NFL Week 10 round-robin moneyline parlay: The 5 picks to click
On a night of chaos and confusion, Chicago fell just short of cashing the third leg of our round robin, and we have to take that as the cost of doing business. It was our sixth 2-3 outing of the season to go along with three winning weeks, and we are 24-21 overall on the moneyline.
How it works
We parlay five underdogs together in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we're going to use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for .1 units. If three teams pull off the upset like in Week 8, you'll likely double your money. If four teams win, as they did in Week 3, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win, as they did in Week 1, then it's back into the pool, swimming in gold doubloons like heirs to the McDuck fortune.
Who to play
The Titans' defensive line worked over the Rams' offensive line last week, and it caused massive mistakes that led to 14 Tennessee points. Unlike Los Angeles, the Saints' strength comes from protection and a more conservative scheme. They won't give away points as the Rams did.
The Titans will be required to generate offense on their own, which they didn't do last week despite the victory. Ryan Tannehill threw for just 147 yards and Adrian Peterson was way too involved in the run game. Now, they meet a Saints team that leads the league in rush defense.
Everything we know about the NFL tells us that once a team starts getting talked about as a powerhouse, it's time to fade them. Keep in mind, it wasn't long ago that no one was giving the Titans a shot to beat the Bills at home on Monday Night Football. We'll trust Sean Payton again as an underdog to get the win. A Saints victory would be a more surprising result than it seems, given the short point spread.
With a handful of short underdogs, we need one big one to include in order to increase the potential payout.
I went in-depth into why I think the Lions are live to beat the Steelers in my upset of the week, so you can get the analysis there. If last week showed us anything, it's that dismissing any potential upset is a fundamental mistake, let alone for a game that's not even lined above double digits.
I've had this game circled on my board for a few weeks now. As much as I like what the Chargers have done this season, this is a prime spot to back the Vikings. Minnesota fans will tell you that they are traditionally live once all hope seems lost.
The Vikings will be able to run the ball on the Chargers, as all teams do, but even more problematic for L.A. is its banged-up secondary charged with covering Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. Both teams will score a ton here, but in a high variance game, backing the underdog here is the play.
The Broncos are riding high after destroying the Cowboys, but that was more about Dallas not showing up after a big win. The true identity of Denver is a conservative offense with line injuries, facing an Eagles defensive front that will get pressure on Teddy Bridgewater.
Offensively, this should look a lot like the Broncos' matchup with Washington from two weeks ago, with both teams struggling to score points. I expect Jalen Hurts to do enough on the ground to keep this game close, and with it likely coming down to a field goal, I'll take Philadelphia at plus-money to get back in the win column.
Even if you're with me on the Lions and Saints, I can see how you'd think this might be a bridge too far. No one was more disappointed in the 49ers last week than I was, but one of the worst things you can do as a bettor is automatically write off a team if they lost you money. Value is created by others irrationally selling. Without last week's catastrophe against the Cardinals, this game would likely be lined below the key number of -3.
Many of the NFL's surprising results manifest due to matchups. We've seen how the Saints were able to win a good matchup against the Buccaneers and then lose a bad matchup to the Falcons. San Francisco has won four straight against the Rams, often as an underdog.
If the 49ers can avoid fumbles amidst promising drives, as they repeatedly suffered last week, they will be live to beat a team they've owned the last two seasons.
Here's how the odds shake down this week:
Who are your five underdogs for a football betting lottery ticket?
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.