NBA Finals MVP betting: Could Jalen Williams catch SGA?

As the Thunder pulled away from the Pacers late in the fourth quarter of a critical Game 5 on Monday, Oklahoma City ran a four-down set to gift Jalen Williams an isolation against Aaron Nesmith. Typically, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander earns the spotlight, but this was Williams' night. He got to his spot on the left elbow, used footwork to create space, and drilled a fadeaway mid-range jumper to reach a playoff career-high 40 points in the most important game of his career.

Gilgeous-Alexander, who still scored 31 points, took a rare back seat to his co-star. Williams' sensational Finals performance has come at a critical juncture, not only because it's basketball's biggest stage, but the Pacers have hounded SGA, at times wearing him out to the point of visible exhaustion.

The Thunder have adjusted by assigning Gilgeous-Alexander more off-ball reps as relief from initiating the offense against Indiana's full-court pressure. Many of those primary ball-handling opportunities have been transferred to Williams, who's averaging 25.8 points per game, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists in the Finals.

Could Williams, once an afterthought to capture Finals MVP even if the Thunder won, upstage SGA and become the youngest player to win the award since 22-year-old Kawhi Leonard in 2014? The third-year All-Star still sits below his teammate on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet's oddsboard, but the gap has dramatically closed as OKC attempts to close out the series Thursday.

Finals MVP odds

Gilgeous-Alexander leads Oklahoma City in scoring, averaging 32.4 points against Indiana. His monstrous 15-point fourth quarter in Game 4 was a defining moment of the series after he struggled through three quarters. He willed the Thunder, who were on the brink of falling behind 3-1, to a comeback victory.

The Thunder's offensive operation hinges on Gilgeous-Alexander's brilliance. The three-time All-Star deserves to win the award, but that doesn't mean he will. Williams' emergence is driving headlines, and narratives often swing how the 11 Finals MVP voters, comprised of selected media members, cast their ballots.

Williams has overcome postseason demons to become an unstoppable force. After catapulting to the No. 1 seed last year, the Thunder gained playoff scars - as most eventual champions do - against the Mavericks in the second round.

Gilgeous-Alexander was magnificent against Dallas, averaging an efficient 32 points and 7.3 assists. His supporting cast, including Williams, let him down. In his first playoff action, Williams averaged 17 points on 42% shooting and had multiple games with fewer than 15. But it's common for an emerging star to struggle with increased physicality and more detailed game plans in their postseason debut.

The same issues materialized in this year's second-round matchup against the Nuggets. Williams finished with 10 points in Game 4 and six points in Game 6. He shot 37% from the field in the series. However, in Game 7, his 24 points and seven assists were vital as the Thunder overpowered the Nuggets. Since then, Williams has been on a dominant stretch.

The 12th pick in the 2022 draft has developed into a player with no flaws. He's excellent in spot-up roles and attacking closeouts. He has smart cutting instincts. He can flourish on the ball and has become a forceful driver who can finish on both sides with either hand. His combination of usage and production on a championship team is unprecedented for someone with such little experience.

He's carried a large offensive workload while remaining a tenacious defender, troubling Pascal Siakam throughout the Finals. His two-way ability could help his MVP candidacy. And although Williams' numbers trail Gilgeous-Alexander's, history says voters could snub the league MVP and give Williams the Bill Russell Trophy.

Voters have a propensity to reward the underdog instead of the best player when the opportunity presents itself. Andre Iguodala won the 2015 Finals MVP over Steph Curry despite the latter leading the team in scoring by a massive margin. Curry didn't play up to his standard, and Iguodala's defense on LeBron James swung the voters.

Last June, Jaylen Brown won Finals MVP despite Jayson Tatum leading the team in points, rebounds, and assists. Brown had some huge outings in the series as the Mavericks crowded Tatum's drives to get the ball out of his hands (similar to the Pacers' approach with Gilgeous-Alexander).

More recently, Siakam unjustly won the Eastern Conference finals MVP over Tyrese Haliburton. While Siakam registered more points, Haliburton averaged more assists and rebounds and was indisputably the Pacers' most important player. Siakam's three games with at least 30 points, including a 39-point showing in Game 2, put him over the edge in voters' minds.

Williams' moment may have come to the tune of 40 points in Game 5.

Granted, a Thunder player isn't destined to take the award until they win the series. They lead 3-2, with Game 6 coming in Indianapolis. Oklahoma City is a -2000 series favorite as Haliburton deals with a calf injury that has him questionable for Thursday.

If the Thunder clinch their first championship in franchise history, watch for voters to avoid presenting the honor to the team's best player. Gilgeous-Alexander is heavily favored to become the first player to win the regular-season MVP and Finals MVP in the same season since James did so in 2013, but don't be shocked if Williams lifts the hardware instead.

Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.