NBA Finals betting trends: Indy stars faltering, OKC depth stepping up

The Pacers escaped Oklahoma City with the series tied at one apiece. That's a win for Indiana, which was the biggest NBA Finals underdog since 2018. The Thunder opened the series as -700 favorites but have dropped to -550 on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet after two games.

Indiana remaining a massive underdog explains how fluky its Game 1 win was. The Pacers have had unlikely wins in every series, but the Thunder are talented enough to overcome a Game 1 collapse. After two games, this still appears like a lopsided matchup favoring the Thunder. Let's dive into some emerging trends heading into Wednesday night's Game 3.

OKC's defense disrupting Haliburton

Tyrese Haliburton's oft-debated admission into or exclusion from the superstar club is the most annoying conversation throughout the playoffs. The subjective classification doesn't matter, but the buzzword raises eyebrows in NBA discourse. Frankly, who cares?

Haliburton has been the Pacers' best player, leading them to an improbable Finals run by controlling the pace, creating for his teammates, and displaying absurd clutch shotmaking. And thus, Haliburton must play better for the Pacers to have a chance in this series.

He's averaging 15.5 points and six assists through two games, both of which would be his lowest averages in any playoff series of his career. Haliburton went under on his assist prop in both games and went under his points prop in Game 1. The All-NBAer had only five points through three quarters of Game 2 before a 12-point fourth quarter in a one-sided game cleared his Game 2 points prop. His Game 3 points prop is 17.5, and assist prop is 7.5.

While Haliburton's game-winner in Game 1 is the defining moment of the series so far, the smack-talking point guard has been lackluster offensively. He took only 13 shots in each game and hasn't attempted a free throw. Haliburton's aggression isn't only necessary for his scoring output, the Pacers struggle to generate clean looks without Haliburton's drive-and-kicks.

The Thunder's swarming defense deserves as much credit as Haliburton does blame. Oklahoma City has done an exceptional job of preventing dribble-drive penetration and limiting paint touches. The Thunder also apply aggressive ball pressure and have a higher pick-up point than the Pacers' previous opponents. Look at OKC's defense zeroing in on Haliburton, crowding his drives before he can enter the paint.

Both of the above possessions resulted in turnovers. Part of Haliburton's brilliance is his assist-to-turnover ratio. Despite playing fast, he rarely turns the ball over. In the Finals, he's accumulated eight turnovers.

Haliburton increasingly played off the ball later in Game 2, flying off various screens instead of initiating the offense. The Pacers are in trouble if Haliburton can't earn trips to the lane. But it might not matter how Indiana adjusts; Oklahoma City presents an unsolvable, nightmarish matchup for Haliburton.

Look for Siakam to be more aggressive

Jalen Williams is dominating his defensive assignment against Indiana's Pascal Siakam. Williams has guarded Siakam more than any other Thunder defender, and Siakam is shooting 14% from the field against him, per NBA Stats. Siakam hasn't taken advantage of smaller defenders when the Thunder cross-match.

Siakam shot 3-for-11 from the field in Game 2 and is shooting 38% in the series while averaging 17 points. He averaged nearly 25 points per game against the Knicks last series. He's typically great at punishing switches.

We can't mention the Pacers' offensive woes without acknowledging the Thunder's defensive tenacity. The Pacers often appear timid to throw post-entry passes to Siakam when he has a mismatch because of OKC's swarming defense that includes smaller defenders holding their own against post players.

Theoretically, the below image is the matchup the Pacers want with Siakam pinning Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. However, this pass from Myles Turner to Siakam resulted in a turnover as Gilgeous-Alexander swatted the entry pass into the hands of Lu Dort.

Instances also occurred where Siakam had a mismatch and faded instead of demanding the ball. Expect that to change moving forward. With Haliburton struggling, Siakam must carry the scoring load. Indiana will become creative in generating clean touches for Siakam. His points prop in Game 3 is 19.5, which he's failed to surpass this series.

Thunder's role players helping SGA

Gilgeous-Alexander's brilliance is the catalyst behind the Thunder's Finals run. He scored 38 and 34 points in Games 1 and 2, respectively, clearing his points prop in both contests. His Game 3 prop has been raised to 34.5. The Pacers could try to implement more zone to slow him down (like the Nuggets did in the second round), but the league MVP is masterful at finding his spots, operating in the mid-range, and drawing fouls.

In a news conference after Game 2, Gilgeous-Alexander said it isn't a "one-man show when you're in an NBA championship." His offensive help has come from some unlikely places in the first two games.

Williams is averaging an inefficient 18 points. Chet Holmgren disappeared in Game 1 before bouncing back with a 15-point showing in Game 2. Williams' Game 3 points prop is 21.5, and Holmgren's is 14.5. But the Thunder's depth has been their most dominant power all season.

Aaron Wiggins barely played in the final two games of the Western Conference finals. He played only nine minutes in Game 1 of the Finals, but scored 18 points in 21 minutes in Game 2. The Thunder have myriad contributors who can explode on any given night. Alex Caruso was the second-leading scorer in Game 2 with 20 points, and Dort had 15 points on five threes in Game 1. While the defensive attention is rightfully on Gilgeous-Alexander, he has many reliable teammates who can swing a game.

Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.