We were supposed to be content with another 4-3 week. Then Texas Tech did something impressive, blocking a game-tying extra point. Unfortunately, that did the opposite of helping those of us with a Texas Tech -2.5 ticket. With a one-point lead, the subsequent Red Raiders drive ended with kneel-downs in victory formation instead of a game-winning, bet-covering field goal. While stewing about that, Nebraska (+6) - which never trailed - lost by seven in overtime. Hopefully, those will be our last bad beats of a season stamped by them as we look for seven more winners on the regular season's final Saturday.
No. 2 Ohio State @ No. 3 Michigan (-3.5, 46.5)
The lookahead line for "The Game" crept up close to a touchdown throughout the season as Michigan built a statistical resume as the only team in the top three in both offensive and defensive EPA/play and a mile ahead of the rest of the country in defensive early down success rate. Meanwhile, Ohio State lagged, particularly on offense, though it stayed undefeated and against better competition.
As the season's gone on, wins over Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and home to Penn State have lost some luster, but this line has tightened as the Buckeyes' defense helped them to convincing wins as Ohio State's schedule got easier.
Enough money came in on Ohio State to drop it as low as Michigan -3 before those wanting to take the Wolverines weighed in. The best of the number is gone, but the 3.5-point spread in the Big House implies that the Buckeyes are the better team. Even if the defense has started to dominate and TreVeyon Henderson is producing as OSU would've hoped, I prefer to trust J.J. McCarthy - even without Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines - to win somewhat convincingly.
Pick: Michigan (-3.5)
Middle Tennessee @ Sam Houston State (+3.5, 50.5)
Sam Houston State, new to FBS football this season, has only one win in Conference USA. However, five of its six losses have come in one-possession games, with the exception coming on the road at New Mexico State, a team that just won at Auburn.
Neither the Bearkats nor Middle Tennessee have anything to play for, both missing out on a bowl game this season. However, as part of its transition from the FCS to the FBS, Sam Houston knew this would be its final game. The Bearkats are building their program, looking ahead to future seasons, and are far more likely to beat the Blue Raiders than this line suggests.
Pick: Sam Houston State (+3.5)
Miami (OH) @ Ball State (+4, 35.5)
Ball State lost its first six FBS games of the season, but it turned to sophomore Kiael Kelly in the last of those games, which was a narrow loss to the MAC's best team, Toledo. The run-first quarterback has helped the Cardinals win three of four games, only losing by three points at Bowling Green.
Toledo's taking on Miami in the MAC championship game, so the Redhawks have little to play for this week. At the best of times, despite winning the East Division, the Redhawks' market rating isn't far from Central Michigan or Northern Illinois, two teams the Cardinals have beaten in the last month.
Pick: Ball State (+6.5)
Northwestern @ Illinois (-5.5, 47.5)
Backing Illinois' defense is a little scary, but Northwestern accomplished more than the market thought possible last week when it won its sixth game, qualifying for a bowl game in the process. The Wildcats were fortunate that Purdue's starting quarterback, Hudson Card, was a late scratch, but the Boilermakers outgained Northwestern anyway, only to commit five turnovers in Wildcat territory.
John Paddock's numbers couldn't match his 500-yard first start, but Iowa's defense will do that. With the Illini needing one more win for a postseason berth, we should expect them to put their best foot forward.
Pick: Illinois (-5.5)
Washington State @ No. 4 Washington (-15.5, 66.5)
Of the teams jostling in the College Football Playoff rankings, Washington's win on the road at Oregon State last week was one of the three most impressive wins of the season. That should set up a rematch with Oregon for a spot in the CFP next Friday.
First, there's the matter of the Apple Cup, which is usually just as important to Washington State. Except this year, the Cougars need to win this game to seal a berth in a bowl game. Cameron Ward and the Cougars' offense should be able to move the ball against the Huskies' defense, making this game potentially dicier than a point spread over two touchdowns suggests.
Pick: Washington State (+15.5)
No. 5 Florida State @ Florida (+6.5, 49.5)
Florida State and Florida are without their starting quarterbacks; that's why we're taking the points. FSU likely would've been just shy of being a 10-point road favorite with Jordan Travis at quarterback. We're betting that the Heisman candidate's absence is more valuable than that.
The pressure of needing a win is also immense for the Seminoles in a hostile environment.
Pick: Florida (+6.5)
Clemson @ South Carolina (+7.5, 49.5)
Clemson's the better team, but that's why it's favored by more than a touchdown on the road in the Palmetto Bowl. That was also the case last year when Spencer Rattler had 360 yards through the air against the Tigers' defense in Death Valley.
South Carolina is another five-win team trying to get to a bowl game, and even though its opponents haven't been the strongest, a three-game winning streak suggests it's trying to get there. Look for the Gamecocks to pull out all the stops, emptying Shane Beamer's bag of trick plays.
Pick: South Carolina (+7.5)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
