College basketball round-robin ML parlay: Tuesday 'dogs to bark

The Super Bowl has come and gone, and we're sitting around with flush accounts after a successful NFL betting season. Part of the reason we've got a little extra to play around with is thanks to our weekly gambit, where we took our five favorite underdogs and used them on the moneyline, hoping to strike it big. Going 5/5 and 4/5 gave us a big boost, while a handful of 3/5 outings made up for any chalky weeks.

Now college basketball betting volume picks up with a month to go before the NCAA Tournament, and we'll apply the same concept to the biggest nights in the sport. With 36 games scheduled on a Tuesday night, there has to be at least a handful of underdogs who come out on top.

How it works

When there's a big slate of games, and we've got a handful of bets, including numerous underdogs, it's worth a shot to go for a big payout for a fraction of our weekly outlay. We parlay five underdogs together in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we're going to use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for 0.1 units.

If three of five teams pull off the upset, you'll at least double your money. If four teams win, you'll connect on four separate parlays. If all five teams win, then we're diving into a pool of gold coins like a young Scrooge McDuck.

Who to play

Cincinnati +135

Let's start with a purely numbers play. I actually make Cincinnati a small favorite in this game, and recent market history would suggest that Memphis should be no more than a 1-point favorite. That said, Memphis is getting a ton of credit for five straight wins, including Saturday at Houston as 10-point underdogs. The Tigers have four straight convincing covers, and that's why they're modest road favorites.

Because of the postponement of this matchup a couple of weeks ago, the Bearcats have played just twice at home since Jan. 12, including a blowout loss to Houston in their last appearance at Fifth Third Arena. They'll have their best for a game against another longtime American Athletic Conference rival.

South Carolina +165

This one is less of a numbers play and more of a "why not fade Ole Miss as a favorite" play. You already know that Frank Martin's group isn't going to be the most talented on the court, but they'll be a well-coached and high-effort squad. South Carolina won at Georgia on Saturday and has shown it's better than the back half of the SEC, with a 5-0 record against the Bulldogs, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M. Three of those wins came on the road, too.

At 3-9 in the conference, Ole Miss falls into the category of the SEC's back half. The Rebels are worth backing as a big underdog against the middle of the conference. But at +6.61 in KenPom's efficiency metric, compared to South Carolina's +6.92, they're not better than the Gamecocks.

Providence +170

Villanova survived Seton Hall on Saturday and a tough trip to St. John's last week. Marquette's the only team to beat the Wildcats in 2022, but there's a good chance that ends with Tuesday's trip to Providence.

The Friars have the 21-2 record and the top 10 ranking, but their metrics rightly make them a decent home underdog. However, ask Ed Cooley or anyone on his team if they care what the metrics say, with their only challenger to a Big East regular-season title coming to town.

Fordham +325

The premise of this college hoops lottery ticket is low investment/high payout. So we'll need some bigger underdogs on our card. I'll try not to get too excited about Fordham covering against Davidson, Dayton, and Rhode Island, plus a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven. However, it shows that Fordham has been mostly undervalued, even if wins have been tough to come by.

VCU's 5-1 road conference record is daunting here, but at better than +300, it's worth a shot that we catch them in a sleepy spot in the Bronx against a team that can compete.

Missouri +265

At 4-7 in the conference, Missouri's season has been more about "close, but not quite." The Tigers have a three-point loss to Texas A&M and one-point losses to Auburn and Florida, all at home. In their last three games, they have two wins and a loss that saw them with a lead inside of five minutes to go at Vanderbilt.

Arkansas had a nine-game winning streak snapped by a point in Alabama on Saturday when a comeback fell short. With five more Quad 1 games left after their trip to Columbia, how locked in will the Razorbacks be for a Tigers team that's still searching for a big home win? With a moneyline too good to pass up, I'll take Mizzou to break through and hope for the best.

Here are how the odds look:

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.