Recreating perfection: What does Connor McDavid need to achieve to meet expectations?
Barring an earth-shaking act of the hockey gods, Connor McDavid will be selected first overall by the Edmonton Oilers at the 2015 NHL Entry Draft on Friday, the start of what's expected to be a legendary career.
How legendary? Here's the benchmark:
Double Gold celebration and these three guys pic.twitter.com/c3E00DEd5U
— Scott Salmond (@SAMMYSAYS2010) June 10, 2015
Yes, McDavid is already being placed alongside Wayne Gretzky and Sidney Crosby, and is predicted to kick off his career in similar fashion.
Here's a look at how those two fared in their rookie seasons, and what McDavid needs to achieve as a first-year pro to meet expectations.
Wayne Gretzky
In 79 regular-season games during the 1979-80 season, Gretzky recorded 51 goals and 86 assists for the Oilers, tying for the league lead in scoring and winning his first of eight straight Hart Trophies as league MVP.
The Oilers also qualified for the playoffs, where he scored two goals and added an assist in three games
Gretzky was not, however, eligible for the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year, seeing as he already had a year of WHA experience under his belt.
To be fair, it was a different era, and Gretzky's career achievements are, and will likely remain, unparalleled.
Sidney Crosby
Crosby is a fairer comparison, but even he set the bar fairly high when he made his debut back in 2005-06.
The Pittsburgh Penguins superstar burst onto the scene with 39 goals and 63 assists, becoming the youngest player in league history to record 100 points in a season (18 years, 253 days).
Crosby's 102 points were eclipsed by Alex Ovechkin of the Washington Capitals, whose 52 goals and 106 points were deemed worthier of rookie of the year accolades.
The Penguins also finished last in the Eastern Conference.
Connor McDavid
So what should hockey fans reasonably expect out of McDavid in 2015-16?
Judging by his production with the OHL's Erie Otters this past season, and compared to Crosby's final season of QMJHL hockey with the Rimouski Oceanic, McDavid is poised to challenge Crosby's offensive proficiency.
| Player | GP | Goals | Assists | Points | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby | 62 | 66 | 102 | 168 | 2.7 |
| Connor McDavid | 47 | 44 | 76 | 120 | 2.55 |
Still, it may be too ambitious to expect 100-plus points and a scoring title out of McDavid, despite the fact this year's Art Ross winner was Jamie Benn of the Dallas Stars, who achieved the feat with 35 goals and 87 points, and Crosby himself only managed 84 points.
It's not, however, unreasonable to suggest that McDavid will score 30 goals and average a least a point per game as a rookie, with the expectation that he, unlike Crosby, will hold off his Calder rivals and be named the year's top rookie.
Further to his individual production and accolades, McDavid is being looked at as a savior of sorts in Edmonton: the franchise player destined to reenact Gretzky's glory days.
The franchise's first playoff appearance since 2006 would be a good place to start, and McDavid is good enough to help get the Oilers there in his first season.
In short, 30 goals, 80-85 points, a Calder Trophy, and a trip to the playoffs is what McDavid needs to achieve in order to meet expectations next season.