How HR/FB Ratio Can Affect Future Fantasy Value
Baseball is a game of skill, but also a game of luck. When it comes to fly balls leaving the yard, some pitchers have been more fortunate more than others.
Stats like HR/FB ratio tend to even out over the course of a season, which can dramatically affect the fantasy value of some big name pitchers. Here are four hurlers whose worth is largely impacted by their HR/FB rates:
LHP Cole Hamels, Rangers
Hamels currently has an MLB-high HR/FB percentage of 24.5 among qualified major league pitchers, despite a career HR/FB rate of 11.4 percent. His 1.70 HR/9 is extremely high, considering his career average is 1.01.
This is strange considering he is inducing more ground balls than usual. His GB% of 51.8 would be the second best of his career and is well above his career mark of 44.3 percent.
A pitcher can control how many fly balls he allows based on pitch location and movement, but he doesn't control whether a ball hangs up on the warning track, or sails over the fence.
Some point to a move to the American League as reasoning for the increased HR/FB rate. Globe Life Park in Arlington has never been friendly to pitchers, but Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is a hitter's park, as well.
What's impressive is that Hamels still has a solid 3.39 ERA. Part of the reason is that 10 of the 12 homers he has allowed have been solo shots.
Coming off his worst start of the season, now is the best time to buy low on him. It will take a good offer considering his ERA is still low, but the best is still to come for him.
RHP Chris Archer, Rays
Archer's 20.0 HR/FB rate is the fourth-highest in the big leagues. His ground ball and fly ball percentages are right around his career average, yet he has an ERA of 4.62.
A sharp-breaking slider is Archer's go-to pitch, making it strange that 10 of his 12 home runs allowed have come against right-handed hitters, where his slider should give him a distinct advantage. In his career, lefties have given him slightly more trouble than righties.
However, it seems as though hitters have been laying off Archer's pitches more often than not. His O-Swing% (percentage of pitches swung at outside the zone) has dropped six points from a season ago. This has lead him to rely more heavily on his fastball, and batters aren't missing it.
Archer's wFA/C (fastball runs above average per 100 pitches) is minus-1.50, according to PITCH/FX via FanGraphs. His wFA/C was just 0.10 a season ago, but his off-speed pitches made up for it.
Archer is still racking up the strikeouts this season, but his walk rate is high. Hitters taking a more patient approach is a distinct correlation to his his inability to pitch deep into ball games and his tendency to allow big flies.
Even though Archer's HR/FB percentage will regress (how much is unclear), it would be far too risky to trade for him. If you own him, it wouldn't hurt to ask around and see what someone would give up. He is coming off his best start of the season - which can be a selling point - but still allowed two long balls. Pitching in the AL East doesn't do him any favors.
LHP Francisco Liriano, Pirates
Liriano has the second-highest HR/FB rate in the majors at 21.6 percent, a major deviation from his career mark of 11.2 percent.
Liriano's case is a bit different than most. For the last few seasons he has been a very effective pitcher despite having a below average F-Strike% (first pitch strike percentage). This season it has caught up to him.
Ever since coming to Pittsburgh, a two-seam fastball with plenty of tail and sink has made him an elite pitcher. He would start the pitch at the bottom of the zone and it would sink below leading to very few fly balls.
Hitters have made an adjustment this year. His O-Swing% has decreased by 6.4 percent compared to last season. This has led to K-BB% of 9.3 percent - nearly half of his 17.5 mark from a season ago.
The patient approach by hitters has forced him to bring his two-seamer up in the zone in order to get ahead. Anyone who has watched any sinkerballer over the years knows that when it stays up in the zone, it stays flat. When a sinker/two-seamer is flat, major league hitters will send it out of any ballpark.
Like Archer, Liriano still has value from his above average strikeout totals, but there simply isn't enough evidence to suggest he will turn his season around. If you own him, hang on to him for June and July, which have historically been his best months. Although, August and September haven't been all that kind to him, making an end-of-July trade ideal.
LHP Jose Quintana, White Sox
Unlike the previous three pitchers mentioned in this post, Quintana comes at the other end of the spectrum with a league-best 2.9 HR/FB percentage. In comparison, the lowest HR/FB rate recorded in a single season since 2010 was 3.7, registered by Matt Cain in 2011.
Expect Quintana's HR/FB rate to rise in short order.
Cain pitched at AT&T Park, one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball. U.S. Cellular Field, home of the White Sox, ranks 11th among the 30 MLB stadiums when it comes to hitting home runs, according to ESPN Park Factors. Last season, it ranked eighth, making it a distinct hitters park when it comes to hitting long balls.
One factor in determining whether or not a HR/FB rate is legitimate is looking at IFFB% (infield fly ball percentage). Rich Hill, for example, has the second lowest HR/FB rate. However, he pitches in an extreme pitchers park, and 16.7 percent of the fly balls he allows are infield flies, which obviously have no chance of leaving the yard.
Quintana sits 45th in IFFB% at 10 percent. This means that 10 percent of the 35.9 percent of fly balls he induces stay on the infield. This is not a big enough gap to think that he could sustain this inhuman HR/FB rate. For the record, his 35.9 fly ball percentage is the 66th-lowest in baseball - nothing special.
It would be smart to trade Quintana while his value is still through the roof. This isn't to say that he can't continue his career year, but he will certainly come down to earth sooner rather than later.