After exceeding all expectations under first-year head coach Patrick Roy two seasons ago, the Colorado Avalanche took several steps back in 2014-15, dropping from first all the way down to seventh in the Central Division standings.
Still, it's not all doom and gloom in Denver - the Avalanche did finish the season with a record of 39-31-12 and 90 points, well above the NHL's lesser teams.
The offseason was highlighted by the trade of talented, two-way center Ryan O'Reilly, whom the Avs sent to the Buffalo Sabres in exchange for a package built around Mikhail Grigorenko and Nikita Zadorov.
Both were once seen as high-end prospects for the Sabres, and while Grigorenko looks to regain the form he found in junior under then-Quebec City head coach Roy, Zadorov will need to move past issues that saw Buffalo suspend him twice.
The Avalanche also signed Carl Soderberg after trading for his rights in an attempt to fill the hole at center left by O'Reilly, while they gave Francois Beauchemin big money in an attempt to shore up the blue line.
That's all well and good, but this team will win or lose based on the development of its young core and projected top line - namely Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, and Nathan MacKinnon.
Projected Depth Chart
| LW | C | RW |
|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Landeskog | Matt Duchene | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Alex Tanguay | Carl Soderberg | Jarome Iginla |
| Blake Comeau | Mikhail Grigorenko | Dennis Everberg |
| Cody McLeod | John Mitchell | Marc-Andre Cliche |
| LD | RD |
|---|---|
| Francois Beauchemin | Erik Johnson |
| Brad Stuart | Tyson Barrie |
| Nikita Zadorov | Nathan Guenin |
| G |
|---|
| Semyon Varlamov |
| Reto Berra |
X-Factor
MacKinnon experienced the dreaded sophomore slump basically across the board last season, following up a Calder Trophy-worthy rookie campaign with numbers well off his first-year production.
| Season | GP | Goals | Assists | Points | Shots | Shooting% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | 82 | 24 | 39 | 63 | 241 | 10 |
| 2014-15 | 64 | 14 | 24 | 38 | 192 | 7.3 |
Yes, his season was cut short in early March by a broken foot, but even his offensive production per game was down in all categories. His only uptick was in shots per game, an improvement offset by a diminished shooting percentage.
All told, much of MacKinnon's regression can be attributed to bad luck. A four-goal, nine-point performance in ten World Championship games after recovering from the aforementioned injury bodes well for a bounce-back season.
And that's exactly what the Avalanche need if they have any chance of climbing back into playoff contention. If MacKinnon can play like a No. 1 overall draft pick in the vein of hometown counterpart Sidney Crosby, then Colorado will have a much better chance in the incredibly competitive Central Division.
Another down year, however, and the Avalanche will stay buried.
Player to Watch
Semyon Varlamov was in and out of the lineup in the first few months of the season due to recurring groin issues, keeping him from finding the form that earned him a nod as a Vezina Trophy finalist the year before. Able to appear in only 11 games in November and December, Varlamov posted a save percentage of .893, worse than his career low in a single season (.909 in 2009-10).
Apart from a small tweak of the groin in March, Varlamov was basically healthy in 2015, and it showed in his numbers. From Jan. 1 through the end of the season, he posted a record of 22-13-3 and a save percentage of .927, with the latter number putting him among the league's best at his position.
That's what the Avalanche will need Varlamov to be once again.
The additions of Beauchemin and Soderberg are intended to improve the team's overall defense, and if his groin holds up, Varlamov could return to the NHL's elite, carrying the Avs to victory more often than not.
