NFL Week 13 player props: QBs under the microscope
It was another frustrating Sunday for our supplemental wagers, as we went 4-6 thanks to Michael Carter's early injury in a game where he was destined for a decent workload. We couldn't have pegged Tua Tagovailoa's usage any better, predicting he wouldn't be needed for much of the second half. The problem was the Texans were all too willing to step aside for Dolphins receivers as Tagovailoa had almost 300 yards in the first half alone.
Justin Fields over 68.5 rushing yards
It's hard to argue with the Bears starting Fields when he doesn't have an injury designation going into this game, and without that, we have to assume he'll be his usual self - breaking contain and getting loose with his legs. With at least 12 carries and 82 yards in five of Chicago's last six games, we might be getting some value on the worry that Fields' shoulder will hamper his legs, which doesn't make a ton of sense.
Mike White over 22.5 pass completions
White has some of the best short-passing metrics in the league. Meanwhile, the Vikings are conceding a second-worst 69.3% opponent pass completion rate. The Vikings' pass defense invites the Jets to throw on them, but they might be so bad that White doesn't need to throw more than the 33.5 attempts he's lined for. A 23-for-31 day isn't out of the question.
Marcus Mariota longest rush over 13.5 yards
Mariota has had a long rush of more than 13.5 yards in six of 12 games this season - a 50-50 rate. However, the long runs have come against the top-tier defenses that the Falcons have played (Saints, Buccaneers, 49ers, Commanders, and Panthers twice). This suggests that a good pass rush leads Mariota to escape the pocket or keep on a read-option play more than he would against the passive defenses he's seen. The Steelers fall into the former category, with the sixth-fewest yards per rush against.
Gus Edwards over 55.5 rushing yards
Edwards returned from injury for a second time last week and was immediately trusted with 16 carries, though he only ran for 3.3 yards per carry (YPC). In his first return from injury this season, he had a 1.5 YPC jump between the first and second games back despite going from the Browns' shaky run defense to the Bucs' strong front. Edwards goes from the Jaguars (ninth in opponent YPC) to the Broncos (19th) this week.
Deshaun Watson under 236.5 passing yards
If you want to believe that Watson is in midseason form - up to the same speed as everyone else on the field - you're welcome to, but I'll need to see it first. The Browns have no choice but to play him, but they don't have to use him excessively in his first game since the 2020 season. Expect a lot of the ground game against the Texans' vulnerable run defense, resulting in a modest stat line for Watson.
Daniel Jones over 18.5 pass completions
Jones likes playing Washington. Even at the worst of times for the Giants, he's averaged 21.6 completions on 31.6 attempts for 230 yards per game against the Commanders, going 4-1 since joining. Each number would result in the over on his main prop totals for Sunday, but let's lock in on completions. Brian Daboll should have a plan for Jones to get the ball out quickly against Washington's front four, and those short passes add up.
D'Andre Swift over 50.5 rushing + receiving yards
The last time Swift was absent from the injury report was Week 1. He had 18 touches for 175 yards. Since then, it's been five carries here and a handful of receptions there. However, last week, Swift had a season-high eight targets despite a matchup with Bills' cover linebacker Matt Milano, and after a week-and-a-half off, he finally came off the injury report this week. A bigger role, explosive talent, and a lower number mean there's some value on Swift.
Chigoziem Okonkwo over 11.5 total receiving yards
Okonkwo's first five games this season: five receptions, eight targets, 52 yards.
His four games since: six receptions, 12 targets, 155 yards.
The explosively athletic tight end had a season high in targets last week, and "only" had 35 yards - his lowest total in those last four games. Enough said.
Trent Sherfield over 22.5 receiving yards
After cashing a ticket with Sherfield three weeks ago, I wish I had a good reason why I wasn't back on the Dolphins' third receiver last week, but he comes into this contest against San Francisco with four straight games of over 22.5 receiving yards. In three of those, he topped this total on one catch.
Patrick Mahomes under 308.5 passing yards
In two matchups last season, Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo made the adjustments to slow the Chiefs' offense, holding them to three points in each second half. That resulted in Patrick Mahomes throwing for almost identical stat lines of 26-for-35 for 259 yards and 26-for-39 for 275 yards despite hot starts. This season, the Chiefs have modified their offense to be OK with that modest production by improving their run game, which might play right into Cincinnati's hands.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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