NFL Week 11 round-robin moneyline parlay: Big swings before a short week
We put another deposit into our Scrooge McDuck-inspired doubloon silo last week, but it could have been a Brinks-level drop-off. The Lions' kicker - who apparently joined the team after winning some sort of raffle - missed an extra point and had history's worst game-winning attempt, so a tie in Pittsburgh left us wanting. Meanwhile, the Saints were a two-point conversion shy of potential overtime, so we had to settle for 3-1-1 (27-22-1 on the season) and five of our eleven bets winning for a decent profit.
How this works
We're parlaying five underdogs together in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we're going to use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. If three clubs pull off the upset like in Week 8 and Week 10, you'll likely double your money. If four teams win, as they did in Week 3, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five sides win, as they did in Week 1, then it's back into the pool, swimming in gold doubloons like heirs to the McDuck fortune.
Who to play
Three factors make this our first Thursday night mention:
- With so many small underdogs this week, their inclusion in this bet doesn't really accomplish its purpose as a low-investment Hail Mary lottery ticket for those wild weekends of upsets.
- The Falcons are unattractive for bettors here - as unattractive as the Dolphins were last week, by the way. But more importantly, the point spread and attached moneyline are out of control, creating a ton of value on the home underdog. +240 is too juicy to pass up as part of a low-investment bet.
- Between the last win and next week's schedule not providing anything in the way of large underdogs, we might as well take all the shots we can this week.
This would qualify as "all the shots."
We spent the campaign's first half lamenting the Titans defense, but it's time to worry about their offense. For the last two games, even in victory, Tennessee's offense has been problematic.
|GAME||YARDS PER PASS ATT.||YARDS PER RUSH|
The rushing numbers are alarming as they've obviously taken a massive hit without Derrick Henry, and the passing game isn't making up for it. With a low-octane offense relying on Ryan Tannehill, the door opens for any team to beat the Titans with a little turnover luck.
The Texans turned the ball over four times before their bye while getting five takeaways of their own in a loss at Miami. Giving Tyrod Taylor two more weeks to get healthier and more comfortable may lead to better security, as he's historically clean with the ball. The defense is still awful, but at least they have limited threats to worry about with Tennessee right now.
Washington Football Team +160
So, Cam Newton is awesome again? After two plays last Sunday? Despite being on the couch all year? The NFL is just that easy, I guess?
Maybe Newton brings the narrative-depicted spark to the Panthers, and Carolina is clearly capable of winning this contest regardless of who plays at quarterback, but watching this line push through -3 to -3.5 and the moneyline inflate with it is a bit much. A classic value play here with Washington.
One of the best games of last year's playoffs came during the Wild Card weekend opener, with a back and forth affair in Buffalo that saw the Colts take an early lead and eventually cover +6.5 in a close loss.
Eleven months later, the line for this matchup is Bills -7, but what has changed? Is Buffalo better this season? The club hasn't yet shown that in a series of games against the league's junior varsity.
Is Indianapolis better than last year? Despite the sketchy second half against the Jaguars last week, I'd say the answer to that is yes. Carson Wentz might be a younger version of Philip Rivers, but the offensive weapons around him are coming into their own. Jonathan Taylor and Micheal Pittman are taking a step forward, making the Colts' top-end potential higher than it was last season, so we'll include them here.
The 49ers scored us our victory last Monday in the RR MLP, but we're soullessly selling on our conquering heroes a week later. It's the nature of the business. Loyalties will get your bankroll killed.
Our Upset of the Week further explains this handicap. But for those uninterested in another click, what if (still just nine games into his tenure) the team is actually improving with the new historically successful head coach - despite all the bluster and mockery surrounding Urban Meyer?
Here's how the odds shake down this week:
Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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