CFB Week 12 best bets: Looking for value in the season's penultimate week

It was another 4-3 run in Week 11, and it's still not boring. Our weekly complaint: The unlikely circumstance of Illinois finding a quarterback capable of throwing for 507 yards but still not covering -6.5 against Indiana and its 109th-ranked offense (EPA/play). This acts as a reminder that Illinois' defense is 108th in EPA/play, and teams that bad defensively can't be trusted against anyone.

East Carolina @ Navy (-3, 31.5)

East Carolina might have the worst offense in the country (last in early down success rate), but it's Navy that might not score in this game.

The Pirates can defend, as only Michigan and Penn State have a better early down success rate, and their bread-and-butter is defending the run. Only three teams have a better EPA/play against the rush.

Navy doesn't do anything well on offense, but relatively speaking, it's better at running the ball as it's spent the season transitioning away from a traditional triple-option attack. The Midshipmen scored last week against UAB's run defense, which ranks second-last in the nation and allowed 269 yards on the ground. That won't happen this week.

Pick: East Carolina (+3)

Coastal Carolina @ Army (+3.5, 43.5)

Let's bring appeals and legislation into the handicap. That should be fun!

Bear with me.

When the NCAA denied James Madison's appeal for inclusion into postseason play, Coastal Carolina's place in the Sun Belt title game was clinched, as the Chanticleers have the tiebreaker over Appalachian State. Before then, Coastal Carolina goes up against the Dukes next week, which will be treated as something of a grudge match for JMU. But first, Coastal Carolina has this non-conference visit to Army.

The Black Knights need this to set up a chance for bowl eligibility in the Army-Navy game, and Coastal Carolina isn't going to be desperate to defend the triple-option for 60 minutes with nothing on the line.

The Chants' win streak has their rating creeping back to where it was when Grayson McCall was healthy, but it doesn't look like the pro prospect is coming back.

Pick: Army (+3.5)

Appalachian State @ No. 18 James Madison (-9, 56.5)

Since not enough teams are currently projected to qualify for a bowl game by winning six games, James Madison (and Jacksonville State) will be next on the call sheet, regardless of FBS entry stipulations. So, the Dukes should still get the postseason spotlight. They want to keep their undefeated season alive, so if an NCAA ruling is why the line dropped under -10, that's a mistake.

If there's one thing JMU doesn't do well, it's run the football. However, App State has the 131st rushing defense in the country by EPA/play. Back the aggrieved Dukes for another big win.

Pick: James Madison (-9)

No. 22 North Carolina @ Clemson (-7.5, 59.5)

Ever since Dabo Swinney fumed on his radio show, his Clemson team has responded with convincing wins over Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. It's amazing how much more efficient the Tigers can be when the offense doesn't literally drop the ball, and you can bump their rating back closer to where it was before the season.

The Tigers should be able to march up and down the field against North Carolina's defense, which has completely checked out, giving up 47 points to Georgia Tech and 45 to someone named Grayson Loftis last week.

Drake Maye is a theoretically scary fade, but the Tigers completely shut him down in the ACC championship game last season.

Pick: Clemson (-7.5)

Central Florida @ Texas Tech (-2.5, 59.5)

Things could have fallen apart in Lubbock after painfully close losses early in the season and then a defeat to BYU. But all of a sudden, Texas Tech can salvage a bowl berth with a win this week thanks to wins over TCU and Kansas. The Red Raiders are still playing hard for Joey McGuire.

Central Florida won easily for us last week, jumping on Oklahoma State and its Bedlam hangover, able to run for almost 300 yards in a driving rain storm. However, the Knights' bad defense won't travel well this week, and Texas Tech punches its postseason ticket, forcing UCF to wait a week to do the same.

Pick: Texas Tech (-2.5)

No. 23 Kansas State @ Kansas (+9.5, 57.5)

Two things I don't like to do:

• Guess about injury-related quarterback availability
• Lay over a touchdown on the road in a game with comparable teams

In this case, though, I don't know that I care whether Jason Bean can play on Saturday. Outside of spotting Texas a 27-7 halftime lead in Austin, Kansas State has outscored everyone from the Longhorns to Texas Tech by 147 points in the other nine quarters. Last season, Kansas had Jalon Daniels, and the Wildcats won by 20.

If Bean can play, I think we're still OK. If it's Cole Ballard, the Jayhawks have no shot against the wagon that is K-State.

Pick: Kansas State (-9.5)

Nebraska @ Wisconsin (-5.5, 36.5)

If Nebraska wants to lose a third straight game by a field goal, that's fine by me. Maybe those losses to Michigan State and Maryland are enough to make bettors believe that the Huskers are notably worse than Wisconsin, but don't be fooled; the Badgers are awful.

If the Huskers don't turn the ball over five times - an admittedly big ask - this should be a classically ugly close game between two teams that are virtually identical at this point in the season.

Pick: Nebraska (+5.5)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.