Fantasy Baseball Roundtable - Outfield Edition

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TheScore put together a comprehensive series of rankings for each position. This week, our fantasy analysts will discuss the positions and several concerns heading into draft season.

Stud = Player expected to have a high floor (excluding the most obvious top names)
Dud = Player expected to drastically underperform ADP/or hurt a team
▲ = Player whose value will be on the rise from previous years
▼ = Player whose value will be on the decline from previous years

ADP Consensus can be found at FantasyPros.

Who are you most worried that you overrated in your OF rankings?

Jason Wilson: I don't even have the Texas Rangers' Nomar Mazara ranked that highly (45 among outfielders), but I'm wondering if I'm allowing his early success in 2016 to color my expectations a touch. There isn't even a guarantee he sticks at the big league level. I ranked him above Carlos Gomez, and that could be a mistake.

Andrew Potter: There's risk in ranking the Astros' George Springer seventh among outfielders. If he doesn't improve on the 29 HRs he hit in 2016, he'll be at the mercy of the situational hitting around him. I think that Houston will be a breakout offense this year, but anything short of that means that Springer is a highly-drafted player at a deep position with no obvious area of elite strength.

Esten McLaren: Ian Desmond is expected to move to first base for the Colorado Rockies. It'll be his second significant position change in as many years, after playing the outfield for the Rangers last year. His second half of last season was abysmal, as he hit just .237/.283/.347. Hit just seven of his 22 home runs and stole just six of his 21 bases in the second half.

Ken Conrad: I bought into the hype and ranked Trea Turner of the Washington Nationals seventh among outfielders. While that made me the most pessimistic of my colleagues, there's a chance he falls back to earth in a big way. His .388 BABIP from 2016 is a glaring red flag, as is the possible loss of his leadoff role to Adam Eaton.

Giancarlo Stanton was divisive in our rankings; explain your outlook.

Wilson: I listed Stanton in my top 10 OFs, so I'm obviously high on him. He's my second option for the first question, because I feel he burns me every year. But there is no one who offers the high-end power potential he does. The injuries hurt, but he has hit 54 home runs over his last 193 games - not even a season and a half. The upside is too tantalizing to ignore.

Potter: If you end up with Stanton on draft day, your best friend is the person willing to pay an exorbitant price to acquire him after his first hot stretch. We've seen too many injury-plagued seasons to continue devoting crucial draft picks to him. I'd take Stanton if he falls past the 40th pick because he's still a big name, but my goal would be to trade him before he gets hurt.

McLaren: Stanton is a prime value target to me, as he's likely to drop out of the first round for the first time in several seasons. He was still able to hit 27 home runs in each of the past two seasons, despite accumulating a total of just 788 plate appearances. It's promising he was able to return at the end of last season, and should enter 2017 at 100 percent.

Conrad: I ranked him 17th, lower than any of my colleagues. While Stanton's power threat is unmatched, he just hasn't been able to stay on the field. Over his seven seasons, he has played 145 or more games twice, while featuring in between 74 and 123 contests in each of the other five years. Health matters, and Stanton has shown that a stint or two on the DL is nearly inevitable.

What team's outfield situation is the most frustrating when approaching a draft in 2017?

Wilson: The Tampa Bay Rays have a long list of on-the-cusp bats in the outfield, and few (if any) will be locks for fantasy relevance outside of Kevin Kiermaier. Someone among Colby Rasmus, Corey Dickerson, Steven Souza or even Mallex Smith will emerge, but it's impossible to tell who. Re-signing DH Logan Morrison complicates things a bit further.

Potter: The Chicago Cubs are a pain to project because manager Joe Maddon's rational approach to batter splits and lineup optimization sacrifices counting stats for better averages. Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras could all see less than the maximum number of plate appearances, cutting into runs, RBIs and HR opportunities.

McLaren: It's the New York Mets. Michael Conforto is likely the second-best outfielder in the organization, behind only Yoenis Cespedes. Unfortunately for him, and fantasy owners, OFs Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce are equipped with contracts likely to keep them in the starting lineup. I'm fading both and taking a late-round flier on Conforto.

Conrad: The Los Angeles Dodgers will platoon across their outfield, so it's hard to have much faith in Joc Pederson or Yasiel Puig, both of whom have significant warts in their game. Andrew Toles impressed in a 48-game sample in 2016, but with Franklin Gutierrez, Andre Ethier and Trayce Thompson also in the mix, it's hard to say which will be relevant in mixed leagues.

Which mid-round pick will disappoint most?

Wilson: Adam Duvall's power is nice, and it made him a great sleeper in 2016 because he often went undrafted in mixed leagues - aided by the uncertainty in the Reds' OF situation. He struck out 27 per cent of the time, however, and I won't be surprised if his .241 batting average sinks like a stone.

Potter: The Royals' Lorenzo Cain was a top-50 draft pick in recent years, but uneven talent across Kansas City's lineup will mean that his production will continue to slip. The Royals still play in one of the AL's better pitcher's parks. And Cain has never appeared in more than 140 games in any season. If someone reaches within the top-100 picks, they'll be majorly disappointed.

McLaren: David Dahl hit .315/.359/.500 in 237 plate appearances and fared equally well on the road as at home against both lefties and righties. Still, he'll be competing with Gerardo Parra for playing time in left field (barring a trade of Carlos Gonzalez). 2016 was Parra's worst season in most meaningful statistics, but he's just one year into a three-year, $27.5-million deal.

Conrad: While Mark Trumbo's power is for real, chances are his fantasy owners will be expecting a repeat of last season's career-best 47 home runs. A total between 30 and 35 is more realistic, and Trumbo's middling lifetime batting average won't help many fantasy teams. He may be overdrafted relative to the amount of cheap power available in the later rounds.

(Photos courtesy: Action Images)