NFL Week 8 round-robin moneyline parlay: Anything is possible
We're starting to see a theme here. While two out of five ain't bad, it doesn't get us back into the doubloon silo we were at the start of the season, even if the sweat alone is worth the -1.1 units per week.
Whether it's overtime or a late missed field goal, we've certainly been on the right track each week in a season where underdog winners are hard to come by. Four out of our five plays covered last week, a consistent theme that's been our silver lining.
How it works
We parlay five underdogs together in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we're going to use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. If three teams pull off the upset, you'll likely double your money. If four teams win, as they did in Week 3, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, like they did in Week 1, then it's back into the pool, swimming in gold doubloons like heirs to the McDuck fortune.
Who to play
A hearty congratulations to the Atlanta Falcons for their back-to-back wins. We're collectively impressed with victories over the *check notes* Jets and Dolphins. Now they're back to three-point favorites over a team they aren't better than.
Sam Darnold's stock may somehow be at an all-time low, but the Falcons' defense has made Tua Tagovailoa and Zach Wilson look like All-Pros in those two wins. While Christian McCaffrey isn't ready to return, the Panthers' defense gets a jolt with Shaq Thompson back, plus Matt Rhule is hopeful Stephon Gilmore will make his Carolina debut.
Even with 1.5 points for home-field advantage, I still only have Atlanta as a half-point better than the Panthers, so with the moneyline at +140, we're paying Darnold-induced bargain prices for a team with a defense that will be the best unit on the field.
Maybe it's a massive mistake or maybe a chance for personal growth. No, I'm not talking about the last month in the life of Urban Meyer. I'm referring to having the Bears in this slot until injuries to the defense soured me on a play that in past years I might stubbornly stick to (and still might ATS).
Instead, the Jacksonville Jaguars find their way into the RR MLP. Can they win consecutive games? With Geno Smith under center for the opponents, anything is possible. This is more of a Seahawks fade than support for Meyer's ability to prepare off a bye week.
Getting 13 days of preparation to face a team with just five days to recover from a season-crushing loss means we have to ignore the branding and reputation of both teams, especially given what we've seen from Pete Carroll lately. Look for Trevor Lawrence to pick apart the thinnest secondary the Seahawks have employed this millennium.
I'm not smart enough to know what Bill Belichick did to force Justin Herbert into a 26-for-53, 209-yard, two-interception performance in their meeting last season, but I know it did, in fact, happen in the 45-0 Patriots win. Now we add in the entire transplant Patriots-fan population of California - a group known to make some noise.
The Chargers are getting beat up on the ground, so a big game is on the horizon for Damien Harris, and Mac Jones will have opportunities to keep this game close. With the Chargers' history of special teams woes and Belichick's ability to find the hidden advantages, we'll take our chances on the Pats.
Our upset of the week elaborately explains why there's some value in the Saints here, so we won't belabor the point. We did so without mentioning Alvin Kamara or the Saints special teams, who each could crack a game-changing play at any time.
This is what the round-robin moneyline parlay is for - taking shots on big underdogs that can make your season instead of just your week. You may not want to put a full unit down on the 'dog to win outright, so you include it here, and it's only responsible for .7 units.
The handicap isn't that complicated. If the Chiefs can play 60 minutes against the Titans' defense and only score three points, then they're capable of anything against anyone. And if that's the case, then they can be beaten by anyone. In the Daniel Jones era, the Giants are much better against the spread on the road than at home, so +10 is certainly a play. If we expect a game inside of that number, getting a +350 price on the Giants being able to outscore the Chiefs is certainly valuable, especially with them poised to get reinforcements back on offense.
Here's how the odds shake down this week.
Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.