NFL Week 1 underdog plays: Jags to stun Chiefs, Pats on upset watch
Justin Berl / Getty Images Sport / Getty

You're sitting in your friend's basement watching football on Sunday, and the room erupts when Jacksonville Jaguars kicker Josh Lambo drills a game-winning field goal as time expires to beat the Kansas City Chiefs.

Everyone's caught with their jaws on the floor and losing tickets in their hands, while Mr. Know-It-All in the back shouts, "I told you so!"

Who do you want to be?

Deep down, we all want to be Mr. Know-It-All. So, here's your guide to calling Week 1's upsets, and impressing your friends in the process:

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars

Line: Chiefs -3

When the Super Bowl favorite is laying a field goal against a team that won five games last season, you take it, right? Not so fast (Lee Corso voice). This line opened at -4.5 and has dropped all the way down to -3 even with money pouring in on the Chiefs. The public love Kansas City this week, but the books obviously don't agree.

The Jaguars are just a year removed from being on the brink of a Super Bowl berth despite being haunted by bad quarterback play. Having finally seen enough of Blake Bortles, they went out and signed 2018 Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles, reuniting him with new offensive coordinator John DeFilippo. With competent quarterback play - and that's all Foles needs to produce - DeFilippo should be able to ignite an offense that averaged 15.3 points per game last season (only Arizona scored fewer). Armed with an underrated group of skill position players, DeFilippo should be able to get the best out of Foles and this offense, as he did with the quarterback in Philadelphia. A date with a paltry Chiefs secondary that ranked 31st against the pass last season is a good place to start.

Kansas City allowed an average of 34.25 points on the road last season, and as good as the offense is, that's a lot of points to put up against a Jags defense that ranked second against the pass last season, and first the year prior. In the meeting between these teams last season, Patrick Mahomes was intercepted twice by the Jags' secondary at Arrowhead and managed just 313 passing yards. It was also the only game all season in which he failed to throw a touchdown pass.

Pick: Jaguars +3, Jaguars ML (+155)

James Gilbert / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers

Line: Chargers -6.5

Jacoby Brissett might not be Andrew Luck, but people are acting as though the Colts have a backup defensive lineman under center this week. This line took a massive leap from -3 to -7 following Luck's retirement, but has since dropped to -6.5 with sharp money backing the Colts - and rightfully so.

The Colts are a well-rounded team that should not be written off just because of the quarterback change. Indy still has a balanced offense that should run the ball well behind one of the league's best offensive lines, and a top-10 defense that will be even better this season following the additions of draft picks Rock Ya-Sin and Ben Banogu, and free-agent signing Justin Houston.

Indy is way too good to be getting this many points against a Chargers team that, let's not forget, will be without Melvin Gordon, Derwin James, and Russell Okung. The Bolts were 2-6 ATS as home favorites last season, with their only covers coming against Arizona and Oakland. Give me the points, please.

Pick: Colts +6.5, Colts ML +230

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

Line: Patriots -5.5

There are few teams the public loves more than the Patriots. Despite bets flooding in on the Super Bowl champs, the line has shifted from a -6.5 open down to -5.5, and even at -5 in some spots. Books are expecting a big liability on the Pats this week, as the betting split should be even more lopsided by kickoff. There's nothing more predictive in betting than people chasing their Sunday losses with the prime-time favorite. Don't fall into the trap this week.

Ask anyone in the Steelers organization how excited they are to get this season underway, and you'll probably see a massive smile creep onto their face. The Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown drama is behind them, and they're a better team without those distractions. Ben Roethlisberger's toughness, James Conner's fighting spirit, and Juju Smith-Schuster's infectious personality define this team now. Pittsburgh can score with just about anyone, and an already underrated defense will be that much better after trading up to draft Michigan linebacker Devin Bush 10th overall in April. He's my pick for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Bill Belichick has been known to use September to evaluate his roster, and his offense has been hit by a couple of injuries. New England will struggle to move the ball here, and the line is more about public perception than the actual gap between these two teams.

Pick: Steelers +5.5

Alex is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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NFL Week 1 underdog plays: Jags to stun Chiefs, Pats on upset watch
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