BMW Championship betting preview: Time for Tiger to make some noise

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What a week! Dustin Johnson came through for us for the second time since the restart. Hopefully, you were able to kick your feet up and enjoy the win as Johnson cruised to an 11-shot victory, because they are never that easy.

Next up is the BMW Championship. The 69-man field (Webb Simpson withdrew) will take on Olympia Fields North Course, located 30 miles south of Chicago, for the no-cut event. The limited field shortens the favorites' odds because they simply have fewer players to beat. So, don't be shocked when you see more golfers than usual priced below +2000.

The course

• Olympia Fields North Course, Olympia Fields, Illinois
• 7,366 yards, par 70
• Bentgrass greens
• Thick rough, narrow fairways place emphasis on accuracy
• Seven par 4s over 450 yards
• Expected to play firm and fast

Quotes from the grounds

"It doesn't really matter what you hit off the tee," Johnson said. "You've just got to make sure you're comfortable with what you're hitting and you're going to hit the fairway because the only way to attack this golf course is out of the fairway. The greens are firm and fast, got a lot of slope on them, so you really need to be able to control the golf ball coming into them."

"I think I'd rather be in the bunkers ... then be in the rough," Louis Oosthuizen said. "(The rough is) really thick and it's going to be difficult controlling the golf ball out of there, if you can get it to the green on some holes."

Past BMW Championship winners

2019: Justin Thomas (-25)
2018: Keegan Bradley (-20)
2017: Marc Leishman (-23)
2016: Dustin Johnson (-23)
2015: Jason Day (-22)
2014: Billy Horschel (-14)
2013: Zach Johnson (-16)

The last PGA Tour event held at Olympia Fields was the 2003 U.S. Open, which Jim Furyk won.

Betting on Tiger

Tiger Woods is priced at +3000 this week after a subpar finish last week in Boston. However, Woods showed encouraging signs with his final-round 66, where he gained 4.3 strokes through driving and approach.

Assuming Tiger found something Sunday and is able to roll in a few extra putts at Olympia Fields, his number is very interesting. He has to be heavily considered any time oddsmakers price him at +3000 or above.

It's also worth noting that Tiger's two victories following his 2018 Tour Championship win came exactly seven starts apart. This week's BMW Championship will be Woods' seventh start since his victory in Japan. Will the pattern continue?

Betting outlook: Green light. Not only because of the crazy aforementioned trend, but also because he showed real signs of life to end his week at The Northern Trust. Plus, how fun is it to bet on Tiger at a reasonable price?

The favorites

There are a few easy write-offs at the top of the betting board.

Yes, Johnson was remarkable last week, but there is no value taking him at +700. This is also easier to fade if you're still counting your Johnson winnings.

Jon Rahm at +800 is also easy to pass on. He's a great player who finished strong last week, but this price is way too short.

Bryson DeChambeau continues to underwhelm, leaving four interesting options but just two with value. No one would talk you out of backing either Justin Thomas or Xander Schauffele, as the course setup should resemble that of a major championship, but Rory McIlroy and Daniel Berger are the best options among the favorites.

McIlroy gained five strokes through approach shots last week and is nearly guaranteed to improve on his driving. If that ball-striking continues, taking a chance on him at +1600 - which is a big number for McIlroy - is worth the risk.

Berger has turned into a top-five machine with six of his last eight appearances resulting in a top-five finish. He continues to do everything exceptionally well and leads the tour in strokes gained: total since the restart. You could argue he should be closer to +1200, so take the few extra points and run.

The next tier

This range is littered with names that you can either buy high or low on. You will be paying a premium if you want to bet on Scottie Scheffler, Harris English, or Matthew Wolff. However, Patrick Cantlay and Patrick Reed are drifting further down the oddsboard.

Cantlay is finally worth considering after weeks of being priced in the low +2000 range. He's due to regain some form in the near future, and Olympia Fields offers a great chance for his elite ball-striking ability to shine.

Reed is the ultimate grinder who can thrive if conditions are tough and birdies are hard to come by this week.

Tyrrell Hatton is also a grinder, and he showed flashes of brilliance last week at TPC Boston. Hatton shot rounds of 67 and 63 but was unable to put it together for the entire tournament.

The long shots

This feels like a repetitive weekly statement, but it's tough to imagine a long-shot winner with the number of talented golfers playing close to their best at the top of the betting board.

However, Tony Finau (+4500) and Adam Scott (+5000) both have the ability to contend in a strong field at a difficult golf course. Finau is going to win one day, while Scott is playing his second consecutive week and should be rounding into form after a long layoff.

Cameron Smith (+15000) is also a big price that could be considered in the top-five or top-10 markets. He gained 7.4 strokes tee to green last week and has previously contended in big events.

Picks to win

Daniel Berger (+1800)

It's a steep price to pay for Berger, but that price is much easier to swallow when it's attached to someone who's consistently in contention. He's provided bettors with a chance to cash a winning ticket on Sunday in the majority of his recent starts, and he's showing no signs of stopping.

Tiger Woods (+3000)

Let's do it! Betting Tiger at +3000 to win for the 83rd time on the PGA Tour sounds like a fun way to enjoy the week in Chicago. He desperately wants to make it to East Lake and will need a top-tier finish to do so. Woods played great Sunday and finally saw some birdie putts drop. If he carries that momentum to Olympia Fields, look out.

Adam Scott (+5000)

Scott shouldn't be priced at +5000 at a course that benefits players who can hit it long and straight off the tee and are precise with their irons. If Olympia Fields is going to play firm and fast like players state it will, Scott should excel.