CBB contenders and pretenders: Where do UConn, Florida, Duke land?

The Week 6 AP Poll marks a critical juncture for college basketball fans, offering an early indicator of which teams might be legitimate national title contenders. In one of the most bizarre streaks in sports, the last 21 March Madness champions - and 35 of the past 36 - were ranked in the top 12 of the Week 6 AP Poll. Based on this trend, here are the programs with a chance to win:

1. Arizona
2. Michigan
3. Duke
4. Iowa State
5. UConn
6. Purdue
7. Houston
8. Gonzaga
9. Michigan State
10. BYU
11. Louisville
12. Alabama

While one of those teams will likely emerge as champion, the rankings don't completely align with the favorites on theScore Bet. Let's look at the oddsboard and break down several contenders and pretenders.

National title odds

🏀 You can find full college basketball title odds on theScore Bet here

Contenders

Michigan (+400)

Michigan is 9-0 and decimating opponents by an average margin of 28 points. The Wolverines must have scheduled a weak nonconference slate, right? Think again. They've faced the nation's eighth-most difficult schedule so far, per KenPom, and beat Gonzaga and Auburn, two top-25 teams, by 40 and 30, respectively.

Yaxel Lendeborg is one of the country's best players, leading a Michigan squad loaded with lethal shooters and impressive depth in the frontcourt and backcourt. With Michigan boasting eight players averaging at least seven points, this balanced roster is built for March.

UConn (+1000)

UConn has answered nearly every challenge this season, beating No. 10 BYU, No. 13 Illinois, No. 19 Kansas, and No. 18 Florida. The Huskies' only setback was a four-point loss to No. 1 Arizona. That's not a bad resume entering Big East play, especially since the conference appears weaker than usual this season.

Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed Jr. create a dangerous frontcourt duo for UConn, while Solo Ball, Silar Demary Jr., and Malachi Smith provide a backcourt spark. After the Huskies' defense ranked outside the top 70 last season, Dan Hurley's emphasis on that end has led them to rise to seventh in the defensive rankings. UConn's perfect blend of returners and transfers has them back in the title hunt.

Iowa State (+1300)

Iowa State is the only team ranked in the top six for both offense and defense. The Cyclones have shown their strength on both sides, notably picking up a one-point victory over St. John's and a 23-point win over Purdue.

They also have the nation's third-best 3-point percentage and a balanced attack with Tamin Lipsey running the show, while Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson provide versatile scoring. No team has a better balance on both ends than Iowa State, making it worthy of a ticket.

Michigan State (+2800)

Featuring a top-five defense and a top-10 rebounding unit, this is a classic Tom Izzo squad. The experienced Spartans rely on physicality and defensive prowess to wear down opponents, which has led to wins over Arkansas, Kentucky, and North Carolina this season. Their lone loss came against Duke last weekend, but Izzo's teams typically improve as the year progresses, peaking as the regular season concludes.

Jeremy Fears is one of the nation's best point guards, excelling as a true pass-first floor general who organizes the offense. He's averaging 9.8 assists, the most in the country, and has the championship DNA to help Michigan State make a run. The Spartans are worth a bet now before this price drops as they roll through Big Ten play.

Pretenders

Duke (+1000)

You might be shocked to see 10-0 Duke on the pretenders list with wins over Kansas, Arkansas, Florida, and Michigan State. The program also rosters a National Player of the Year candidate in Cam Boozer. But here's the concern: seven of the Blue Devils' rotation players are either freshmen or sophomores. As the average age of college players has increased, winning a title with inexperience has become much harder. Duke had three freshmen on last season's squad who were ultimately drafted in the top 10, and that Blue Devils team was more talented than this one. And despite the school's run to the Final Four in the previous campaign, inexperience eventually led to a historic collapse.

Duke is talented enough to win a ton of games and earn a top seed in the tournament, but don't just fall in line with the public here. Duke has received the third-most national title tickets on theScore Bet behind Michigan and Purdue.

Kansas (+3300)

Kansas shouldn't even qualify as a contender because it's outside the top 12 of this week's AP Poll. However, with potential No. 1 overall pick Darryn Peterson returning this weekend after a month-long absence, Kansas' losses against Duke and UConn shouldn't be held against the Jayhawks.

Still, Kansas doesn't have enough beyond Peterson to be considered a contender. It can compete for a Big 12 title, but its depth and offensive arsenal - currently ranked outside the top 40 - doesn't compare to other top contenders.

Florida (+2500)

Florida also isn't in the top 12 of this week's AP Poll, but it has one of the 12 best odds to win the title. The Gators' 5-4 record shouldn't concern anyone, as three of those losses came against Arizona, Duke, and UConn - all top-five teams. Although they're talented enough to compete in the SEC, the defending champs lost too many reliable guards to make a title run.

Thomas Haugh has emerged as the centerpiece of Florida's offense, showcasing his talent as a skilled big man. However, Walter Clayton Jr., Will Richard, and Alijah Martin are all gone, and the trio combined to average 46 points per game last season for the Gators. This year, the team's top three scoring guards - Boogie Fland, Xaivian Lee, and Urban Klavzar - are contributing a combined 30.8 points per contest. Florida plays through its bigs, but elite guard play is essential in March.

Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more basketball coverage.

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