Bengals-Chiefs game props: Following a specific script
In our AFC Championship Game preview, we detailed why the Bengals' run will culminate with a task too difficult for them to overcome. If the premise of the game handicap is a relatively convincing Chiefs win, then we'll look for game props to support that thesis and find plus-money plays that could lift our day to championship levels of profitability.
Both teams to score 20+ points: No (+140)
During the regular season, the Chiefs held their opponents to under 20 points eight times. While those opponents weren't necessarily offensive juggernauts, the Bengals' total here is lined at 22.5 (-105), which means you're selling the landing points of 20, 21, and the unlikely 22 for 45 cents per dollar.
Meanwhile, no matter how remote you may think it is, there's still a non-zero chance that the Chiefs don't crack 20 points. They've failed to hit that mark thrice this season. By the way, for all the excitement over their win last week, the Bengals scored 19 points in Tennessee.
Last team to score: Bengals (+110)
A better than even odds payout is key here since, in theory, a late Bengals score might push them over the 20-point mark. But at least we'd win one of our two bets to stay in the black. If Kansas City is going to win this game comfortably as we've hypothesized, then the game script will see Joe Burrow desperately trying to lead the Bengals back. Patrick Mahomes will be more interested in bleeding the clock than scoring.
Team to score first field goal: Neither (+2500)
Here's a fun, low-investment long shot that might lose on the first drive!
We can frame this in a variety of ways depending on the sportsbook, but it's essentially betting that there won't be a field goal in the game. Unlikely, but that's why we're getting 25-1 odds.
In the first meeting between the Chiefs and Bengals, the game started 28-14 for Kansas City. If either team takes a multi-touchdown lead into the second half in this game, we may see the coaches eschew field-goal attempts, finding themselves in a touchdown-for-touchdown game.
Both Harrison Butker and Evan McPherson are so good that, if given an attempt, they'll almost definitely make it. But if the game script means that the prudent decision is to go for it on fourth down when in field-goal range, they may not get a chance outside of PATs.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.