The Spurs are growing up, Keegan Murray is stuck, NBA Cup matters

Welcome to From The Logo, a collection of opinions, analysis, and locker room insights from theScore's lead NBA reporter, Joseph Casciaro.

The Spurs have arrived

The NBA couldn't have asked for a better prime-time TV matchup than Spurs-Thunder on Saturday night in Las Vegas, with the winner headed to the NBA Cup final. Likewise, there's no team I'm more interested in seeing try to stop the OKC machine than San Antonio, especially if Victor Wembanyama returns to the lineup.

Given that Wembanyama was playing like an MVP candidate when he went down with a calf injury four weeks ago, most of us just hoped the Spurs could keep their heads above water. But San Antonio hasn't simply survived without Wembanyama, the team has thrived.

The Spurs are more balanced and vastly superior defensively with Wembanyama. Luke Kornet has held his own in the middle, but San Antonio has, predictably, given up more rim-attempts in the 12 games since Wembanyama was sidelined. And the team's defense with Wembanyama was probably even better than advertised, as the Spurs were quite unlucky when it came to opponents' 3-point percentage (39.1%) in the first 12 games of the season.

The offensive end is where the Wemby-less Spurs have made hay. The return of De'Aaron Fox from a hamstring injury just a week before Wembanyama's ailment couldn't have come at a better time. Fox has carried the load with the big man shelved. The 2023 All-Star is sporting a 29.2% usage rate, averaging 25.2 points and 6.5 assists on a career-high 61% true shooting, and his pull-up shooting, in particular, has been stunning. More than half of Fox's field-goal attempts have been of the pull-up variety, and he's shooting nearly 41% on pull-up threes.

That's a big development for a team that starts the non-shooting Stephon Castle in the same backcourt, but the collective rim-pressure created by the guard trio of Fox, Castle, and rookie Dylan Harper has fueled a relentless offense.

Fox's contract extension, which will see him earn roughly 30%-32% of the salary cap from 2026 through 2030, still seems steep, especially for a non-superstar in the age of aprons. But if he can keep this up, Spurs fans won't worry about the price tag. It will also help make one of the team's younger guards - be it Castle, Harper, or preferably Devin Vassell - more expendable in a trade for another All-Star.

Of course, this 9-3 stretch has been about more than just Fox's return. Harrison Barnes has provided timely shooting and veteran stability. Castle is a two-way menace. Harper's a future star. Vassell is a dead-eye shooter. Forwards Julian Champagnie and Keldon Johnson have been solid, no-frills role players. And head coach Mitch Johnson has command of things.

One possession during the Spurs' recent road victory over the Lakers encapsulated how this team has grown up over the last month. The Lakers had just trimmed what was once a 24-point Spurs lead down to eight with about four minutes to play, and the crowd in Los Angeles was rocking. It seemed like an obvious moment for a timeout, but Johnson trusted his team, and the Spurs rewarded him with a flawless possession. There was no panic as they attacked, whipped the ball around, forced the Lakers into rotation, and eventually silenced the crowd with a corner-three from Fox, who had smartly relocated on the play. The Lakers never got so close again.

None of what the Spurs have accomplished sans Wembanyama seems like the work of pixie dust. They may slow down slightly with their franchise big man back in the lineup, but even that recently increased pace has more to do with Fox's return than Wembanyama's absence. If San Antonio can just plug the best defensive player on the planet into its current setup, they have the makings of a top-five team.

There are still big-picture plans to figure out and long-term questions to answer as they continue to build around Wembanyama, but the Spurs' outlook is even brighter today than it was when Wemby went down a month ago.

What's up with Keegan Murray?

App user glegaree16307 wanted to know if Keegan Murray's improved defense and rebounding are sustainable, which gives us a chance to discuss the Kings forward in general.

Murray's length and basketball IQ have always given him a path to becoming a defensive difference-maker, so I don't see his increased production on that end (3.1 steals plus blocks per game and 3.1 deflections per game) suddenly falling off a cliff. As for his uptick in rebounding, that's mostly a product of his increased playing time, as his rebound rate (percentage of available rebounds grabbed) has been steady year over year.

Shockingly, the other end of the court is where Murray has disappointed. He looked great in his first few games after returning from a thumb injury, but has since regressed. Murray has been timid at times, and his woeful shooting is one of the league's biggest mysteries. The same guy who shot 41% from deep as a rookie after canning 40% of his 3-point attempts in his final year of college has seen his long-range efficiency dip to 35.8% as a sophomore, 34.3% last season, and a shocking 26.4% through nine games this season.

Nine games isn't worth panicking over, but we now have a multi-year sample suggesting Murray is a below-average shooter. That's concerning on some level, but I'm still buying Murray stock, and the Kings shouldn't be selling it.

Between his size (6-foot-8), age (25), defensive upside, and improved self-creation inside the arc, Murray still has the makings of a valuable player on a contract that will only pay him 15% of the cap annually through 2031. The Kings' goal should be to rid themselves of one-way veterans like Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Russell Westbrook, while squeezing what they can out of a Domantas Sabonis trade, then building around players like Murray, Keon Ellis, and whatever draft picks their continued futility produces.

Sacramento is a mess, but I don't think Murray is. Then again, perhaps the only way we'll see Murray develop into the type of star he's capable of being is if he lands elsewhere.

Inside the locker room

What I'm hearing from players and people around the Association.

The Cup matters (to coaches): Players still seem split on how much of the NBA Cup hype they buy into, but most coaches are in agreement that higher-stakes games early in the season are good for playoff-bound teams. "Any time you can manufacture any type of pressure throughout the course of the regular season, you try to do it," Knicks head coach Mike Brown told reporters before a quarterfinal victory in Toronto.

"I really dove in yesterday," Raptors coach Darko Rajakovic said before his shorthanded Raptors lost to Brown's Knicks. "My wife tried to talk to me a couple of times and it didn't work out. It felt a little bit like a playoff prep. That's what I like about games like this with big stakes."

Brown agreed: "It's as close to the playoffs as you can get during the regular season. It's a one-game elimination, which comes with pressure. You look forward to those challenges, especially if you're a competitor. If you're in position to feel any type of pressure at all, that's a privilege. You embrace it."

As I've said over the last three seasons, the in-season tournament has proven to be a win for the league in that it has added life to a formerly dead part of the schedule without taking away from the regular season, since every game except the final still counts in the traditional standings. The financial incentives motivate players - even highly-paid stars who want to put a few extra dollars in their less-accomplished teammates' pockets - and push coaches, while the packaged product is now a staple of the NBA's lucrative new media rights deal.

For what it's worth, the NBA said group play viewership rose 90% year over year.

Player of the week

Jalen Brunson: 32.7 PPG, 69.6% TS, 2.3 RPG, 5.7 APG, 3-0 Record

Jaylen Brown, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Luka Doncic were also in contention for theScore's award (which takes into account games played since last Friday). Those guys all had more complete stat lines, but Brunson basically averaged 33 points and six assists on 70% true shooting during a perfect week for the surging Knicks. His ability to consistently create for himself and finish the way he does at his size never ceases to amaze me. Tough as nails.

We want to hear from you!

Perhaps you want my opinion or insight on a burning NBA question you've had. Or, let me know if there's something specific you'd like me to ask your favorite player the next time they're in Toronto, where I speak with people from around the league before and after they play against the Raptors.

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