CFB Week 5 picks: Can Penn State finally win a big game?
If you're reading this to fade me after a less-than-ideal first four weeks, I can't blame you. But a turnaround is coming, starting with an incredible Week 5 slate that's been circled on the calendar since the summer. Apple-picking and other fall activities must wait because the only place to be Saturday is in front of a TV - ideally more than one - for 12 hours.
As usual, we'll break down the four biggest games of the weekend - all of which are ranked matchups Saturday - and then deliver our favorite bets beyond the marquee showdowns. Let's dive in.
π Check out all college football Week 5 lines on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here
Game time: 12 p.m. ET
π Pick: Illinois +6.5
The natural reaction to Indiana's 63-10 win over Illinois last Saturday would be to fade the Fighting Illini. But that was an uncharacteristically bad performance from Illinois, which never established its running game and couldn't stop a nosebleed defensively. Plus, Indiana is likely even better than last year's College Football Playoff squad after upgrading at quarterback.
Returning home will be a huge advantage for Illinois' offense and quarterback Luke Altmyer, who's been better at home than away throughout his career. USC is talented but hasn't faced much legitimate competition. Take Illinois in a bounce-back spot.
Game time: 3 p.m.
π Pick: Ole Miss -1.5
Here's an SEC matchup where you take the home team without hesitation. While this has the potential to be a classic, here's where the edge lies: LSU averages a measly 3.9 yards per carry, the 83rd-best mark. The Tigers rely too much on Garrett Nussmeier's arm. He has a cannon, but he's also prone to boneheaded decisions. Throwing the ball on most downs without a balanced rushing attack won't go well in a hostile road environment.
Ole Miss has two reliable quarterbacks: Austin Simmons when healthy, and backup quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who's recorded a passer rating above 180 in his last two games against power conference opponents. Whoever Lane Kiffin puts under center should find success against LSU's average passing defense.
Game time: 7:30 p.m.
π Pick: Alabama +3.5
Alabama's opening loss to Florida State isn't as egregious as it seemed at the time considering the Seminoles have emerged as a top-10 team and it was Ty Simpson's first career start on the road. The quarterback has made strides in the two games since, and Alabama dominated an awful Wisconsin group last time out.
Georgia hasn't had a typical Kirby Smart defense this season and surrendered 41 points to Tennessee in a win. The Crimson Tide should be similarly successful at moving the ball. Meanwhile, Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton has shown flashes as a passer, but Alabama's defense allows the nation's third-fewest passing yards.
Alabama has won six of the last seven meetings against Georgia. While most of those came with Nick Saban strutting the sidelines, Kalen DeBoer defeated the Bulldogs in his debut season. In a rivalry game that typically comes down to the final drives, I'm comfortable taking the underdog instead of laying a field goal plus the hook.
Game time: 7:30 p.m.
π Pick: Penn State -3.5
Throw all the James Franklin stats at me you want. I'm aware he's 4-20 as Penn State's coach against top-10 teams, which doesn't bode well against No. 6 Oregon. It's also impossible to evaluate this Penn State group after facing Nevada, FIU, and Villanova to open the season. However, the Nittany Lions are loaded with talent: a Heisman-contending quarterback, the nation's best running back duo, and a defense that includes future NFL players.
Oregon lost key personnel from its 2024 squad but appears to have fully retooled, having annihilated Oklahoma State, Northwestern, and Oregon State. The Ducks have faced stiffer competition than Penn State. Dante Moore has thrown nearly 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns, emerging as the third favorite to win the Heisman.
Despite all that, Penn State is at home in front of its annual White Out crowd, one of the world's best football atmospheres. At some point, Franklin has to win a big game. While this wouldn't be a season-defining victory, the home environment and Penn State's offensive edge should carry them to a cover.
π Check out all college football Week 5 lines on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here
Game time: 12 p.m.
π Pick: Notre Dame -3.5
Am I missing something? Notre Dame's two losses were against top-10 teams: Miami and Texas A&M. Maybe last year's group wouldn't have started 0-2, but there's no shame in those defeats. Notre Dame rebounded the following week to decimate Purdue 56-20. True freshman quarterback CJ Carr hasn't been perfect, but it's obvious why the program feels good about its future. The Fighting Irish still have the personnel and coaching staff of a top 20 team.
Meanwhile, Arkansas' program is lifeless and head coach Sam Pittman's seat is getting warmer. The team's lost two straight games to Ole Miss and Memphis. I'm not convinced heading home will help.
Game time: 12 p.m.
π Pick: Duke -5.5
After upsetting Clemson on the road, this is the ultimate letdown spot for Syracuse. Plus, the Orange's win over Clemson said more about the state of the Tigers - who lost to Georgia Tech the week prior and nearly lost to Troy before that - than how good Syracuse is. Remember, the Orange needed overtime to beat UConn earlier in September.
Duke is well-coached, and quarterback Darian Mensah can make highlight plays with his arm. The Blue Devils have made progress since Illinois blew them out, competing against Tulane and defeating NC State. This is the spot to take them.
Game time: 9 p.m.
π Pick: TCU +3.5
Led by quarterback Josh Hoover, TCU is second in the Big 12 in total offense and passing yards per game. The Horned Frogs should score easily against Arizona State's porous passing defense, which ranks outside the top 80. TCU has wins over North Carolina and SMU and has yet to score fewer than 35 points this season. Arizona State won't match that production.
Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.
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