Pac-12 season betting preview: 1 last ride out west

Well, it was a good run.

All that's left of the Pac-12 appears to be that one sad sentence, resolved to the fact that horrendous management at the very top of arguably the most storied college sports conference has led everyone outside of Stanford, California, Oregon State, and Washington State to jump ship to the Big Ten or Big 12 after this season.

Considering it only got around to having a conference championship game in 2011, it's hard to say that there's some special honor in winning what appears to be the last Pac-12 football title as we know it, but if we can find a winning future ticket, it'll have a special place in our hearts.

Pac-12 championship odds

Utah's won two straight Pac-12 championships and brings back its star quarterback, Cam Rising. However, the Utes are the fourth choice on the oddsboard because the timing of Rising's return from the ACL tear he suffered in the Rose Bowl last year is uncertain. Last we heard, he was still "limited" in practice.

Unsurprisingly, USC - in Year 2 of the Lincoln Riley-Caleb Williams dynamic duo - is the favorite to win the conference. The Trojans spent the offseason adding new pieces to a defense that was unspeakably bad last year, so much so that a Heisman season from Williams (+600 to repeat) was without a conference or bowl trophy due to the USC defense allowing 47 points and 46 points, respectively, in those games.

Pac-12 team ratings

Using regular-season win totals and how the strength of the conference affects the schedule, Matt Russell, theScore's lead betting analyst, has estimated how the betting market rates each team on a national level. Using a rating system allows you to project point spreads and track any change in how the market has reacted to recent games.

Odds via theScore Bet

Rising's uncertainty has manifested itself in the Utes' rating and the line for their Week 1 Thursday night showdown with Florida. We have a stable rating of 55/100 on the Gators, but we've watched the line for that game toggle between Utah -9.5 and Utah -7. With a win total of 8.5 and a good strength of schedule, Utah should have a rating of around 70, which would make it -13.5 at home to Florida. When the line was -9.5, that was an in-between number, waiting on Rising's status. Now at Utah -7, that suggests the Utes are more of a 60/100, and hopes are low that Rising will be ready for the high-profile opener.

Since the defending conference champions are featured in many of the lookahead "Game of the Year" lines in the Pac-12, uncertainty about when Rising will be 100% throws a wrench in looking for value in those markets. For example, if Rising is still out for UCLA's visit on Sept. 3, suddenly, the Bruins may be favored in Salt Lake City. That would make UCLA a viable contender at +1100.

It took us this long to mention Colorado, which surely infuriates "Coach Prime," as we wonder how Deion Sanders feels about the Buffaloes' win total of 3.5 and a rating that makes them three-touchdown underdogs in Week 1 to TCU.

Best bets

theScore betting writer Sam Oshtry looked at regular-season win totals earlier this summer. Here are his two best bets:

Let's look at some additional wagers worth considering for the Pac-12 this season.

California: Under 5.5 wins (-150)

If you're into plus-money plays, may I direct you to North Texas - Cal's Week 1 opponent. There'll be some value in the Mean Green moneyline. Given that we don't think that's a lock victory for the Bears, their season win total is probably too high.

The Bears should be favored in just three other games this season. A game with Auburn is followed by a visit from Idaho, which seems easy until you realize the Vandals are a top-25 FCS team.

In conference, the Bears should have the edge when Arizona State comes to Berkeley, but the Sun Devils seem like a highly volatile outfit, capable of surprising teams better than Cal. The next-best chance for victory comes in the form of "The Big Game," but even a win over Stanford would have to be the Bears' sixth.

TCU transfer quarterback Sam Jackson brings exciting athleticism to Berkeley, but he better not be "Mr. Glass." Even if he can stay healthy, we'll fade the idea that he'll be the difference in California going from four to six wins since the Bears will need to beat all four aforementioned teams plus two upsets to go over 5.5 victories.

Oct. 14: USC @ Notre Dame (-1)

This line is fair right now, but it'll be interesting to see if it flips to USC as the favorite since the Trojans should probably go into South Bend undefeated. However, what if Sam Hartman and the Irish knock off Ohio State as short home 'dogs a few weeks earlier? Maybe securing -1 on the Irish isn't such a bad idea after all?

Nov. 4: Washington @ USC (-6)

This line is too short, but Washington has the schedule to also set up a late-season undefeated clash. The biggest hurdle is a home game against Oregon, but an 8-0 Huskies squad might be overvalued, dropping the line. However, since it's already under a touchdown, why not take the Trojans in Washington's toughest road matchup to date?

Nov. 11: USC @ Oregon (-2)

If we know anything about the Pac-12, it's that it can't have nice things - on the field and off. Ironically, a year before it disbands, this might be the best and deepest the league has been in decades. Of course, that means that an undefeated USC squad, off wins over Notre Dame, Utah, and Washington, may be ripe for a loss at Oregon. If the Trojans have been previously vanquished, you likely won't get the Ducks under a field goal in November, so bank that ticket now.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.