NHL in Scoring Chances For at 5v5, followed by the NHL's highest-scoring team, the Stars, and the Stanley Cup Champion Penguins. If any team has struggled to find twine lately but has still plenty of scoring chances, you can roster one of their scoring lines as a contrarian stack.
Teams to target who allow a lot of scoring chances include the Rangers, Islanders and the Hurricanes.
What the data tells us
Based on the aforementioned data, the Rangers are a team you should be targeting in daily fantasy. They allowed the most scoring chances, ranked first in HDSA and second in Avg.DISTA.
The presence of Henrik Lundqvist surely keeps the ownership of opposing players low, but he is now 34 and can't bail out his team forever. The defensemen in front of him aren't getting any younger, and they lost Keith Yandle in the offseason to boot. Expect some regression from the entire team.