CFB Week 1: Best bets for Labor Day Weekend

To celebrate Week 1 in the biggest way possible, let's waste no time deploying a loaded 10-play card.

Fresno State @ Purdue (+3.5, 47.5)

We like infrastructure early in the college season. While there's been some turnover at Fresno, particularly at quarterback, head coach Jeff Tedford has all the experience in a matchup with Purdue first-timer Ryan Walters. And the Boilermakers are without Aidan O'Connell for the first time in several years. The line has tumbled from around a touchdown to around a field goal. Hopefully, that won't cost us when the Bulldogs walk into West Lafayette and win outright against a team returning just four defensive starters and adjusting to life after O'Connell and former coach Jeff Brohm.

Pick: Fresno State (+3.5)

Utah State @ Iowa (-24, 43.5)

This is something of a funny spread since Iowa offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz has contract clauses incentivizing him to get the Hawkeyes to 25 points per game, especially since Utah State might not score in this game.

While Michigan transfer Cade McNamara may not be ready to be under center Saturday, anyone can just hand the ball off and watch the Iowa offensive lineman dominate the Aggies. Throw in the seemingly usual non-offensive touchdown for the Hawkeyes, and an Iowa blowout is in the cards.

Pick: Iowa (-24)

Colorado @ No. 17 TCU (-20.5, 63.5)

Speaking of blowouts at the line of scrimmage, TCU still has road graders in the trenches despite losing all the familiar names from last season's CFP title game run. For all the roster moves since he took over Colorado, Deion Sanders doesn't have that kind of power up front. The Horned Frogs won't have any misgivings about running up the score in this one after being blown out by Georgia last season.

Pick: TCU (-20.5)

Boise State @ No. 10 Washington (-14, 58.5)

Whoa. Another big favorite.

We've got big expectations for Washington. The Huskies are a ready-made product, particularly on offense with Michael Penix getting a chance to take on a team without much in the way of defensive talent. Boise State won't see anything like Washington's Heisman candidate this season. On defense, look for the Huskies to keep Taylen Green in the pocket and close in before he can get loose enough to cause problems in Seattle.

Pick: Washington (-14)

California @ North Texas (+6.5, 53.5)

This line has passed from +7.5 through the key number of +7. However, we'll still consider the Mean Green a best bet since we teased that North Texas is a live underdog in our Pac-12 betting preview, especially since we can pay just an extra 10 cents for +7.

Sam Jackson is Cal's starter, but don't expect him to be quoting "Ezekiel 25:17" before taking out North Texas. Plus, the home underdog might have the better offense with a more experienced dual-threat quarterback in Chandler Rogers.

Pick: North Texas (+7 at -120)

Washington State @ Colorado State (+10.5 56.5)

This line opened at +14, but I'm not all that surprised it's come down since my ratings have it more like +9. Colorado State is a dark horse in the Mountain West, so we come into this season thinking the team is undervalued. Cam Ward and Washington State will cause problems as an underdog in the Pac-12 this season, but going to elevation in Week 1 against a sneaky-good team is an awkward start.

Pick: Colorado State (+10.5)

No. 21 North Carolina vs. South Carolina (+2.5, 64.5)

Even with a relatively soft schedule for its conference, I have a projected 8.5-win ACC team as closer to a touchdown favorite on a neutral field over an SEC squad projected to win six games. While this is mostly a numbers play, I'm still not a buyer of Spencer Rattler. I'll go to battle with Drake Maye until I'm convinced that's a bad idea.

Pick: North Carolina (-2.5)

South Alabama @ No. 24 Tulane (-6.5, 51.5)

Tulane's 2022 season was enjoyable, but we're predicting that the top of the Sun Belt this season might have some of that "New Year's Six" fun. South Alabama will battle Troy for that title, but the Jaguars might get some attention with a win in New Orleans on Sunday over a team that'll be missing Tyjae Spears.

Pick: South Alabama (+7 at -120)

Sam Houston State @ BYU (+19.5, 46.5)

Sure, Jacksonville State was gifted a win by UTEP in its FBS debut, but I'm interested in fellow promoted program Sam Houston State. The Bearkats redshirted their best players last year in preparation for joining college football's highest level this season. That means BYU doesn't really know what to expect, but we'll guess the Cougars are in for a battle.

Pick: Sam Houston State (+19.5)

No. 5 LSU vs. No. 8 Florida State (+2.5, 56.5)

We have to include the only ranked-on-ranked matchup this weekend. This game should probably be close to pick'em with LSU missing suspended defensive lineman Maason Smith. That puts more focus on Harold Perkins, which makes life a little easier for Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis. Meanwhile, Mike Norvell's defensive recruiting classes are expected to really shine through with a crazy-deep front seven that'll rattle Jayden Daniels just enough to give FSU the edge.

Pick: Florida State (+2.5)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.